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Subject: What We Learned this Week (2337)
From: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
To: enzo@showfile.com
Message-Id: <20230915153023.3.8aaa415c48e66fc7@mg2.substack.com>
Date: Fri, 15 Sep 2023 15:30:23 +0000
sender: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
References: <post-137067856@substack.com>
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Reply-To: Artelligence
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/what-we-le=
arned-this-week-2337

Welcome to Artelligence
This free Artelligence newsletter is published most Friday throughout the y=
ear. Additional newsletters analyzing auction data from LiveArt or featurin=
g our own reporting are for paid subscribers only.
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d a full year free for 25 paid subscribers.
In This Issue
Lot Watch: Paula Rego record-setter at Christie=E2=80=99s in October;
Notes: Fair Fatigue at the start of the season; Lauder=E2=80=99s influence =
on the Whitney;=20
Fair Value: The numbers involved in Frieze=E2=80=99s deal for the Armory Sh=
ow suggest Frieze has been struggling to expand.
Lot Watch
As National Gallery Celebrates Paula Rego=E2=80=99s Work, A Record-Setter A=
nnounced
Significant works by Paula Rego are rare on the art market. Only a handful =
trade every year. Christie=E2=80=99s announced this week that it will be of=
fering the large-scale, two-panel work Dancing Ostriches from Walt Disney=
=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98Fantasia=E2=80=99 from 1995 in its October 13th sale in=
 London. The work comes with an estimate nearly two times the record price =
paid for the artist=E2=80=99s work. In July 2015, The Cadet and His Sister =
from 1988 was sold for =C2=A31.1 million. In October of 2021, Good Dog from=
 1994 was sold for slightly more in pounds but less in dollars. The sales t=
ake place against the backdrop of a celebration of Rego=E2=80=99s commissio=
ned work for the National Gallery in London. The museum made Rego its first=
 Associate Artist in 1990. During her tenure there, the artist painted a mu=
ral for the then-new Sainsbury Wing dining room exploring narratives of wom=
en in biblical stories.=20
Notes
Fair Play: Our poll earlier this week revealed a concerning level of fair f=
atigue. Although a quarter of the repondents said they bought or sold works=
 that made attending the fair well worth the effort and expense, another 56=
% of those polled were pretty cranky. A full 35% of those who clicked, the =
largest number, are simply fed up with the number of art fairs they feel re=
quired to attend. Just under 20%, enjoyed the fair experience even though t=
hey did not transact. Those people must be saints.=20
Is the Whitney Captured? [ https://substack.com/redirect/29d73830-54bd-4477=
-91c7-bf6210e4df11?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6F=
x_g6pp7gWdY ] We=E2=80=99re a bit late to Julia Halperin=E2=80=99s excellen=
t debut column in The Art Newspaper covering museums. She opens by question=
ing the appointment of Scott Rothkopf as the Whitney Museum=E2=80=99s direc=
tor. =E2=80=9C[P]rivately, many in the art world expressed concern that Rot=
hkopf was selected without any kind of formal search process. One former mu=
seum director calls the move =E2=80=98deeply misguided.=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D T=
he rest of the column goes on discuss diversity in museum leadership and tr=
ansparency in the search process. Left unexamined is why Rothkopf, about wh=
om there has been no public criticism of his actual work, was chosen withou=
t a competitive search. Halperin explains it by citing outgoing director Ad=
am Weinberg. Why Weinberg would have the clout to choose his successor, if =
that=E2=80=99s what happened there, isn=E2=80=99t explained. It seems far m=
ore likely that Rothkopf was chosen because the museum=E2=80=99s main benef=
actor, Leonard Lauder, chose him. And its not as if the effects of such inf=
luence cannot be seen in the museum itself. The dual Jasper Johns retrospec=
tive offered clear=E2=80=94if subtle=E2=80=94clues that the Whitney=E2=80=
=99s curatorial work can keep its benefactors in mind.=20
Whither the Seized Schieles? [ https://substack.com/redirect/70b85046-1597-=
4d39-858f-2af0bdbb28cd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigH=
Xx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] William Cohan, who knows a few things about restitution c=
ases, got over excited in his Puck recap of the recent seizure of Egon Schi=
