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Subject: After Action Report: Christie's 20th Century Evening Sale + Newhouse
Collection
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/after-acti=
on-report-christies-20th
The Artelligence newsletter comes out every Friday with What We Learned thi=
s Week. Depending on the art market calendar or news cycle, you will receiv=
e other emails from this account on an irregular basis.
We are eager to hear from you. If you have questions, tips or suggestions f=
or coverage, contact us here [ mailto:maneker@artmarketmonitor.com ]. Feel =
free to forward the email to anyone you think would like to subscribe.
Some new subscribers may not receive the newsletter in their inbox immediat=
ely. Please check your spam folder.
In This Issue
The Dial: Neutral=20
About Last Night: The sale felt soft even as the numbers were fairly strong=
=2E=20
Results: Works on paper do well, is that a trend?
Winners: Hockney, O=E2=80=99Keeffe, Pelton, Rousseau & Renoir
Losers: Johns, Picasso, Guston, Morris Louis & Theibaud
Notes: Guarantees or Estimates?
The Dial
Just a brief note on how to read the Artelligence Results Dial=E2=84=A2. Th=
e combined sales totaled $506.5 million split between a $328 million variou=
s owners sale (that included work from several named collections) and the $=
177 million Newhouse sale. Both sales exceeded the aggregate low estimate b=
ut the Newhouse sale labored under its estimates more than the various owne=
rs. The hammer ratio which is the combined hammer total of sold lots divide=
d by the aggregate low estimate of all lots offered was 1.05 which is a neu=
tral number. The market is neither advancing nor retreating. The sell-throu=
gh rate was a strong 86% with 60 lots selling out of 70 offered. Three lots=
were withdrawn before the sale. The Newhouse sale took four additional 3rd=
party guarantees before the sale and the various owners took another 10. O=
f the sold lots, 37% went above and 37% within the estimates; 26% of the lo=
ts were sold at compromise prices. 10 lots failed to find buyers.=20
About Last Night
Going into the sale, we described the economic context around the art marke=
t as a Goldilocks moment=E2=80=94falling inflation, rising interest rates a=
nd strong employment. Christie=E2=80=99s first Evening sale of the season c=
omprising the 20th Century and Newhouse collection was not too hot and not =
too cold, though surely no one felt it was just right. The auction room ha=
d more trade participants than have been seen since the beginning of the pa=
ndemic three years ago. There was slightly more bidding in the room but mos=
t of the action remained on the telephones.=20
It=E2=80=99s too early to judge the market from one evening but the sale do=
es suggest that the window of opportunity that opened in 2022 is finally be=
ginning to close. The rare Thursday night sale will now give specialists al=
l across New York a few days to discuss reserve prices with consignors in l=
ight of Christie=E2=80=99s results.=20
Selling in this season was always going to be something of a gamble. There =
was a pause in private market activity in the months between the November s=
ales and the late winter auctions in London. Buyers were waiting for seller=
s to adjust to a new market environment without cheap credit; sellers were =
cautiously hoping to capitalize on the demand for high quality works of art=
and the surprisingly buoyant economy.=20
Although the season is being driven by estates, there are a number of discr=
etionary sales that suggest consignors are trying to time the market. So fa=
r, that has been a mixed bag.
The odd combination of a strong sell-through and a weaker hammer ratio is a=
testament to Christie=E2=80=99s good sale management. Several works were s=
old at prices well below the estimate, including all of the Jasper Johns, o=
ne Guston, one Morris Louis and one of the Brice Mardens.=20
Results
Top Ten
Once again, the top lots are a mix of works bid above estimates, works sold=
for close to the estimate and works that sold at a sacrifice. This is not =
unusual after a long run of strong sales which tend to inflate estimates as=
sellers=E2=80=99 expectations rise. Although the Henri Rousseau sold for a=
spectacular price of $43.5m, with Philippe Segalot bidding from the center=
of the room, the result still felt muted. Could that singular work have a=
chieved a breakaway price had it sold in a more aggressive market moment? O=
r is $43.5m for an artist who rarely trades a triumph? The two Picassos on =
this list sold for the estimates; the Francis Bacon self-portrait sold for =
a price close to what its near-twin made 16 years ago [ https://substack.co=
m/redirect/fe8f8579-d3f1-4784-881e-1b31dd48bbf9?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCN=
hOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]. The Ruscha Burning Gas Station =
never caught fire and the Twombly and Lichtenstein struggled under their es=
timates. Both David Hockney and Georgia O=E2=80=99Keeffe were stars of thes=
e sales. (More on that below.)
