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Subject: Is the Art Market More Resilient Today?
From: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/is-the-art=
-market-more-resilient
Welcome to Artelligence
This newsletter looking at market cycles and what makes the auction busines=
s more resilient today is for paid subscribers only. Subscriptions are $12 =
a month or $120 for a year. If you are a paid subscriber, sharing a newslet=
ter on occasion is fine; consistently sharing paid content within your orga=
nization or with others is not.
For organizations: We offer group discounts of 30% for each subscription of=
two or more. Group subscriptions [ https://substack.com/redirect/1052ea82-=
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=A0
In This Issue
Stephen Brooks resigns from Phillips: The house will need to rebuild its na=
rrative
Notes: Reading the newspaper doesn=E2=80=99t always make you smarter
For Paid Subscribers Only
Another way of looking at the market: What if the auction market works in t=
hree-year cycles and last year was the first year of a new cycle?
Is the market more resilient than it was 10 years ago? With the growth in l=
uxury sales worldwide, the auction houses are operating in a more forgiving=
economic environment
Stephen Brooks Resigns from Phillips
It was revealed late last week in a German newspaper that Phillips CEO Step=
hen Brooks resigned from the auction house in December. Brooks had joined t=
wo years before to help Phillips grow and it appeared that he was on a path=
toward achieving his long-term goals. Well-liked by his staff, the departu=
re is a surprise for the industry. and interrupts the narrative of Phillips=
=E2=80=99s continuing transformation into a third alternative auction house=
=2E Reclaiming that momentum now falls=20=
back into the hands of former CEO and=20=
current Chairman, Ed Dolman.=20
Notes
Casting stones: The news of Stephen Brooks=E2=80=99s resignation was first =
published in the German-language business newspaper Handelsblatt. It is unc=
lear why the auction house did not announce the departure earlier. For some=
reason, that seems to have convinced Stefan Korbel, who writes an =E2=80=
=9Cannotated press review=E2=80=9D for a German fine art insurance brokerag=
e firm, of his own superiority to the press he gathers information from. Un=
fortunately, Korbel was not able =E2=80=9Cto do his own research=E2=80=9D o=
r even call Phillips for a statement. Because of that he erroneously sugge=
sted the departure was connected to Phillips better-than-its-peers sales vo=
lume drop. To make matters worse, the smug Korbel took an unnecessary swipe=
at the art press which only pointed to his own =E2=80=9Ccopying=E2=80=9D a=
nd =E2=80=9Cprocessing.=E2=80=9D Here=E2=80=99s the item from Korbel=E2=80=
=99s newsletter:
=E2=80=9COne likely victim of his auction house's disappointing sales is St=
ephen Brooks, who is no longer CEO of Phillips, as Stephanie Dieckvoss foun=
d out for Handelsblatt [ https://substack.com/redirect/0d5ff73b-9dbd-41a3-=
9bba-33594d6093a3?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx=
_g6pp7gWdY ]on Friday. It is not necessarily surprising that the head of th=
e third-largest art auction house is taking his hat off after a 15 per cent=
crash (the latter fact reported by Artnews [ https://substack.com/redirect=
/6a6ef1e7-5030-4d93-ba43-c47fdf6d3f36?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQ=
mMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]). What is surprising, however, is that non=
e of the relevant organisations Artnews, Artnet or The Art Newspaper have n=
oticed. Apparently, the three are so busy copying from each other or proces=
sing press releases that they have no time to monitor other media or even d=
o their own research.=E2=80=9D [Emphasis added]
Another Way of Looking at the Market
Christine Bourron, the founder of Pi-Ex, published this chart on LinkedIn t=
o show how important the very top end of the art market is too its overall =
growth or yearly variation. The major event auctions that sell more than $1=
00m in art in a single evening (it=E2=80=99s usually an evening event) are =
the most volatile end of the market. You can see that in the variation betw=
een the dark blue bars at the top of each yearly graph for the total combin=
ed sales of the top three auction houses over the last 16 years.=20
Seeing this chart reminded us of something entirely different. As almost ev=
eryone has commented, 2023 was a major drop in sales from the previous two=
years. The pullback has caused endless hang wringing and spurious comparis=
on to 2009. Of course, the market pullback is nowhere near as severe as the=
reckoning during the global financial crisis.
