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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/london-sal=
es-analysis-march-2023

Welcome to the Artelligence Newsletter
Or welcome back if you=E2=80=99re a LiveArt subscriber=E2=80=94or have subs=
cribed to Art Market Monitor. This newsletter will provide all of the insig=
ht from Art Market Monitor with LiveArt=E2=80=99s data and broader perspect=
ive on the global art industry.=20
You should begin to get an email from us at least once a week=E2=80=94then =
more often when news or the calendar dictates.=20
We will also be experimenting with different formats. You=E2=80=99ll get wr=
itten articles, data from LiveArt=E2=80=99s auction coverage and analysis o=
f the art market. We will also provide you with links to interesting storie=
s we think you=E2=80=99ll benefit from reading=E2=80=94and our take on why =
it=E2=80=99s important.=20
Please feel free to forward the newsletter to anyone you think would like t=
o subscribe. If you don=E2=80=99t want or need another newsletter, feel fre=
e to unsubscribe. But we hope you=E2=80=99ll stick with us.=20
SELL TO MEET DEMAND: A qualified LiveArt collector is seeking a small or me=
dium Kitsch period portrait by Francis Picabia created from 1930 to 1953. T=
he budget is $200,000 - $600,000.
London Sales Down by 30% from 2022
While the world waits for an economic recession to begin, the art market=E2=
=80=99s pullback is already here. London=E2=80=99s sales were down nearly 3=
0% from 2022 in both the total sales volume and average price.=20
The 2023 London sales had a premium total of =C2=A3432 million ($519 millio=
n) with an average price of =C2=A3550,345 ($660,414.)=C2=A0 Not bad numbers=
 but they struggle against last year=E2=80=99s totals of $727 million at an=
 average price of $938,658.=C2=A0
Slightly more lots were offered this year in London=E2=80=948%=E2=80=94than=
 last year, but a lower sell-through rate of 89% this year versus 93% last =
year meant the total number of lots sold was only higher by a dozen.=C2=A0
The stat that matters most, hammer ratio (or the aggregate hammer price for=
 sold lots divided by the aggregate low estimate for all lots offered,) sli=
pped to 1.03 which is a neutral to weak market; however, that weakness may =
not be evenly distributed.
MISSED CONNECTION: A LiveArt Collector is looking for a specific artwork by=
 Ashley Bickerton, Le Art (1987) that came to auction in 2002.
There=E2=80=99s Always a Bull Market Somewhere
When we separate the 786 lots sold into quintiles of 157 lots each, the wea=
kness at the top of the market becomes clearest. The top 20% of lots, with =
an average estimate of =C2=A31.7m, sold for a hammer ratio of 1.1. That=E2=
=80=99s just above the low estimate.=C2=A0
Three of the other quintiles had hammer ratios around 1.24 which is moderat=
e to robust bidding for works with average estimates of =C2=A3143k, =C2=A32=
8k and =C2=A311.5k.=C2=A0
The strongest quintile was the middle one with an average estimate of =C2=
=A355k. Those works were bid to the upper part of the estimate range at a h=
ammer ratio of 1.32. That tells us the most active bidders are looking for =
works from artists with established markets but not strong ones.=20
For comparison, the top quintile of these sales was slightly weaker in 2022=
=2E That year the Middle High and Middle=20=
low quintiles saw hammer ratios of 1=
=2E93. This year the hammer ratio for those quintiles was 1.23.=20
A Flight to Nowhere
The conventional wisdom in the art market is that a recession will bring a =
flight to quality. It=E2=80=99s true that the auction houses brought some s=
ignificant works to these sales by bankable big names. It=E2=80=99s also tr=
ue that few of those sparked any real bidding.
The top lot, a restituted Kandinsky universally viewed as among his best wo=
rks, was sold to what looked like the guarantor. Sotheby=E2=80=99s very lar=
ge Richter abstract did provoke bidding above the announced expectations fo=
r the work. The $29 million final price was triple what the seller paid for=
 the work 16 years prior. But the sale would not reset the Richter market s=
ignificantly. Another Richter was withdrawn from Phillips sale. But Christi=
e=E2=80=99s was able to sell a much smaller abstract painting for $4.5 mill=
ion which is a price at the top of the spectrum for a small squeegee painti=
ng. Five other examples have sold at prices between $4 and $4.9 million.