Most Dynamic Bidding
The lots with the highest hammer ratios suggest a market driven by keen int=
erest and discovery. Toulouse-Lautrec, Goya and Ken Price are hardly market=
mainstays and its been some time since Renoir was on the must-have lists o=
f buyers.=20
Works on Paper
As an almost passing observation, we pulled out the works on paper from the=
evening=E2=80=99s results and were surprised to see the strength in biddin=
g. It=E2=80=99s not clear whether works on paper are currently in vogue or =
whether there=E2=80=99s a survivorship bias at work where value is moving t=
oward more works on paper because of the dearth of good paintings. One exam=
ple that did not make the list is the Picasso etching, Le Repas Frugal. A f=
ew weeks ago, an example sold in an editions sale for a quarter of a millio=
n dollars. But tonight, this etching pulled before the original plates were=
dulled by steel facing made more than 18-times the price when it sold for =
$4.6 million.=20
Winners
Paul Allen: The additional works from the Allen estate were the bright spot=
s of the sale providing a steady run of lots that sold at prices that were =
multiples of the low estimates. Estimate expectations were the only issue w=
ith the sale=E2=80=99s performance. Had the other estates been priced as th=
e Allen works were, the perception of the market would be very different th=
is morning.=20
David Hockney: Three Hockneys all made within the first decade of the 21st =
Century were sold for a combined total of $44.8m. The top lot of the group =
was simply a large, stunning landscape that accounted for almost half of th=
e total.
Georgia O=E2=80=99Keeffe: The three O=E2=80=99Keeffes totaled $42m. The mos=
t challenging of the works constituted half of the total selling well above=
the beautiful but more anodyne White Calico Rose.=20
Henri Rousseau: The $20 million estimate on the Rousseau was the largest nu=
mber Christie=E2=80=99s could assign to the work based upon the rare number=
of previous sales. The $43.5 million the work achieved oddly seems both a =
triumph and a relatively restrained price.
Agnes Pelton: Christie=E2=80=99s put a lot of effort into marketing the Pel=
ton. Cannily displaying the transcendental work just outside the Rousseau, =
the work got plenty of attention. It all paid off. In this case, the aggres=
sive estimate was easily beaten to make $3.4m. Unfortunately, neither Pelto=
n nor Rousseau are likely to generate significant sales in the future.
Renoir: The sleepers of the sale were two Pierre-Auguste Renoirs that troun=
ced the estimates. One work had been held in the same family for nearly a c=
entury and exhibited throughout that period. A low estimate helped bring in=
the bidders. But the second smaller and later work was simply a pretty pic=
ture that may signal unexpected market interest for the artist and, perhaps=
, Impressionist pictures in the future.
Losers
Jasper Johns: The estimates for the Jasper Johns works had caused concern =
before the sale for dealers with a stake in that market. Curiously, all thr=
ee works sold for the same fraction of the low estimate. Advisor Todd Levin=
complained to the [ https://substack.com/redirect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33=
-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6p=
p7gWdY ]New York Times [ https://substack.com/redirect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9=
d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_=
g6pp7gWdY ] that he did not participate in the bidding because of the estim=
ates despite attending the sale for two clients [ https://substack.com/redi=
rect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1=
d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] (it=E2=80=99s implied but not clear th=
at the clients were interested in the Johns works.) That seems odd when the=
works sold for attractive prices in line with other works sold at auction =
recently. That=E2=80=99s the ideal situation for a collector when there=E2=
=80=99s little competition for a desirable work. And the Newhouse Johns wor=
ks were certainly desirable.=20
Philip Guston: Dorothy and Alan press had three significant Gustons. The mo=
st difficult one failed to sell. The other two achieved very good prices. T=
he hooded-figure work sold for the low estimate. Chair was mysteriously est=
imated well above the market. Unfortunately, the retrospective hasn=E2=80=
=99t generated enough interest to have supported that aspirational price. E=
ven with the hurdle of the high estimate, a bidder in the very back of the =
room conferring on a cell phone in Chinese got the work at a very solid pri=
ce for the seller. That=E2=80=99s notable becase Guston isn=E2=80=99t an ar=
tist with a strong Asian collector base.=20
Pablo Picasso: The sale had six Picassos on offer. Two failed to find buyer=
s. The other works sold at their estimates. The Picasso market doesn=E2=80=
=99t have a lot of surprise left in it. Some of the works offered were disc=
retionary and might have chosen a better time but as a bellwether these Pic=
assos betrayed some tiredness in the market=E2=80=99s most important artist=
=2E=20
Morris Louis: A DC real estate family, according to the catalogue raisonn=
=C3=A9, offered three Morris Louis paintings. The move seemed to be a bold =
act of market timing. The results were mixed. The large unfurled painting m=
ade a strong price of $2.9 million to achieve the record for that category =
of work by a few tens of thousands. The stripe painting sold 20% below the =
low estimate and below other recent examples. The veil painting was bought =
in. =20
Wayne Thiebaud: The same consignor had another work on offer by Wayne Thieb=
aud. Christie=E2=80=99s featured it well in their exhibition but the work s=
old at a 15% discount to the estimate. Another Thiebaud, a work on paper fe=
aturing lollipops, was withdrawn from the sale presumably due to lack of in=
terest. With so much Thiebaud on offer, the lack of interest could simply b=
e too much competition.=20
Notes
It=E2=80=99s the estimates, not the guarantees: [ https://substack.com/redi=
rect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1=
d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] The New York Times=E2=80=99s report on=
Christie=E2=80=99s sale contains this odd interpretation of guarantees. =
=E2=80=9C[B]ecause every item had been guaranteed =E2=80=94 essentially pre=
sold to buyers who had promised to pay undisclosed minimum prices =E2=80=94=