What=E2=80=99s been overlooked is a common pattern in the market over the l=
ast decade and a half. The market tends to run in three-year cycles where s=
ales volumes rise until estimates choke off demand. Removing the extraordin=
ary years of 2009, because of the shock of the financial crisis, and 2020 b=
ecause of the disruption from Covid-19, we can begin to describe the market=
in four distinct cycles. (We=E2=80=99ve annotated Pi-Ex=E2=80=99s chart to=
illustrate the pattern we=E2=80=99re describing.)...
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</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
g src=3D"https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjQwMTE2MTM=
wMTQwLjMuOGU5YWY0YTkxZmVkMGYyY0BtZzIuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjEzMzI2ODY2MS=
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wMjY1MCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJlbyJ9.HkFECVXOhNqXl0PdLrFXkBpPaIjwGP3lP=
Al_NR-XZLQ" alt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:=
1px !important;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 =
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right:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div style=3D"display:none;=
font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;op=
acity:0;overflow:hidden;" class=3D"preview">Stephen Brooks leaves Phillips =
+ Guillaume Cerutti makes the case for a decade's growth in art market stab=
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60;‌ ‌</div><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" bo=
rder=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"email-body-containe=
r"><tr><td></td><td width=3D"550" class=3D"content"></td><td></td></tr><tr>=
<td></td><td align=3D"left" width=3D"550" class=3D"content"><div style=3D"f=
ont-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 auto; max-width: 550px; overfl=
ow-wrap: break-word; width: 100%;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"10=
0%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td align=3D"right=
" style=3D"height: 20px;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" borde=
r=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align=
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color: rgb(128, 128, 128) !important; font-family: SF Pro Text, -apple-syst=
em, BlinkMacSystemFont, Inter, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-ser=
if, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol !important; font-siz=
e: 13px !important; list-style: none; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset;"><=
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PcYkZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size-12--KorQF frontend-pencraft-Text-=
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g: 0; line-height: 16px; list-style: none; margin: 0; text-align: right; te=
xt-decoration: unset;"><span translated class=3D"pencraft pc-reset frontend=
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aft-Text-module__decoration-underline--sj8pE frontend-pencraft-Text-module_=
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spacing: 0; padding: 16px 0 32px;"><tr><td align=3D"center" style=3D"paddin=
g: 0; text-align: center;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlI=
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mIjp0cnVlLCJ1IjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsImlhdCI6MTcwNTQxMDY0OSwiZXhwIjoxNzA4MDAyNjQ5LC=
Jpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImxpbmstcmVkaXJlY3QifQ.KVdc8jF734joj1BPVIQO2uy6CL=
3-2cRP90bAAVTiDAs?"><img role=3D"presentation" width=3D"550" height=3D"117"=
src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:go=
od,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%=
2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fecde5dbd-aa76-4984-bfac-acb56639185e_2800x591.png" clas=
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: auto; margin: 0 auto; max-width: 550px; vertical-align: middle; width: 10=
0%;"></a></td></tr></table><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D"post typography" styl=
e=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; padding: 16px 0 0 0;"><div class=
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"post-title published" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-o=
sx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -we=
bkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rg=
b(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSy=
stemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Em=
oji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 32px; font-weight: bo=
ld; line-height: 36px; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link=
/post?publication_id=3D2259&post_id=3D140689213&utm_source=3Dpost-email-tit=
le&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue&r=3D27cer9&token=3DeyJ=
1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE0MDY4OTIxMywiaWF0IjoxNzA1NDEwNjQ5LC=
JleHAiOjE3MDgwMDI2NDksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.=
hw6bL2HRbWAxrHr2JwZkGi06MYKdQQIIJ4zsZNsbVTY" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64=
); text-decoration: none;">Is the Art Market More Resilient Today? </a></h1=
><h3 class=3D"subtitle" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-=
osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -w=
ebkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #=
808080; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFon=
t, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', '=
Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; l=
ine-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 12px;">Stephen Brooks leaves=
Phillips + Guillaume Cerutti makes the case for a decade's growth in art m=
arket stability + Another way of looking at market cycles</h3><table role=
=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
=3D"0" class=3D"post-meta" style=3D"align-items: center; height: 20px; marg=
in: 1em 0;"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0=
" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" =
width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td sty=
le=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset frontend-pen=
craft-Text-module__color-primary--ud4Z0 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line=
-height-20--p0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--U_nxy frontend-=
pencraft-Text-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-=
medium--x7khA frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--IDkUL fro=
ntend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__met=
a--jzHdd custom-css-email-post-author" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); fon=
t-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacS=
ystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color E=
moji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 5=
00; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; list-style: none; margin: 0; t=
ext-decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><a style=3D"color: rgb(6=
4, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -syste=
m-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif,=