ele works from three museums in Chicago, Pittsburgh and Oberlin along with =
others voluntarily surrendered. He suggested in his September 13th [ https:=
//substack.com/redirect/e488639e-756d-430b-bc59-a0955921de10?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMj=
djZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] email that the work=
s might appear at Christie=E2=80=99s in November. That=E2=80=99s not going =
to happen. The civil litigation surrounding these works won=E2=80=99t be ov=
er by then. Even if ownership rights could be adjudicated by then, there wo=
uld not be sufficient time to market the works. That said, the case is like=
ly to be interesting and is a reminder that the restitution issue is far fr=
om over.=20
Arnault=E2=80=99s Charm Offensive: [ https://substack.com/redirect/256a2d0c=
-c18d-4919-a5e4-3eb49c2143b0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5=
iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] The New York Times was granted an interview with Be=
rnard Arnault to combat the idea that the five Arnault siblings are a real-=
life =E2=80=9CSuccession=E2=80=9D playing out in the luxury goods industry.=
 Both the Times and the Arnaults are straight-forward in why they gave the =
interview. Though it seems unlikely that the story will do much to blunt th=
e anger toward wealth inequality when Arnault sometimes tops the lists of t=
he world=E2=80=99s richest.=20
Fair Value: Armory valued at half of Frieze=E2=80=99s four fairs=20
Endeavor now owns both Frieze, which had its fair in Seoul last week, and t=
he Armory Show. But it would appear that Endeavor values the two art fairs =
quite differently. In regulatory filings this Summer, Vornado revealed that=
 it sold the Armory Show for $24.4 million [ https://substack.com/redirect/=
4bf5d764-54d7-4227-8a38-b940d7bf8f6f?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQm=
MpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]. That=E2=80=99s an impressive number for a =
regional art fair that was recently interrupted by the pandemic and also ju=
st made the transition from its long-time home on the piers to the Javits c=
enter. To the untrained eye, that price would suggest an overall value for =
Frieze which has four fairs might be nearly $100 million. Yet Endeavor=E2=
=80=99s own formula for acquiring the remaining equity in Frieze values the=
 global brand at just $55 million.
When WME, now Endeavor, bought 70% of Frieze in 2016 when there were only t=
wo fairs, one in London and the other in New York. Since then, Frieze New Y=
ork has been diminished in size since moving to The Shed at Hudson Yards. M=
eanwhile, the fair has expanded internationally to Los Angeles and, in a bi=
t of a masterstroke, Seoul. So why does it seem like the Armory is valued h=
igher than Frieze?
Let=E2=80=99s go back to 2016. Because of the way that WME presented the de=
al for Frieze, it is difficult to know how much WME paid. WME merged the nu=
mbers for the acquisition of Frieze into with the purchase of a US marketin=
g firm called Fusion. WME paid $89.3 million for both firms.=C2=A0
Fusion was the larger firm in terms of employees but probably not revenue o=
r cash flow.=C2=A0How do we know? The deal contained a put/call option for =
the outstanding 30% stake held by Frieze founders Amanda Sharpe and Matthew=
 Slotover. The option was there to allow Sharpe and Slotover to sell (or WM=
E to buy) if they left the firm or by 2020=E2=80=94when presumably Frieze w=
ould be making a great deal more money.=C2=A0
Using the option formula, we can deduce Frieze=E2=80=99s cash flow in 2016,=
 the year of the initial deal. The option for Sharpe and Slotover=E2=80=99s=
 30% stake was valued in the contract at 7.5 times EBITDA or what most of u=
s would think of as profit. Even though the acquisition presented numbers t=
hat said Fusion and Frieze together had $106 million in revenue and $3.6 mi=
llion in EBIDTA, the formula for the option suggests that Frieze on its own=
 had EBIDTA of around $7.3 million.=C2=A0
If that=E2=80=99s the case, Frieze was valued at $55 million in 2016. In a =
May 2019 S-1 filing [ https://substack.com/redirect/6a31cebe-4637-419f-abae=
-be18f0ae13c3?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6p=
p7gWdY ] when Endeavor went public, the company stated that Sharpe and Slot=
over=E2=80=99s stake was worth $16.4 million based on numbers for 2017. But=
 the outlook wasn=E2=80=99t great. A year later the 30% stake had slid to $=
15.9 million. By March of 2019, just three months later, the value of the s=