adding credence to the increasingly common lament that sales have lost the=
suspense that used to animate bidding in the room and make auctions exciti=
ng.=E2=80=9D Christie=E2=80=99s sale may have lacked theater but it wasn=E2=
=80=99t because of the guarantees. The times seems to be confusing direct g=
uarantees where a collection gets a global result guaranteed with third-par=
ty guarantees where a work is presold. A global guarantee gives the auction=
house an incentive to sell works below the estimates (that happened repeat=
edly last night.) Third-party guarantees dampen the suspense of an auction,=
it=E2=80=99s true. And Christie=E2=80=99s announced at the beginning of ea=
ch sale that they had taken third-party guarantees. But only a quarter of t=
he Newhouse lots had third-party guarantees and half of the the various own=
ers sale. The $505 million dollar night didn=E2=80=99t feel meh because of =
the guarantees. The problem was the estimates.=20
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body .markup .tweet {
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</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
g src=3D"https://mailgun.substack.com/api/v1/email/open?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDI=
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=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !important;ma=
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s://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjMwNTEyMTI1MDU0LjMuZWY5=
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t=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px !important=
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tant;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div style=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;=
color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overfl=
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=3D"email-body-container"><tr><td></td><td width=3D"550" class=3D"content">=
</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td align=3D"left" width=3D"550" class=3D"c=
ontent"><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 auto; m=
ax-width: 550px; overflow-wrap: break-word; width: 100%;"><table role=3D"pr=
esentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"=
><tr><td align=3D"right" style=3D"height: 20px;"><table role=3D"presentatio=
n" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td =
style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><span class=3D"tw-font-body tw-text-ssm t=
w-text-substack-secondary" style=3D"color: #808080 !important; font-family:=
SF Pro Text, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Inter, Segoe UI, Roboto, H=
elvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Sy=
mbol !important; font-size: 13px !important;"><a href=3D"https://open.subst=
ack.com/pub/artelligence/p/after-action-report-christies-20th?utm_source=3D=
email&redirect=3Dapp-store" class=3D"tw-text-substack-secondary tw-underlin=
e" style=3D"-webkit-text-decoration-line: underline !important; color: #808=
080 !important; text-decoration-line: underline !important;">Open in app</a=
> or <a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGx=
pZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3AvYWZ0ZXItYWN0aW9uLXJlcG9ydC1jaHJpc3RpZXMtMjB0aD=
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style=3D"-webkit-text-decoration-line: underline !important; color: #808080=
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</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"a=
uto" class=3D"header graphic-header" style=3D"border-spacing: 0; padding: 1=
6px 0 32px;"><tr><td align=3D"center" style=3D"padding: 0; text-align: cent=
er;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGx=
pZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3AvYWZ0ZXItYWN0aW9uLXJlcG9ydC1jaHJpc3RpZXMtMjB0aD=
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TA2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImxpbmstcmVkaXJlY3QifQ.MyRCtoKOpAK1lp0yvRGl9=
O61uoUjppzZnTR5b0c9vKg?"><img role=3D"presentation" width=3D"550" height=3D=
"110" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_au=
to:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws=
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a-4eae-8c1a-7c9381cc0cef_1100x220.png"=
class=3D"header-image" style=3D"border: none !important; display: block; h=
eight: auto; margin: 0 auto; max-width: 550px; vertical-align: middle; widt=
h: 100%;"></a></td></tr></table><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D"post typography"=
style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; padding: 16px 0 0 0;"><div cl=
ass=3D"post-header" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><h1 class=
=3D"post-title published" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antial=
iased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-f=
amily: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI',=
Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji=
', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 32px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 36px=
; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=
=3D2259&post_id=3D120887425&utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue=
&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEyMDg4NzQyNSwiaWF0IjoxNj=
gzODk1OTA2LCJleHAiOjE2ODY0ODc5MDYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZ=
WFjdGlvbiJ9.FjnvR0s1amiMGC51aXQuTXi2OT18EiLH32COlaxB6YY" style=3D"color: #4=
04040; text-decoration: none;">After Action Report: Christie's 20th Century=
Evening Sale + Newhouse Collection</a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle" style=3D=
"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: sub=
pixel-antialiased; color: #808080; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -appl=
e-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-se=
rif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1=
8px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 1=
2px;">Auction season opens with a neutral sale</h3><table role=3D"presentat=
ion" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=
=3D"post-meta" style=3D"align-items: center; height: 20px; margin: 1em 0;">=
<tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacin=
g=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"aut=
o" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertic=