'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px;=
font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; list-style: non=
e; margin: 0; text-decoration: none; text-transform: uppercase;" href=3D"ht=
tps://substack.com/@artelligence" class=3D"pencraft pc-reset frontend-pencr=
aft-Text-module__color-primary--ud4Z0 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-h=
eight-20--p0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--U_nxy frontend-pe=
ncraft-Text-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-me=
dium--x7khA frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--IDkUL front=
end-pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta-=
-jzHdd">Marion Maneker</a></div></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td><table =
role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpad=
ding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft=
pc-reset frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-secondary--WRADg frontend-pe=
ncraft-Text-module__line-height-20--p0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__fo=
nt-meta--U_nxy frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencr=
aft-Text-module__weight-medium--x7khA frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transf=
orm-uppercase--IDkUL frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-p=
encraft-Text-module__meta--jzHdd" style=3D"color: rgb(128, 128, 128); font-=
family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSys=
temFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500=
; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; list-style: none; margin: 0; tex=
t-decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><time dateTime=3D"2024-01-=
16T13:09:26.599Z">Jan 16</time></div></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-widt=
h: 4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><table role=3D"presentat=
ion" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><t=
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et; text-transform: uppercase;">∙</div></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"=
min-width: 4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div translated =
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eight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; list-style: none; marg=
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mizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizele=
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625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; pos=
ition: relative;">In This Issue</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;=
"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; c=
olor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margi=
n-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Stephen Brooks resigns from Philli=
ps</strong><span>: The house will need to rebuild its narrative</span></p><=
/li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box;=
color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; mar=
gin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Notes: </strong><span>Reading th=
e newspaper doesn’t always make you smarter</span></p></li></ol><p st=
yle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0 0 20px 0;"><strong>For Paid Subscribers Only</strong></p><ol style=3D"mar=
gin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"bo=
x-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height:=
26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Another way=
of looking at the market: </strong><span>What if the auction market works =
in three-year cycles and last year was the first year of a new cycle?</span=
></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: borde=
r-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Is the market more resilie=
nt than it was 10 years ago?</strong><span> With the growth in luxury sales=
worldwide, the auction houses are operating in a more forgiving economic e=
nvironment</span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin:=
32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=
=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialias=
ed; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antiali=
ased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: =
'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto=
, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Seg=
oe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; =
margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Stephen Brooks Resigns from P=
hillips</h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-s=
ize: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: =
0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToD=
OMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"t=
ext-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456=
" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" h=
ref=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2e3ec4f3-7486-4ecc-baba-8fdb5e8209e5?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel sty=
le=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: co=
lumn; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decorat=
ion: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://=
substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4c7f05c9-1088-4ab4-8708-=
34d1db20b98c_1920x1080.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"full=
screen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":819,"w=
idth":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":868289,"=
;alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png&quo=
t;,"href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage"=
:false,"internalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"309.=
375" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912=
,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-pos=
t-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4c7f05c9-1088-4ab4-8708-34d1db=
20b98c_1920x1080.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: non=
e !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: =
0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !importa=
nt;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><=
figcaption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color:=
#808080; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line-h=
eight: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-a=
lign: center; width: 70%;">Stephen Brooks</figcaption></figure></div><p sty=
le=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0=
0 20px 0;">It was revealed late last week in a German newspaper that Phill=
ips CEO Stephen Brooks resigned from the auction house in December. Brooks =
had joined two years before to help Phillips grow and it appeared that he w=
as on a path toward achieving his long-term goals. Well-liked by his staff,=
the departure is a surprise for the industry. and interrupts the narrative=
of Phillips’s continuing transformation into a third alternative auc=
tion house. Reclaiming that momentum now falls back into the hands of forme=