Picasso=E2=80=99s painting of his daughter Maya came straight for a show at=
 the Mus=C3=A9e Picasso. It=E2=80=99s estimate was set attractively low. Th=
e picture performed admirably by selling for $21.7m with fees which was mor=
e than three times the price paid nearly a quarter century ago.
Works by Picasso, de Kooning, Delaunay and other quality names among the to=
p lots were sold for prices below the low estimate. Christie=E2=80=99s had =
hoped to turn buyers toward German Expressionism with the idea that the pri=
ces would be attractive compared to bigger names or even younger artists. B=
ut a superb work on paper by Otto Dix sold for $300,000. Thirty years earli=
er it had sold for $209,000 which would have been $430,000 in 2023 dollars.=
 That=E2=80=99s a great buy for a passionate collector but a bad return for=
 the seller.=C2=A0=C2=A0
Other tough sales were David Hockney=E2=80=99s small Santa Monica Boulevard=
 from 1979 which made $1.9 million in London four years after it was bought=
 for $2.4 million in New York. Pierre Bonnard=E2=80=99s Le Corsage Ray=C3=
=A9 from 1922 was purchased in New York in 2006 for $3.7 million. Twice sin=
ce that time it was bought-in at auction. Finally, the work was sold last w=
eek in London for $1.5 million.=C2=A0
A John Chamberlain sculpture, Sprayed Myopia from 1988 was bought in New Yo=
rk in 2016 for $1.9 million and sold last week in London for $1.6 million. =
Jeff Koons=E2=80=99s Cherubs from 1991 were auctioned in May 2012 for $722,=
500; it sold again this month for $580,414. Roman Opalka=E2=80=99s sublime =
panel from his one to infinity work sold for $764,091. The work was guarant=
eed and backed by an irrevocable bid. But that price was almost exactly the=
 price paid a decade earlier when it sold for $761,000.=20
It wasn=E2=80=99t only Modern works that lost value. Antony Gormley=E2=80=
=99s Hive I from 2006 lost 15% of its value over 10 years despite there bei=
ng a pronounced interest among collectors for his sculptures. Finally, even=
 with Philip Guston=E2=80=99s major show opening in Washington, DC last wee=
k, the much-traded Odessa from 1977 was sold for $4.7 million. It had been =
bought six years before for $4.9 million which was a significant rise from =
the $1.9 million paid in 2008.=C2=A0
COLORFUL CONDO: There is a request on the LiveArt Trading Floor for colorfu=
l works on paper by George Condo priced up to $400,000.=20
The New Stays Now
The expectation going into 2023 was that the market for young artists would=
 cool. Sotheby=E2=80=99s The Now sale reframed that conversation with stron=
g sales for artists like Mohammed Sami, Julien Nguyen, Michael Armitage, Em=
ma Webster, Jana Euler, Miriam Cahn and Chloe Wise. Similar artists at Chri=
stie=E2=80=99s and Phillips showed the demand for 21st Century painters rem=
ains strong.
Michaela Yearwood-Dan had two strong sales for works made in the last three=
 years. Her top lot, Love Me Nots from 2021 sold for a record $881,518. Her=
 previous record set in December was also buttressed by another sale within=
 the region at $330,000.=C2=A0
Caroline Walker=E2=80=99s market has been building with successive seasons.=
 Last October, two similar works set at night were sold for prices within a=
 stone=E2=80=99s throw of each other. This season, all three houses had wor=
ks by Walker and each of the works included a pool in the setting. Christie=
=E2=80=99s came first with a next-level $835,922 sale for The Puppeteer fro=
m 2013. Sotheby=E2=80=99s followed with a slightly darker image that made $=
748,809. The sunniest work, a symmetrical pool scene with a more muted narr=
ative than Walker=E2=80=99s best work, would ultimately become the artist=
=E2=80=99s auction record at $1.1 million for Threshold from 2014.=C2=A0
Claire Tabouret saw two similar debutante scenes from 2014 sell for $389,39=
3 and $638,341.=C2=A0Albert Willem and Duncan McCormick are two artists who=
 appeared multiple times on the list of works with the most dynamic bidding=
 in London. Each saw works offered in the low five figures that sold in the=
 low six figures. Emma Webster saw a bigger pop to $489,018.