al-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__res=
et--tAIEo frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size-11--1-ofT frontend-pencraft-T=
ext-module__line-height-20--1soeQ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-med=
ium--aTbx5 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--2i-cR frontend-pencraf=
t-Text-module__color-primary--2I-sF frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transfor=
m-uppercase--38jbr frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--20JLV frontend-pen=
craft-Text-module__meta--3RRSj custom-css-email-post-author" style=3D"color=
: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system=
-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, =
'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; =
font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-=
decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><a style=3D"color: #404040; =
font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkM=
acSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Colo=
r Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight=
: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration:=
none; text-transform: uppercase;" href=3D"https://substack.com/profile/735=
466-marion-maneker" class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--=
tAIEo frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size-11--1-ofT frontend-pencraft-Text-=
module__line-height-20--1soeQ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium-=
-aTbx5 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--2i-cR frontend-pencraft-Te=
xt-module__color-primary--2I-sF frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-up=
percase--38jbr frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--20JLV frontend-pencraf=
t-Text-module__meta--3RRSj">Marion Maneker</a></div></td></tr></table></td>=
</tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cells=
pacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><d=
iv class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--tAIEo frontend-pe=
ncraft-Text-module__size-11--1-ofT frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-heig=
ht-20--1soeQ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--aTbx5 frontend-p=
encraft-Text-module__font-meta--2i-cR frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-=
secondary--XjVGl frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--38jbr =
frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--20JLV frontend-pencraft-Text-module__=
meta--3RRSj" style=3D"color: #808080; font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-sys=
tem, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Hel=
vetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI=
Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-hei=
ght: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><=
time dateTime=3D"2023-05-12T12:51:18.548Z">May 12</time></div></td></tr></t=
able></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation" width=
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v><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing:=
subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color:=
#404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemF=
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g>In This Issue</strong></h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li s=
tyle=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #=
404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; pa=
dding-left: 4px;"><strong>The Dial: </strong><span>Neutral </span></p></li>=
<li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; col=
or: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: =
0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>About Last Night:</strong><span> The sale fe=
lt soft even as the numbers were fairly strong. </span></p></li><li style=
=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #4040=
40; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; paddin=
g-left: 4px;"><strong>Results: </strong><span>Works on paper do well, is th=
at a trend?</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"=
box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;=
margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Winners: </strong=
><span>Hockney, O’Keeffe, Pelton, Rousseau & Renoir</span></p></l=
i><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; c=
olor: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom=
: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Losers:</strong><span> Johns, Picasso, Gus=
ton, Morris Louis & Theibaud</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 =
0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><str=
ong>Notes: </strong><span>Guarantees or Estimates?</span></p></li></ol><div=
style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0=
e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 cla=
ss=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel=
-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040;=
font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Seg=
oe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe U=
I Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-he=
ight: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">The Dial</h2><d=
iv class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; lin=
e-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width:=
100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspac=
ing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody>=
<tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"cont=
ent" width=3D"468" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" ta=
rget=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/1eb0d398-427c-4cb0-ae=
39-579a0c6f3e88?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g=
6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; f=
lex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relat=
ive; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src&quo=
t;:"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a34f85c=
6-ff17-4e49-be31-6714ba10f36c_1024x1024.jpeg","fullscreen":n=
ull,"imageSize":null,"height":1024,"width":10=
24,"resizeWidth":468,"bytes":241489,"alt":nul=
l,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href=
":null,"belowTheFold":true,"internalRedirect":null=
}" alt width=3D"468" height=3D"468" class src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/im=