r CEO and current Chairman, Ed Dolman. </p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; l=
ine-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: =
1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-wid=
get" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing:=
antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothin=
g: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); fon=
t-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe U=
I', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Em=
oji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height=
: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Notes</h2><ol style=
=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><st=
rong>Casting stones:</strong><span> The news of Stephen Brooks’s resi=
gnation was first published in the German-language business newspaper Hande=
lsblatt. It is unclear why the auction house did not announce the departure=
earlier. For some reason, that seems to have convinced Stefan Korbel, who =
writes an “annotated press review” for a German fine art insura=
nce brokerage firm, of his own superiority to the press he gathers informat=
ion from. Unfortunately, Korbel was not able “to do his own research&=
#8221; or even call Phillips for a statement. Because of that he erroneousl=
y suggested the departure was connected to Phillips better-than-its-peers =
sales volume drop. To make matters worse, the smug Korbel took an unnecessa=
ry swipe at the art press which only pointed to his own “copying̶=
1; and “processing.” Here’s the item from Korbel’s =
newsletter:</span></p><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64=
, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-botto=
m: 0; padding-left: 4px;"></p><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rg=
b(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; marg=
in-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><span>“One likely victim of his auc=
tion house's disappointing sales is Stephen Brooks, who is no longer CEO of=
Phillips, as Stephanie Dieckvoss found out for </span><strong><a href=3D"h=
ttps://substack.com/redirect/0d5ff73b-9dbd-41a3-9bba-33594d6093a3?j=3DeyJ1I=
joiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">Handelsblatt </a></stron=
g><span>on Friday. It is not necessarily surprising that the head of the th=
ird-largest art auction house is taking his hat off after a 15 per cent cra=
sh (the latter fact reported by </span><strong><a href=3D"https://substack.=
com/redirect/6a6ef1e7-5030-4d93-ba43-c47fdf6d3f36?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.n=
CNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64,=
64); text-decoration: underline;">Artnews</a><span>)</span></strong><span>=
=2E </span><strong>What is surprising,=20=
however, is that none of the relevant=20=
organisations Artnews, Artnet or The Art Newspaper have noticed. Apparently=
, the three are so busy copying from each other or processing press release=
s that they have no time to monitor other media or even do their own resear=
ch.</strong><span>” [Emphasis added]</span></p><div style=3D"font-siz=
e: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none=
; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div></li></ol><h2 class=3D"he=
ader-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz=
-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -=
webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: =
rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMac=
SystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color =
Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weigh=
t: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;"=
>Another Way of Looking at the Market</h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-con=
tainer-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px au=
to;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-w=
rapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" dat=
a-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6e=
m;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" cl=
ass=3D"content" width=3D"800" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"ima=
ge-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/4aa18e9b-2=
5ee-4cbb-908e-80afa2a02118?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iR=
nigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; displa=
y: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; posi=
tion: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&q=
uot;src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/ima=
ges/d9720436-22f5-480c-a472-dc00a11d74f8_800x448.jpeg","srcNoWate=
rmark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,&qu=
ot;height":448,"width":800,"resizeWidth":null,&quo=
t;bytes":54524,"alt":null,"title":null,"type&=
quot;:"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold"=
:true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" alt wi=
dth=3D"550" height=3D"308" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.=
com/image/fetch/w_1600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/http=
s%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9720436=
-22f5-480c-a472-dc00a11d74f8_800x448.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode:=
bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 =
auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle;=
width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><=
/tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font=
-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Christine Bourron, the=
founder of Pi-Ex, published this chart on LinkedIn to show how important t=
he very top end of the art market is too its overall growth or yearly varia=
tion. The major event auctions that sell more than $100m in art in a single=
evening (it’s usually an evening event) are the most volatile end of=
the market. You can see that in the variation between the dark blue bars a=
t the top of each yearly graph for the total combined sales of the top thre=
e auction houses over the last 16 years. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64,=
64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Seeing this =
chart reminded us of something entirely different. As almost everyone has c=
ommented, 2023 was a major drop in sales from the previous two years. The =
pullback has caused endless hang wringing and spurious comparison to 2009. =
Of course, the market pullback is nowhere near as severe as the reckoning d=
uring the global financial crisis.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); f=
ont-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-bottom: 0;">W=
hat’s been overlooked is a common pattern in the market over the last=
decade and a half. The market tends to run in three-year cycles where sale=
s volumes rise until estimates choke off demand. Removing the extraordinary=
years of 2009, because of the shock of the financial crisis, and 2020 beca=
use of the disruption from Covid-19, we can begin to describe the market in=
four distinct cycles. (We’ve annotated Pi-Ex’s chart to illust=
rate the pattern we’re describing.)...</p></div></div><div data-testi=
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