Cecily Brown=E2=80=99s market has grown considerably over the last several =
years. Her plentiful works trade consistently. Clear price bands have emerg=
ed with a ceiling around $7 million. In 2021, three sales confirmed a top r=
ange of $6 million. Last week, another three works all traded in anticipati=
on of the Metropolitan Museum=E2=80=99s retrospective opening in early Apri=
l. The highest price work made $5.1 million at Christie=E2=80=99s. It had b=
een painted in 2014. Another 2014 work that had been offered privately stil=
l attracted bids at Sotheby=E2=80=99s and sold for a strong $4.1 million. I=
t was previously sold in Hong Kong in 2017 for $862,185. The third work had=
 a much longer sales history having been first offered in a day sale in 201=
0. It was sold in another day sale in 2013 for $483,750. Five years later, =
it sold again for $708,137. Another five years on, it sold last week at Phi=
llips for $2.6 million.
Brown=E2=80=99s price trajectory probably already has the Met retrospective=
 baked in. Her work trades now with the frequency of the Richter abstract m=
arket and its global appeal only helps support values. Over time, her marke=
t will likely account for much more volume in the Contemporary art market.
Can the Market Share?
Young artists, especially women, may get much of the attention from those f=
ollowing the auctions but the numbers tell a different story. Half of all o=
f the money spent on art in London was paid for work by a dozen artists. Ye=
t there was work by more than 425 different artists sold. So 50% of the spe=
nding focused on fewer than 3% of the artists. All but one of the dozen art=
ists were men. Cecily Brown was the only living artist on the list below th=
e age of 80.=C2=A0
Bidding may have been restrained for these artists=E2=80=99 works but the v=
alues are much higher than what most other artists can command. Even Brown =
has the advantage of a career that spans 30 years.=C2=A0
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<table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" =
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able role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" ce=
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!important; font-family: SF Pro Text, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, In=
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ef=3D"https://open.substack.com/pub/artelligence/p/london-sales-analysis-ma=
rch-2023?utm_source=3Demail&redirect=3Dapp-store" class=3D"tw-text-substack=
-secondary tw-underline" style=3D"-webkit-text-decoration-line: underline !=
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ntation" width=3D"auto" class=3D"header graphic-header" style=3D"border-spa=
cing: 0; padding: 16px 0 32px;"><tr><td align=3D"center" style=3D"padding: =
0; text-align: center;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoi=
aHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3AvbG9uZG9uLXNhbGVzLWFuYWx5c2l=
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AqQoAvacfL5JbpD77s_LmjUTVgP72J2rnUUnyk?"><img role=3D"presentation" width=
=3D"550" height=3D"110" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c=
_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-=
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0cef_1100x220.png" class=3D"header-image" style=3D"border: none !important;=
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lign: middle; width: 100%;"></a></td></tr></table><div dir=3D"auto" class=
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16px 0 0 0;"><div class=3D"post-header" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-heig=
ht: 26px;"><h1 class=3D"post-title published" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smooth=
ing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; co=
lor: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSys=
temFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 32px; font-weight: bol=
d; line-height: 36px; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link/=
post?publication_id=3D2259&post_id=3D106847785&utm_source=3Dpost-email-titl=
e&isFreemail=3Dtrue&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEwNjg=
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wic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.kVoBoVttw-MdUeZnwGdytsZH_ShyGCW3zpHBqKwzMRQ"=
 style=3D"color: #404040; text-decoration: none;">London Sales Analysis, Ma=
rch 2023</a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: s=
ubpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #=
808080; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFon=
t, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', '=
Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; l=
ine-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 12px;">Welcome to the Artell=
igence Newsletter </h3><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"post-meta" style=3D"ali=
gn-items: center; height: 20px; margin: 1em 0;"><tr><td><table role=3D"pres=
entation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><=
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=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div cla=
ss=3D"frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--20JLV frontend-pencraft-Text-mo=
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line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: upper=
case;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/8d10f66e-321a-4dbe-bcb9-a98=
6d4e2d52c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gW=
dY" style=3D"color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Text', 'SF Pro Text',=
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ry--2I-sF frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--3RRSj">Marion Maneker</a></d=