age/fetch/w_468,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F=
%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa34f85c6-ff17-4=
e49-be31-6714ba10f36c_1024x1024.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicu=
bic; border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto;=
margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; widt=
h: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr><=
/tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; =
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Just a brief note on how to read th=
e Artelligence Results Dial™. The combined sales totaled $506.5 milli=
on split between a $328 million various owners sale (that included work fro=
m several named collections) and the $177 million Newhouse sale. Both sales=
exceeded the aggregate low estimate but the Newhouse sale labored under it=
s estimates more than the various owners. The hammer ratio which is the com=
bined hammer total of sold lots divided by the aggregate low estimate of al=
l lots offered was 1.05 which is a neutral number. The market is neither ad=
vancing nor retreating. The sell-through rate was a strong 86% with 60 lots=
selling out of 70 offered. Three lots were withdrawn before the sale. The =
Newhouse sale took four additional 3rd party guarantees before the sale and=
the various owners took another 10. Of the sold lots, 37% went above and 3=
7% within the estimates; 26% of the lots were sold at compromise prices. 10=
lots failed to find buyers. </p><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-st=
atic" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><fig=
ure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" w=
idth=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso=
-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></=
td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"468" style=3D"text-align: =
center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack=
=2Ecom/redirect/a8f3813c-281d-47a4-a63=
4-4f037a56e73b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.=
nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: cent=
er; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; mar=
gin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;=
"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.=
amazonaws.com/public/images/a349bb17-114a-4746-b574-214357947b06_1024x1024.=
jpeg","fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"hei=
ght":1024,"width":1024,"resizeWidth":468,"byt=
es":366398,"alt":null,"title":null,"type"=
;:"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":tru=
e,"internalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"468" height=3D"468" clas=
s src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_468,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:go=
od,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%=
2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa349bb17-114a-4746-b574-214357947b06_1024x1024.jpeg" st=
yle=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: b=
lock; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !impo=
rtant; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=
=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><div styl=
e=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0;=
border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D=
"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-anti=
aliased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font=
-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI=
', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height:=
1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">About Last Night</h2=
><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 =
0 20px 0;">Going into the sale, we described the economic context around th=
e art market as a Goldilocks moment—falling inflation, rising interes=
t rates and strong employment. Christie’s first Evening sale of the s=
eason comprising the 20th Century and Newhouse collection was not too hot a=
nd not too cold, though surely no one felt it was just right. The auction =
room had more trade participants than have been seen since the beginning of=
the pandemic three years ago. There was slightly more bidding in the room =
but most of the action remained on the telephones. </p><p style=3D"color: #=
404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">It’s=
too early to judge the market from one evening but the sale does suggest t=
hat the window of opportunity that opened in 2022 is finally beginning to c=
lose. The rare Thursday night sale will now give specialists all across New=
York a few days to discuss reserve prices with consignors in light of Chri=
stie’s results. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line=
-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Selling in this season was always going=
to be something of a gamble. There was a pause in private market activity =
in the months between the November sales and the late winter auctions in Lo=
ndon. Buyers were waiting for sellers to adjust to a new market environment=
without cheap credit; sellers were cautiously hoping to capitalize on the =
demand for high quality works of art and the surprisingly buoyant economy. =
</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin:=
0 0 20px 0;">Although the season is being driven by estates, there are a n=
umber of discretionary sales that suggest consignors are trying to time the=
market. So far, that has been a mixed bag.</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; =
font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The odd combinatio=
n of a strong sell-through and a weaker hammer ratio is a testament to Chri=
stie’s good sale management. Several works were sold at prices well b=
elow the estimate, including all of the Jasper Johns, one Guston, one Morri=
s Louis and one of the Brice Mardens. </p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; li=
ne-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1=
px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widg=
et" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-sm=
oothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Dis=
play', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Ar=
ial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; =
font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0=
=2E625em 0; position: relative;">Resul=
ts</h2><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-=
widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-fon=
t-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact=
Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica=
, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbo=
l'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em=
0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Top Ten</h4><div class=3D"captioned-imag=
e-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32=
px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"im=
age-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0=
" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-alig=
n: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"984" style=
=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"=
https://substack.com/redirect/4d719ab5-9a83-4305-a4ce-a7a85fc72b36?j=3DeyJ1=
IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"a=
lign-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; h=
eight: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: no=
ne; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://substac=
k-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/37841c36-76ac-4550-9c88-05cfd6a=
e0d77_984x460.png","fullscreen":null,"imageSize":n=
ull,"height":460,"width":984,"resizeWidth":nu=
ll,"bytes":148487,"alt":null,"title":null,&qu=
ot;type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFol=
d":true,"internalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"550" height=
=3D"257.1138211382114" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/=
image/fetch/w_1968,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A=
%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37841c36-76a=
c-4550-9c88-05cfd6ae0d77_984x460.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicu=
bic; border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto;=
margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; widt=
h: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr><=
/tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; =
line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Once again, the top lots are =
a mix of works bid above estimates, works sold for close to the estimate an=
d works that sold at a sacrifice. This is not unusual after a long run of s=
trong sales which tend to inflate estimates as sellers’ expectations =
rise. Although the </span><strong>Henri Rousseau</strong><span> sold for a =
spectacular price of $43.5m, with Philippe Segalot bidding from the center =
of the room, the result still felt muted. Could that singular work have ac=
hieved a breakaway price had it sold in a more aggressive market moment? Or=
is $43.5m for an artist who rarely trades a triumph? The two </span><stron=
g>Picassos</strong><span> on this list sold for the estimates; the </span><=
strong>Francis Bacon</strong><span> self-portrait </span><a href=3D"https:/=
/substack.com/redirect/fe8f8579-d3f1-4784-881e-1b31dd48bbf9?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjd=
jZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: #=
404040; text-decoration: underline;">sold for a price close to what its nea=
r-twin made 16 years ago</a><span>. The </span><strong>Ruscha</strong><span=
> </span><em>Burning Gas Station</em><span> never caught fire and the </spa=
n><strong>Twombly</strong><span> and </span><strong>Lichtenstein</strong><s=
pan> struggled under their estimates. Both </span><strong>David Hockney</st=
rong><span> and </span><strong>Georgia O’Keeffe</strong><span> were s=
tars of these sales. (More on that below.)</span></p><h4 class=3D"header-wi=
th-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -=
webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: '=
SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto,=
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Sego=
e UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; m=
argin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Most Dynamic Bidding</h4><div =
class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-h=
eight: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 10=
0%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr=
><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content=
" width=3D"980" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" targe=
t=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/c9118657-a06a-4124-9a12-=
5645866bdd0b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp=
7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex=
-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative=
; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":=
"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7ec786ad-a=
dca-4fe1-ac29-7417f3d1ce02_980x598.png","fullscreen":null,&q=
uot;imageSize":null,"height":598,"width":980,"=
;resizeWidth":null,"bytes":172916,"alt":null,"=
;title":null,"type":"image/png","href":n=
ull,"belowTheFold":true,"internalRedirect":null}" alt w=
idth=3D"550" height=3D"335.61224489795916" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"http=
s://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1960,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progre=
ssive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fi=
mages%2F7ec786ad-adca-4fe1-ac29-7417f3d1ce02_980x598.png" style=3D"-ms-inte=
rpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: a=
uto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical=
-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: =
center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #40404=
0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The lots with t=
he highest hammer ratios suggest a market driven by keen interest and disco=
very. Toulouse-Lautrec, Goya and Ken Price are hardly market mainstays and =
its been some time since Renoir was on the must-have lists of buyers. </p><=
h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: su=
bpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #4=
04040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont=
, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'S=
egoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; l=
ine-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Works on =
Paper</h4><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-siz=
e: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 =
auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D=
"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6=