take was projected to slide to $11.1 million.=C2=A0
The art market had a good year in 2019, so that drop in EBIDTA probably ref=
lected the investment Frieze was making in starting new fairs. Though beyon=
d the addition of Frieze Los Angeles and Frieze Seoul, it isn=E2=80=99t app=
arent what the company was spending money on that would have impacted EBIDT=
A. So perhaps there was softening of the over-crowded art fair business. Wh=
atever the conditions, they would soon turn far worse than anyone might hav=
e imagined.=C2=A0
Nothing could have been worse for the art fair business than the cataclysm =
of Covid. In that context, it isn=E2=80=99t really a surprise that neither =
Endeavor nor Sharpe and Slotover were eager to exercise their put/ call opt=
ions in 2020.=C2=A0
By May of this year, things had finally improved. Even if it now took four =
fairs to generate the earnings that used to come from just two fairs, Friez=
e was back in business and generating enough cash flow to bring the options=
 back to their 2016 level. The outstanding 30% stake was now back at par fr=
om the deal seven years ago. Endeavor bought it for $16.5 million which val=
ues all of Frieze, pre-Armory Show and EXPO Chicago acquisition, at $55 mil=
lion.=C2=A0
It isn=E2=80=99t surprising that Sharpe and Slotover would want out. This t=
ype of deal structure usually results when the sellers believe their compan=
y is worth more in the future than the buyers do. They either believed art =
fairs would continue to grow and Frieze along with it or hoped that the add=
ition of Endeavor=E2=80=99s capital and clout would accelerate the company=
=E2=80=99s growth. Neither of those things happened. Frieze expanded but th=
e costs outpaced the earnings. Whether this is because of stiff competition=
 from Art Basel or poor management or simply the overhang of Covid costs, w=
e=E2=80=99ll never know.=C2=A0
The three-year out-of-date put/call option had to be exercised. Yet it also=
 seems likely the May transaction helped clean up the ownership of Frieze f=
or Endeavor to pursue buying EXPO Chicago and Armory show. That still doesn=
=E2=80=99t explain the very different valuations for Frieze and Armory Show=
=2E Based on the 2016 formula, the Armo=
ry Show would have to generate $3.25 m=
illion in cash to be worth $24.4.=C2=A0
It seems unlikely that Vornado was reluctant to sell the Armory Show. The f=
air business is peripheral to Vornado=E2=80=99s commercial real estate empi=
re which is beset by enormous challenges as New York tries to cope with a m=
assive secular shift in commercial real estate. That should give us some co=
nfidence that Armory was generating the $3.25 million from its yearly fair.=
=C2=A0
If that=E2=80=99s the case, why isn=E2=80=99t Frieze doing better? There=E2=
=80=99s a good chance Frieze London has better numbers than Armory. So that=
 means Frieze=E2=80=99s other three fairs are a drag on the company. It=E2=
=80=99s been seven years that Endeavor has owned Frieze but there still doe=
sn=E2=80=99t seem to be much of a plan for how to expand the business beyon=
d opening fairs in LA and Seoul which will take time to contribute margin.=
=C2=A0
Worse, it would seem that Frieze New York which struggled on Randall=E2=80=
=99s Island and now seems ill-suited to The Shed has been swapped for the b=
etter performing Armory Show. (If we didn=E2=80=99t have these numbers, no =
one would have made that comparison.) That may not be the case. But the com=
bination of the deal structure and the dramatically better presentation at =
the Javits Center would seem to back that up. Another way to think about th=
is is that Frieze had to buy the growth it was supposed to get organically =
by investing in itself.
If that weren=E2=80=99t enough of a problem, there=E2=80=99s the impending =
confrontation with Art Basel. Frieze has been smart to expand to places whe=
re Art Basel isn=E2=80=99t. But the Swiss company doesn=E2=80=99t seem to r=
espect the d=C3=A9tente. This year, the second edition of Paris Plus opens =
the week after Frieze London. Paradoxically, the timing may end up helping =
Frieze. The two fairs come close enough together for visitors to spend two =
weeks in Europe seeing a year=E2=80=99s worth of art.=C2=A0
That said, if the art world continues to move its European operations from =
London to the Continent, over time the advantage may shift toward Paris Plu=
s. That=E2=80=99s without adding the fact that Paris is the capital of the =
luxury goods industry and the convergence of art and fashion seem to favor =
that city as a global convening point.