iv></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=
=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D=
"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"frontend-pencraft-Text-module__rese=
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    Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'S=
egoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 12px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.2px; =
line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: upper=
case;"><time dateTime=3D"2023-03-08T15:16:09.719Z">Mar 8</time></div></td><=
/tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation=
" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"=
email-ufi-2-top" style=3D"border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0; border-top: 1px=
 solid #e0e0e0; min-width: 100%;"><tr height=3D"16"><td height=3D"16" style=
=3D"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;">&#160;</td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D=
"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D=
"0"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellsp=
acing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><ta=
ble role=3D"presentation" width=3D"38" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellp=
adding=3D"0"><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-l=
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MTY4MDg4MDU5NSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTIyNTkiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.vcpiW3D7CZTwbg=
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table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" c=
ellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/a=
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th=3D"8" style=3D"min-width: 8px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;=
"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0=
" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://open.substa=
ck.com/pub/artelligence/p/london-sales-analysis-march-2023?utm_source=3Dema=
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EwNjg0Nzc4NSwiaWF0IjoxNjc4Mjg4NTk1LCJleHAiOjE2ODA4ODA1OTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yM=
jU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.kVoBoVttw-MdUeZnwGdytsZH_ShyGCW3zpHBqKw=
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'SF Pro Text', -apple-system, ui-sans-serif, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI'=
, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoj=
i', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 12px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 12px=
; padding: 9px 14px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: uppercase;"><di=
v class=3D"email-button-spacer" style=3D"display: inline-block; font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; max-width: 0; min-height: 18px; vertical-align: mi=
ddle;"></div><span class=3D"email-button-text" style=3D"vertical-align: mid=
dle;">&#9655;&#160;&#160;Listen</span></a></td></tr></table></td></tr></tab=
le></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr height=3D"16"><td height=3D"16" style=3D=
"font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;">&#160;</td></tr></table></div></div><div =
dir=3D"auto" class=3D"post typography" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 26px; padding: 16px 0 0 0;"><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D"body markup" styl=
e=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: i=
nitial; width: 100%; word-break: break-word;"><h2 class=3D"header-with-anch=
or-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-=
font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Comp=
act Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvet=
ica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sy=
mbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: =
1em 0 0.625em 0; margin-top: 0; position: relative;">Welcome to the Artelli=
gence Newsletter</h2><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-heig=
ht: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Or welcome back if you&#8217;re a </sp=
an><strong>LiveArt</strong><span> subscriber&#8212;or have subscribed to </=
span><strong>Art Market Monitor.</strong><span> This newsletter will provid=
e all of the insight from Art Market Monitor with LiveArt&#8217;s data and =
broader perspective on the global art industry. </span></p><p style=3D"colo=
r: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">You sh=
ould begin to get an email from us at least once a week&#8212;then more oft=
en when news or the calendar dictates. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font=
-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">We will also be experi=
menting with different formats. You&#8217;ll get written articles, data fro=
m LiveArt&#8217;s auction coverage and analysis of the art market. We will =
also provide you with links to interesting stories we think you&#8217;ll be=
nefit from reading&#8212;and our take on why it&#8217;s important. </p><p s=
tyle=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20p=
x 0;">Please feel free to forward the newsletter to anyone you think would =
like to subscribe. If you don&#8217;t want or need another newsletter, feel=
 free to unsubscribe. But we hope you&#8217;ll stick with us. </p><div styl=
e=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0;=
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color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><s=
trong>SELL TO MEET DEMAND:</strong><span> A qualified LiveArt collector is =
seeking a small or medium Kitsch period portrait by Francis Picabia created=
 from 1930 to 1953. The budget is $200,000 - $600,000.</span></p><p class=