em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" c=
lass=3D"content" width=3D"984" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"im=
age-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/b533cef9-=
0c2a-4ef6-ab18-1441c9b8f99d?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5i=
RnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; displ=
ay: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; pos=
ition: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&=
quot;src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/im=
ages/e7c3175c-dfc9-4173-859f-8fc017e25a24_984x540.png","fullscree=
n":null,"imageSize":null,"height":540,"width&=
quot;:984,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":161879,"alt&q=
uot;:null,"title":null,"type":"image/png",&qu=
ot;href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"internalRedirect&quo=
t;:null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"301.8292682926829" class=3D"wide-imag=
e" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1968,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:=
good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.co=
m%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe7c3175c-dfc9-4173-859f-8fc017e25a24_984x540.png" sty=
le=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: bl=
ock; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !impor=
tant; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=
=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=
=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;=
"><span>As an almost passing observation, we pulled out the works on paper =
from the evening’s results and were surprised to see the strength in =
bidding. It’s not clear whether works on paper are currently in vogue=
or whether there’s a survivorship bias at work where value is moving=
toward more works on paper because of the dearth of good paintings. One ex=
ample that did not make the list is the Picasso etching, </span><em>Le Repa=
s Frugal. </em><span>A few weeks ago, an example sold in an editions sale f=
or a quarter of a million dollars. But tonight, this etching pulled before =
the original plates were dulled by steel facing made more than 18-times the=
price when it sold for $4.6 million. </span></p><div style=3D"font-size: 1=
6px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; he=
ight: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anch=
or-widget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-=
font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Comp=
act Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvet=
ica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sy=
mbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: =
1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Winners</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: =
0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing:=
border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0;=
margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Paul Allen:</strong><span> T=
he additional works from the Allen estate were the bright spots of the sale=
providing a steady run of lots that sold at prices that were multiples of =
the low estimates. Estimate expectations were the only issue with the sale&=
#8217;s performance. Had the other estates been priced as the Allen works w=
ere, the perception of the market would be very different this morning. </s=
pan></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: bo=
rder-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; ma=
rgin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>David Hockney: </strong><span>T=
hree Hockneys all made within the first decade of the 21st Century were sol=
d for a combined total of $44.8m. The top lot of the group was simply a lar=
ge, stunning landscape that accounted for almost half of the total.</span><=
/p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-=
box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-=
bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Georgia O’Keeffe: </strong><sp=
an>The three O’Keeffes totaled $42m. The most challenging of the work=
s constituted half of the total selling well above the beautiful but more a=
nodyne </span><em>White Calico Rose</em><span>. </span></p></li><li style=
=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #4040=
40; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; paddin=
g-left: 4px;"><strong>Henri Rousseau:</strong><span> The $20 million estima=
te on the Rousseau was the largest number Christie’s could assign to =
the work based upon the rare number of previous sales. The $43.5 million th=
e work achieved oddly seems both a triumph and a relatively restrained pric=
e.</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizin=
g: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Agnes Pelton: </strong><sp=
an>Christie’s put a lot of effort into marketing the Pelton. Cannily =
displaying the transcendental work just outside the Rousseau, the work got =
plenty of attention. It all paid off. In this case, the aggressive estimate=
was easily beaten to make $3.4m. Unfortunately, neither Pelton nor Roussea=
u are likely to generate significant sales in the future.</span></p></li><l=
i style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color=
: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0;=
padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Renoir: </strong><span>The sleepers of the sal=
e were two Pierre-Auguste Renoirs that trounced the estimates. One work had=
been held in the same family for nearly a century and exhibited throughout=
that period. A low estimate helped bring in the bidders. But the second sm=
aller and later work was simply a pretty picture that may signal unexpected=
market interest for the artist and, perhaps, Impressionist pictures in the=
future.</span></p></li></ol><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=
=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font-smoothing: =
subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -a=
pple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans=
-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size=
: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;=
position: relative;">Losers</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><=
li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; colo=
r: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0=
; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Jasper Johns: </strong><span>The estimates fo=
r the Jasper Johns works had caused concern before the sale for dealers wi=
th a stake in that market. Curiously, all three works sold for the same fra=
ction of the low estimate. </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/=
4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQm=
MpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: #404040; text-decoration=
: underline;">Advisor Todd Levin complained to the </a><em><a href=3D"https=
://substack.com/redirect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiM=
jdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color:=
#404040; text-decoration: underline;">New York Times</a></em><a href=3D"ht=
tps://substack.com/redirect/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1Ij=
oiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"col=
or: #404040; text-decoration: underline;"> that he did not participate in t=
he bidding because of the estimates despite attending the sale for two clie=
nts</a><span> (it’s implied but not clear that the clients were inter=
ested in the Johns works.) That seems odd when the works sold for attractiv=
e prices in line with other works sold at auction recently. That’s th=
e ideal situation for a collector when there’s little competition for=
a desirable work. And the Newhouse Johns works were certainly desirable. <=
/span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: =
border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; =
margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Philip Guston: </strong><span=
>Dorothy and Alan press had three significant Gustons. The most difficult o=
ne failed to sell. The other two achieved very good prices. The hooded-figu=
re work sold for the low estimate. </span><em>Chair </em><span>was mysterio=
usly estimated well above the market. Unfortunately, the retrospective hasn=
’t generated enough interest to have supported that aspirational pric=
e. Even with the hurdle of the high estimate, a bidder in the very back of =
the room conferring on a cell phone in Chinese got the work at a very solid=
price for the seller. That’s notable becase Guston isn’t an ar=
tist with a strong Asian collector base. </span></p></li><li style=3D"margi=
n: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-=
size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4=
px;"><strong>Pablo Picasso: </strong><span>The sale had six Picassos on off=
er. Two failed to find buyers. The other works sold at their estimates. The=
Picasso market doesn’t have a lot of surprise left in it. Some of th=
e works offered were discretionary and might have chosen a better time but =
as a bellwether these Picassos betrayed some tiredness in the market’=
s most important artist. </span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;=
"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line=
-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Mor=
ris Louis: </strong><span>A DC real estate family, according to the catalog=
ue raisonné, offered three Morris Louis paintings. The move seemed to =
be a bold act of market timing. The results were mixed. The large unfurled =
painting made a strong price of $2.9 million to achieve the record for that=
category of work by a few tens of thousands. The stripe painting sold 20% =
below the low estimate and below other recent examples. The veil painting w=
as bought in. </span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=
=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 2=
6px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Wayne Thiebau=
d: </strong><span>The same consignor had another work on offer by Wayne Thi=
ebaud. Christie’s featured it well in their exhibition but the work s=
old at a 15% discount to the estimate. Another Thiebaud, a work on paper fe=
aturing lollipops, was withdrawn from the sale presumably due to lack of in=
terest. With so much Thiebaud on offer, the lack of interest could simply b=
e too much competition. </span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px;=
line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height=
: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-w=
idget" style=3D"-moz-osx-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; -webkit-font=
-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact =
Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica,=
Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol=
'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em =
0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Notes</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; pad=
ding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: borde=
r-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margi=
n-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong><a href=3D"https://substack.com/re=
direct/4061ecfc-18b8-4197-9d33-c578f513babd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3=
c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: #404040; text-dec=
oration: underline;">It’s the estimates, not the guarantees:</a><span=
> </span></strong><span>The </span><em>New York Times</em><span>’s re=
port on Christie’s sale contains this odd interpretation of guarantee=
s. “[B]ecause every item had been guaranteed — essentially pres=
old to buyers who had promised to pay undisclosed minimum prices — ad=
ding credence to the increasingly common lament that sales have lost the su=
spense that used to animate bidding in the room and make auctions exciting.=
” Christie’s sale may have lacked theater but it wasn’t b=
ecause of the guarantees. The times seems to be confusing direct guarantees=
where a collection gets a global result guaranteed with third-party guaran=
tees where a work is presold. A global guarantee gives the auction house an=
incentive to sell works below the estimates (that happened repeatedly last=
night.) Third-party guarantees dampen the suspense of an auction, it’=
;s true. And Christie’s announced at the beginning of each sale that =
they had taken third-party guarantees. But only a quarter of the Newhouse l=
ots had third-party guarantees and half of the the various owners sale. The=
$505 million dollar night didn’t feel meh because of the guarantees.=
The problem was the estimates. </span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-siz=
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