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  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-userhead-cell,
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  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-body-cell {
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  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-controls .button.primary {
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 768px) {
  .post-silhouette {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-title {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-meta.with-byline-image {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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  .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button > svg {
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@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media all and (-ms-high-contrast: none), (-ms-high-contrast: active) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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ribe .subscription-widget-subscribe .button,
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e .subscription-widget-subscribe .button {
    padding: 10px 12px;
    min-width: 110px;
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .tweet {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .tweet .tweet-text {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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  body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.three,
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 420px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 420px) and (max-width: 600px) {
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@media (max-width: 420px) {
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@media (max-width: 600px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 500px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 420px) {
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cription-discount {
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@media screen and (max-width: 480px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media only screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media only screen and (min-width: 630px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 250px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 300px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 350px) {
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-title {
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ner {
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-substack-logo {
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}


@media (min-width: 350px) {
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ner {
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e {
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}


@media (min-width: 400px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai=
ner {
    padding-top: 40%;
    width: 40%;
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}


@media (max-width: 400px) {
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button {
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    margin-top: 10px;
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}


@media (min-width: 600px) {
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ner {
    padding-top: 55%;
    width: 55%;
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
  .poll-editor-modal {
    min-width: calc(100% - 20px);
  }
}


@media (max-width: 750px) {
  .poll-embed .poll-anchor-target .poll-anchor-copy-button {
    left: 8px;
    top: 45px;
  }
}


@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .poll-embed .poll-wrapper.poll-web .poll-dialog .modal-table .modal-row .=
modal-content > .container {
    width: 552px;
    padding: 26px 24px;
  }
}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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modal-content > .container {
    padding: 40px 0;
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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odal-exit-btn {
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}
</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
g src=3D"https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjMwOTE1MTU=
zMDIzLjMuOGFhYTQxNWM0OGU2NmZjN0BtZzIuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjEzMzI2ODY2MS=
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jc4NTYsInQiOiJuZXdzbGV0dGVyIiwiYSI6ImV2ZXJ5b25lIiwicyI6MjI1OSwiYyI6InBvc3Qi=
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zODgxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.4H0i9YwRhsPfnQRQxVi2NHCddHiDyQ8Is-=
UbiVv9HYQ" alt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1=
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important;margin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:=
0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-r=
ight:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div style=3D"display:none;f=
ont-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opa=
city:0;overflow:hidden;" class=3D"preview">What is Frieze Art Fair Worth? +=
 Paula Rego Record in October &#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;=
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ect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3Avd2hhdC13ZS1sZ=
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jNpWlNreEFxZTVCS2J6cnhpRWMtSGVBZlcySHIxbkFDZUlmOCIsInAiOjEzNzA2Nzg1NiwicyI6=
MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4NjYxLCJpYXQiOjE2OTQ3OTE4ODEsImV4cCI6MTY5NzM=
4Mzg4MSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.qNYbQSICs6PcJ_-4tJ=
mLvtKOZG9GcP0Qba16FTM05E4?"><img role=3D"presentation" width=3D"550" height=
=3D"117" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q=
_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazon=
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idth: 100%;"></a></td></tr></table><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D"post typograp=
hy" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; padding: 16px 0 0 0;"><div=
 class=3D"post-header" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><h1 cl=
ass=3D"post-title published" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; =
-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibilit=
y; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; col=
or: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, Blin=
kMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Co=
lor Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 32px; font-weig=
ht: bold; line-height: 36px; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/ap=
p-link/post?publication_id=3D2259&post_id=3D137067856&utm_source=3Dpost-ema=
il-title&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue&r=3D27cer9&token=
=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEzNzA2Nzg1NiwiaWF0IjoxNjk0Nzkx=
ODgxLCJleHAiOjE2OTczODM4ODEsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGl=