=3D"button-wrapper" data-attrs=3D"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://liveart.io=
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t on Trading Floor&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" s=
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x 0; text-align: center;"><a class=3D"button primary" href=3D"https://subst=
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d-color: #653366; border: none; border-radius: 4px; box-sizing: border-box;=
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mily: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Ari=
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0; opacity: 1; outline: none; padding: 12px 20px; text-align: center; text-=
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<div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background:=
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'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Seg=
oe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; lin=
e-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">London Sale=
s Down by 30% from 2022</h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static"=
 style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure s=
tyle=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=
=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-pad=
ding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><=
td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"552" style=3D"text-align: cent=
er;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com=
/redirect/1afeea4d-bf3e-4ed5-9861-e6fb5d0e5ae2?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNh=
OM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel=3D"" style=3D"align-items: cen=
ter; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; ma=
rgin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto=
;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3=
=2Eamazonaws.com/public/images/3ca41be5-e=
d14-4c55-9b63-128935f91e65_1024x1024=
=2Epng&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,=
&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;hei=
ght&quot;:1024,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:552,&quot;byt=
es&quot;:170040,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot=
;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true=
,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt=3D"" width=3D"550" height=3D"550" =
class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1104,c_li=
mit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-med=
ia.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ca41be5-ed14-4c55-9b63-128935f91e6=
5_1024x1024.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !im=
portant; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; ma=
x-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !important;">=
</a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><figca=
ption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color: #808=
080; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -0.15px; line-heigh=
t: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-align=
: center; width: 70%;"></figcaption></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #4040=
40; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">While the worl=
d waits for an economic recession to begin, the art market&#8217;s pullback=
 is already here. London&#8217;s sales were down nearly 30% from 2022 in bo=
th the total sales volume and average price. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040=
; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>The 2023 L=
ondon sales had a premium total of </span><strong>&#163;432 million</strong=
><span> ($519 million) with an average price of &#163;550,345 ($660,414.)&#=
160; Not bad numbers but they struggle against last year&#8217;s totals of =
</span><strong>$727 million</strong><span> at an average price of $938,658.=
&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Slightly more lots were offered this year in Lon=
don&#8212;8%&#8212;than last year, but a lower sell-through rate of 89% thi=
s year versus 93% last year meant the total number of lots sold was only hi=
gher by a dozen.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line=
-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>The stat that matters most, hamme=
r ratio (or the aggregate hammer price for sold lots divided by the aggrega=
te low estimate for all lots offered,) slipped to </span><strong>1.03 which=
 is a neutral to weak market</strong><span>; however, that weakness may not=
 be evenly distributed.</span></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; marg=
in: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px;=
 line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>MISSED CONNECTION:</strong=
><span> A LiveArt Collector is looking for a specific artwork by Ashley Bic=
kerton, </span><em>Le Art</em><span> (1987) that came to auction in 2002.</=
span></p><p class=3D"button-wrapper" data-attrs=3D"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;h=
ttps://liveart.io/wishes/V2lzaGxpc3RUeXBlOjk5Mw=3D=3D&quot;,&quot;text&quot=
;:&quot;View Request on Trading Floor&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;c=
lass&quot;:null}" style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26=
px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: center;"><a class=3D"button primary" hr=
ef=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/d55d7d6f-0701-4f8c-be38-c79c1e50143a?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel=3D"=
" style=3D"background-color: #653366; border: none; border-radius: 4px; box=
-sizing: border-box; color: #ffffff !important; cursor: pointer; display: i=