vbiJ9.LhvpQUV3iZSkxAqe5BKbzrxiEc-HeAfW2Hr1nACeIf8" style=3D"color: rgb(64, =
64, 64); text-decoration: none;">What We Learned this Week (2337)</a></h1><=
h3 class=3D"subtitle" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-os=
x-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -web=
kit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #80=
8080; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont,=
 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Se=
goe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; lin=
e-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 12px;">What is Frieze Art Fair=
 Worth? + Paula Rego Record in October</h3><table role=3D"presentation" wid=
th=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"post-=
meta" style=3D"align-items: center; height: 20px; margin: 1em 0;"><tr><td><=
table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" c=
ellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:=
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ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, '=
Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; f=
ont-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-d=
ecoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><a style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64=
, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui,=
 BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'App=
le Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font=
-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-deco=
ration: none; text-transform: uppercase;" href=3D"https://substack.com/@art=
elligence" class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--VfQY8 fro=
ntend-pencraft-Text-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__l=
ine-height-20--p0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--x7khA fr=
ontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--U_nxy frontend-pencraft-Text-module=
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IDkUL frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-mo=
dule__meta--jzHdd">Marion Maneker</a></div></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr>=
<td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D=
"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=
=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--VfQY8 frontend-pencraft-T=
ext-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--p=
0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--x7khA frontend-pencraft-=
Text-module__font-meta--U_nxy frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-secondar=
y--WRADg frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--IDkUL frontend=
-pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--jz=
Hdd" style=3D"color: rgb(128, 128, 128); font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-=
system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, =
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe=
 UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-=
height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;=
"><time dateTime=3D"2023-09-15T15:30:30.012Z">Sep 15</time></div></td></tr>=
</table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation" wi=
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ine-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: center;"><a class=3D"butt=
on primary" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnR=
lbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2xlYWRlcmJvYXJkPz0mcmVmZXJyZXJfdG9rZW49MjdjZX=
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0ts9YhTRczxM5xerMVOB_0VAaTh0lECw?&utm_source=3Dpost" rel style=3D"backgroun=
d-color: #653366; border: none; border-radius: 6px; box-sizing: border-box;=
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mily: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Ari=
al, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; f=
ont-size: 14px; font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: 20px; margin: =
0; opacity: 1; outline: none; padding: 12px 20px; text-align: center; text-=
decoration: none !important; white-space: nowrap;"><span style=3D"color: #f=
fffff; text-decoration: none;">Refer a friend</span></a></p><div style=3D"f=
ont-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; borde=
r: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"heade=
r-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-os=
x-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -web=
kit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb=
(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSys=
temFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: =
bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">In=
 This Issue</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margi=
n: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64=
); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding=
-left: 4px;"><strong>Lot Watch:</strong><span> Paula Rego record-setter at =
Christie&#8217;s in October;</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32=
px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size:=
 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;">=
<strong>Notes:</strong><span> Fair Fatigue at the start of the season; Laud=
er&#8217;s influence on the Whitney; </span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8=
px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); f=
ont-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-lef=
t: 4px;"><strong>Fair Value: </strong><span>The numbers involved in Frieze&=
#8217;s deal for the Armory Show suggest Frieze has been struggling to expa=
nd.</span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;">=
<hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0=
; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-=
appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webk=
it-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; app=
earance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compa=
ct Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helveti=
ca, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sym=
bol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1=
em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Lot Watch</h2><h4 class=3D"header-with=
-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font=
-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-fo=
nt-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 6=
4, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFon=
t, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', '=
Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; =
line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">As Natio=
nal Gallery Celebrates Paula Rego&#8217;s Work, A Record-Setter Announced</=
h4><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px=
; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; w=
idth: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cel=
lspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" =
style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align:=
 center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1220" style=3D=
"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"htt=
ps://substack.com/redirect/37d978ef-7f6f-4d04-a673-cd66773c5838?j=3DeyJ1Ijo=
iMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"alig=
n-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; heig=
ht: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none;=
 width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-p=
ost-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/37a7a1b2-044e-4e8f-b528-f6899ec4f5=
b9_1220x720.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quo=
t;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;=
:1220,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:266318,&quot;alt&quot;=
:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;=
href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&q=
uot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"324.590163934=
42624" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_24=
40,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-p=
ost-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37a7a1b2-044e-4e8f-b528-f689=
9ec4f5b9_1220x720.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: n=
one !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom=
: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !impor=
tant;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table=
><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box; colo=
r: #808080; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line=
-height: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text=
-align: center; width: 70%;">Paula Rego, Dancing Ostriches from Walt Disney=
's 'Fantasia' (1995) est imated at &#163;2.2m</figcaption></figure></div><p=
 style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margi=
n: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Significant works by Paula Rego are rare on the art m=
arket. Only a handful trade every year. Christie&#8217;s announced this wee=
k that it will be offering the large-scale, two-panel work </span><em>Danci=
ng Ostriches from Walt Disney&#8217;s &#8216;Fantasia&#8217; </em><span>fro=
m 1995 in its October 13th sale in London. The work comes with an estimate =
nearly two times the record price paid for the artist&#8217;s work. In July=
 2015, </span><em>The Cadet and His Sister</em><span> from 1988 was sold fo=
r &#163;1.1 million. In October of 2021, </span><em>Good Dog</em><span> fro=
m 1994 was sold for slightly more in pounds but less in dollars. The sales =
take place against the backdrop of a celebration of Rego&#8217;s commission=
ed work for the National Gallery in London. The museum made Rego its first =
Associate Artist in 1990. During her tenure there, the artist painted a mur=
al for the then-new Sainsbury Wing dining room exploring narratives of wome=
n in biblical stories. </span></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; marg=
in: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" styl=
e=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialia=
sed; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antial=
iased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family:=
 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Robot=
o, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Se=
goe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em;=
 margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Notes</h2><ol style=3D"margi=
n-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-=
sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 2=
6px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Fair Play:</s=
trong><span> Our poll earlier this week revealed a concerning level of fair=
 fatigue. Although a quarter of the repondents said they bought or sold wor=
ks that made attending the fair well worth the effort and expense, another =
56% of those polled were pretty cranky. A full 35% of those who clicked, th=
e largest number, are simply fed up with the number of art fairs they feel =
required to attend. Just under 20%, enjoyed the fair experience even though=
 they did not transact. Those people must be saints. </span></p></li><li st=
yle=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rg=
b(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom=
: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2=
9d73830-54bd-4477-91c7-bf6210e4df11?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmM=
pisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-dec=
oration: underline;">Is the Whitney Captured?</a><span> </span></strong><sp=
an>We&#8217;re a bit late to Julia Halperin&#8217;s excellent debut column =
in The Art Newspaper covering museums. She opens by questioning the appoint=
ment of Scott Rothkopf as the Whitney Museum&#8217;s director. &#8220;[P]ri=
vately, many in the art world expressed concern that Rothkopf was selected =
without any kind of formal search process. One former museum director calls=
 the move &#8216;deeply misguided.&#8217;&#8221; The rest of the column goe=
s on discuss diversity in museum leadership and transparency in the search =
process. Left unexamined is why Rothkopf, about whom there has been no publ=
ic criticism of his actual work, was chosen without a competitive search. H=
alperin explains it by citing outgoing director Adam Weinberg. Why Weinberg=
 would have the clout to choose his successor, if that&#8217;s what happene=
d there, isn&#8217;t explained. It seems far more likely that Rothkopf was =
chosen because the museum&#8217;s main benefactor, Leonard Lauder, chose hi=
m. And its not as if the effects of such influence cannot be seen in the mu=
seum itself. The dual Jasper Johns retrospective offered clear&#8212;if sub=
tle&#8212;clues that the Whitney&#8217;s curatorial work can keep its benef=
actors in mind. </span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong><a h=
ref=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/70b85046-1597-4d39-858f-2af0bdbb28cd?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel sty=
le=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">Whither the Seiz=
ed Schieles?</a><span> </span></strong><span>William Cohan, who knows a few=
 things about restitution cases, got over excited in his Puck recap of the =
recent seizure of Egon Schiele works from three museums in Chicago, Pittsbu=
rgh and Oberlin along with others voluntarily surrendered. He suggested </s=
pan><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/e488639e-756d-430b-bc59-a09559=
21de10?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY"=
 rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">in his S=
eptember 13th</a><span> email that the works might appear at Christie&#8217=
;s in November. That&#8217;s not going to happen. The civil litigation surr=
ounding these works won&#8217;t be over by then. Even if ownership rights c=
ould be adjudicated by then, there would not be sufficient time to market t=
he works. That said, the case is likely to be interesting and is a reminder=