nline-block; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Ro=
boto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', =
'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-he=
ight: 20px; margin: 0; opacity: 1; outline: none; padding: 12px 20px; text-=
align: center; text-decoration: none !important; white-space: nowrap;"><spa=
n style=3D"color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none;">View Request on Trading =
Floor</span></a></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr =
style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; pa=
dding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-=
font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-anti=
aliased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, =
BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Appl=
e Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; fo=
nt-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: re=
lative;">There&#8217;s Always a Bull Market Somewhere</h2><div class=3D"cap=
tioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;=
 margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table =
class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellp=
adding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=
=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D=
"540" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blan=
k" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/318f13dc-5e6d-4350-8534-a1dc98192a=
be?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel=
=3D"" style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-dire=
ction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; tex=
t-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot=
;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85769f66-d15b-4=
8d3-9134-fd97847a7135_1024x1024.png&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot=
;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1024,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;=
resizeWidth&quot;:540,&quot;bytes&quot;:100144,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;t=
itle&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:nul=
l,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt=3D"=
" width=3D"540" height=3D"540" class=3D"" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/im=
age/fetch/w_540,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F=
%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85769f66-d15b-4=
8d3-9134-fd97847a7135_1024x1024.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicub=
ic; border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; =
margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width=
: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></=
tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; l=
ine-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">When we separate the 786 lots sold i=
nto quintiles of 157 lots each, the weakness at the top of the market becom=
es clearest. The top 20% of lots, with an average estimate of &#163;1.7m, s=
old for a hammer ratio of 1.1. That&#8217;s just above the low estimate.&#1=
60;</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; marg=
in: 0 0 20px 0;">Three of the other quintiles had hammer ratios around 1.24=
 which is moderate to robust bidding for works with average estimates of &#=
163;143k, &#163;28k and &#163;11.5k.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; f=
ont-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The strongest quint=
ile was the middle one with an average estimate of &#163;55k. Those works w=
ere bid to the upper part of the estimate range at a hammer ratio of 1.32. =
That tells us the most active bidders are looking for works from artists wi=
th established markets but not strong ones. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040;=
 font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">For comparison, t=
he top quintile of these sales was slightly weaker in 2022. That year the M=
iddle High and Middle low quintiles saw hammer ratios of 1.93. This year th=
e hammer ratio for those quintiles was 1.23. </p><div style=3D"font-size: 1=
6px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; he=
ight: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anch=
or-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-=
font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Comp=
act Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvet=
ica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sy=
mbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: =
1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;"><strong>A Flight to Nowhere</strong><=
/h2><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin:=
 0 0 20px 0;">The conventional wisdom in the art market is that a recession=
 will bring a flight to quality. It&#8217;s true that the auction houses br=
ought some significant works to these sales by bankable big names. It&#8217=
;s also true that few of those sparked any real bidding.</p><p style=3D"col=
or: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span=
>The top lot, a restituted </span><strong>Kandinsky</strong><span> universa=
lly viewed as among his best works, was sold to what looked like the guaran=
tor. Sotheby&#8217;s very large </span><strong>Richter</strong><span> abstr=
act did provoke bidding above the announced expectations for the work. The =
$29 million final price was triple what the seller paid for the work 16 yea=
rs prior. But the sale would not reset the Richter market significantly. An=
other Richter was withdrawn from Phillips sale. But Christie&#8217;s was ab=
le to sell a much smaller abstract painting for $4.5 million which is a pri=
ce at the top of the spectrum for a small squeegee painting. Five other exa=
mples have sold at prices between $4 and $4.9 million.</span></p><p style=
=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;=
"><strong>Picasso</strong><span>&#8217;s painting of his daughter Maya came=
 straight for a show at the Mus&#233;e Picasso. It&#8217;s estimate was set=
 attractively low. The picture performed admirably by selling for $21.7m wi=
th fees which was more than three times the price paid nearly a quarter cen=
tury ago.</span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Works by Picasso, de Kooning, Delaunay =
and other quality names among the top lots were sold for prices below the l=
ow estimate. Christie&#8217;s had hoped to turn buyers toward German Expres=
sionism with the idea that the prices would be attractive compared to bigge=
r names or even younger artists. But a superb work on paper by </span><stro=
ng>Otto Dix</strong><span> sold for $300,000. Thirty years earlier it had s=
old for $209,000 which would have been $430,000 in 2023 dollars. That&#8217=
;s a great buy for a passionate collector but a bad return for the seller.&=
#160;&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Other tough sales were </span><strong=
>David Hockney</strong><span>&#8217;s small </span><em>Santa Monica Bouleva=
rd </em><span>from 1979 which made $1.9 million in London four years after =
it was bought for $2.4 million in New York. </span><strong>Pierre Bonnard</=
strong><span>&#8217;s </span><em>Le Corsage Ray&#233; </em><span>from 1922 =
was purchased in New York in 2006 for $3.7 million. Twice since that time i=
t was bought-in at auction. Finally, the work was sold last week in London =
for $1.5 million.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16=
px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>A </span><strong>John Cha=
mberlain</strong><span> sculpture, </span><em>Sprayed Myopia</em><span> fro=
m 1988 was bought in New York in 2016 for $1.9 million and sold last week i=
n London for $1.6 million. </span><strong>Jeff Koons</strong><span>&#8217;s=
 </span><em>Cherubs</em><span> from 1991 were auctioned in May 2012 for $72=
2,500; it sold again this month for $580,414. </span><strong>Roman Opalka</=
strong><span>&#8217;s sublime panel from his one to infinity work sold for =
$764,091. The work was guaranteed and backed by an irrevocable bid. But tha=
t price was almost exactly the price paid a decade earlier when it sold for=
 $761,000. </span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>It wasn&#8217;t only Modern works tha=
t lost value. </span><strong>Antony Gormley</strong><span>&#8217;s </span><=
em>Hive I </em><span>from 2006 lost 15% of its value over 10 years despite =
there being a pronounced interest among collectors for his sculptures. Fina=
lly, even with</span><strong> Philip Guston</strong><span>&#8217;s major sh=
ow opening in Washington, DC last week, the much-traded </span><em>Odessa</=
em><span> from 1977 was sold for $4.7 million. It had been bought six years=
 before for $4.9 million which was a significant rise from the $1.9 million=
 paid in 2008.&#160;</span></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin:=
 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; li=
ne-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>COLORFUL CONDO: </strong><spa=
n>There is a request on the LiveArt Trading Floor for colorful works on pap=
er by George Condo priced up to $400,000. </span></p><p class=3D"button-wra=
pper" data-attrs=3D"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://liveart.io/wishes/V2lzaG=
xpc3RUeXBlOjEwNDk=3D&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;View Request on Trading F=
loor&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" style=3D"color:=
 #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-alig=
n: center;"><a class=3D"button primary" href=3D"https://substack.com/redire=
ct/80dd3dca-d857-4872-bbcf-21869a1c70af?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0=
jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel=3D"" style=3D"background-color: #6533=
66; border: none; border-radius: 4px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #fffff=
f !important; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: -apple-s=
ystem, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif=
, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 14px=
; font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; opacity: 1;=
 outline: none; padding: 12px 20px; text-align: center; text-decoration: no=
ne !important; white-space: nowrap;"><span style=3D"color: #ffffff; text-de=
coration: none;">View Request on Trading Floor</span></a></p><div style=3D"=
font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; bord=
er: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"head=
er-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialias=
ed; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-fami=
ly: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Ro=
boto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', =
'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16=
em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;"><strong>The New Stays Now=
</strong></h2><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26p=
x; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The expectation going into 2023 was that the market=
 for young artists would cool. Sotheby&#8217;s The Now sale reframed that c=
onversation with strong sales for artists like Mohammed Sami, Julien Nguyen=
, Michael Armitage, Emma Webster, Jana Euler, Miriam Cahn and Chloe Wise. S=
imilar artists at Christie&#8217;s and Phillips showed the demand for 21st =
Century painters remains strong.</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>Michaela Yearwood-Dan=
</strong><span> had two strong sales for works made in the last three years=
=2E Her top lot, </span><em>Love Me Nots<=
/em><span> from 2021 sold for a reco=
rd $881,518. Her previous record set in December was also buttressed by ano=
ther sale within the region at $330,000.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color:=
 #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>=
Caroline Walker</strong><span>&#8217;s market has been building with succes=
sive seasons. Last October, two similar works set at night were sold for pr=
ices within a stone&#8217;s throw of each other. This season, all three hou=
ses had works by Walker and each of the works included a pool in the settin=
g. Christie&#8217;s came first with a next-level $835,922 sale for </span><=
em>The Puppeteer</em><span> from 2013. Sotheby&#8217;s followed with a slig=
htly darker image that made $748,809. The sunniest work, a symmetrical pool=
 scene with a more muted narrative than Walker&#8217;s best work, would ult=
imately become the artist&#8217;s auction record at $1.1 million for </span=
><em>Threshold</em><span> from 2014.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: #40=
4040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>Clai=
re Tabouret</strong><span> saw two similar debutante scenes from 2014 sell =
for $389,393 and $638,341.&#160;</span><strong>Albert Willem</strong><span>=
 and </span><strong>Duncan McCormick </strong><span>are two artists who app=
eared multiple times on the list of works with the most dynamic bidding in =
London. Each saw works offered in the low five figures that sold in the low=
 six figures. </span><strong>Emma Webster</strong><span> saw a bigger pop t=
o $489,018.</span></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><strong>Cecily Brown</strong><span>&#8217;s=
 market has grown considerably over the last several years. Her plentiful w=
orks trade consistently. Clear price bands have emerged with a ceiling arou=
nd $7 million. In 2021, three sales confirmed a top range of $6 million. La=
st week, another three works all traded in anticipation of the Metropolitan=
 Museum&#8217;s retrospective opening in early April. The highest price wor=
k made $5.1 million at Christie&#8217;s. It had been painted in 2014. Anoth=
er 2014 work that had been offered privately still attracted bids at Sotheb=
y&#8217;s and sold for a strong $4.1 million. It was previously sold in Hon=
g Kong in 2017 for $862,185. The third work had a much longer sales history=
 having been first offered in a day sale in 2010. It was sold in another da=
y sale in 2013 for $483,750. Five years later, it sold again for $708,137. =
Another five years on, it sold last week at Phillips for $2.6 million.</spa=
n></p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margi=
n: 0 0 20px 0;">Brown&#8217;s price trajectory probably already has the Met=
 retrospective baked in. Her work trades now with the frequency of the Rich=
ter abstract market and its global appeal only helps support values. Over t=
ime, her market will likely account for much more volume in the Contemporar=
y art market.</p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr sty=
le=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; paddi=
ng: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-fon=
t-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antiali=
ased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, Bli=
nkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple C=
olor Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-=
weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relat=
ive;"><strong>Can the Market Share?</strong></h2><div class=3D"captioned-im=
age-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"=
image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D=
"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-al=
ign: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"580" style=
=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"=
https://substack.com/redirect/66361620-643c-47e4-ba08-cfded8298453?j=3DeyJ1=
IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel=3D"" style=
=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: colu=
mn; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoratio=
n: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://su=
bstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17f76c94-e260-4cc4-a9f8-c6=
8019a18b48_1024x1024.png&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&=
quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1024,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth=
&quot;:580,&quot;bytes&quot;:219066,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:=
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margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width=
: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></=
tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; l=
ine-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Young artists, especially women, may=
 get much of the attention from those following the auctions but the number=
s tell a different story. Half of all of the money spent on art in London w=
as paid for work by a dozen artists. Yet there was work by more than 425 di=
fferent artists sold. So 50% of the spending focused on fewer than 3% of th=
e artists. All but one of the dozen artists were men. Cecily Brown was the =
only living artist on the list below the age of 80.&#160;</p><p style=3D"co=
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ing may have been restrained for these artists&#8217; works but the values =
are much higher than what most other artists can command. Even Brown has th=
e advantage of a career that spans 30 years.&#160;</p><div class=3D"subscri=
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