 that the restitution issue is far from over. </span></p></li><li style=3D"=
margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 6=
4, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; pa=
dding-left: 4px;"><strong><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/256a2d0c=
-c18d-4919-a5e4-3eb49c2143b0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5=
iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration=
: underline;">Arnault&#8217;s Charm Offensive:</a></strong><span> The New Y=
ork Times was granted an interview with Bernard Arnault to combat the idea =
that the five Arnault siblings are a real-life &#8220;Succession&#8221; pla=
ying out in the luxury goods industry. Both the Times and the Arnaults are =
straight-forward in why they gave the interview. Though it seems unlikely t=
hat the story will do much to blunt the anger toward wealth inequality when=
 Arnault sometimes tops the lists of the world&#8217;s richest. </span></p>=
</li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"b=
ackground: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"=
></div><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: op=
timizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance:=
 optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optim=
izelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -=
apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, san=
s-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-siz=
e: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0=
; position: relative;"><strong>Fair Value: Armory valued at half of Frieze&=
#8217;s four fairs </strong></h4><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-st=
atic" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><fig=
ure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" w=
idth=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-compone=
nt-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbod=
y><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"co=
ntent" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link"=
 target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/a13c1c4f-8276-4ce1=
-ab11-749c98b7a57f?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6F=
x_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block=
; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: re=
lative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&=
quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b913=
2118-b30b-4639-9cb0-f95d42b289e5_4000x2667.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&=
quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;hei=
ght&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;byt=
es&quot;:2344465,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quo=
t;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:tr=
ue,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=
=3D"550" height=3D"366.7925824175824" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://s=
ubstackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive=
:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages=
%2Fb9132118-b30b-4639-9cb0-f95d42b289e5_4000x2667.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interp=
olation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: aut=
o; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-a=
lign: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: ce=
nter;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, =
64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>End=
eavor now owns both Frieze, which had its fair in Seoul last week, and the =
Armory Show. But it would appear that Endeavor values the two art fairs qui=
te differently. In regulatory filings this Summer, </span><a href=3D"https:=
//substack.com/redirect/4bf5d764-54d7-4227-8a38-b940d7bf8f6f?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMj=
djZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: =
rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">Vornado revealed that it sold=
 the Armory Show for $24.4 million</a><span>. That&#8217;s an impressive nu=
mber for a regional art fair that was recently interrupted by the pandemic =
and also just made the transition from its long-time home on the piers to t=
he Javits center. To the untrained eye, that price would suggest an overall=
 value for Frieze which has four fairs might be nearly $100 million. Yet En=
deavor&#8217;s own formula for acquiring the remaining equity in Frieze val=
ues the global brand at just $55 million.</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(=
64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">When =
WME, now Endeavor, bought 70% of Frieze in 2016 when there were only two fa=
irs, one in London and the other in New York. Since then, Frieze New York h=
as been diminished in size since moving to The Shed at Hudson Yards. Meanwh=
ile, the fair has expanded internationally to Los Angeles and, in a bit of =
a masterstroke, Seoul. So why does it seem like the Armory is valued higher=
 than Frieze?</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Let&#8217;s go back to 2016. Because of =
the way that WME presented the deal for Frieze, it is difficult to know how=
 much WME paid. WME merged the numbers for the acquisition of Frieze into w=
ith the purchase of a US marketing firm called Fusion. WME paid $89.3 milli=
on for both firms.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Fusion was the larger firm in=
 terms of employees but probably not revenue or cash flow.&#160;How do we k=
now? The deal contained a put/call option for the outstanding 30% stake hel=
d by Frieze founders Amanda Sharpe and Matthew Slotover. The option was the=
re to allow Sharpe and Slotover to sell (or WME to buy) if they left the fi=
rm or by 2020&#8212;when presumably Frieze would be making a great deal mor=
e money.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line=
-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Using the option formula, we can deduce=
 Frieze&#8217;s cash flow in 2016, the year of the initial deal. The option=
 for Sharpe and Slotover&#8217;s 30% stake was valued in the contract at 7.=
5 times EBITDA or what most of us would think of as profit. Even though the=
 acquisition presented numbers that said Fusion and Frieze together had $10=
6 million in revenue and $3.6 million in EBIDTA, the formula for the option=
 suggests that Frieze on its own had EBIDTA of around $7.3 million.&#160;</=
p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; m=
argin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>If that&#8217;s the case, Frieze was valued at $5=
5 million in 2016. </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/6a31cebe=
-4637-419f-abae-be18f0ae13c3?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5=
iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration=
: underline;">In a May 2019 S-1 filing</a><span> when Endeavor went public,=
 the company stated that Sharpe and Slotover&#8217;s stake was worth $16.4 =
million based on numbers for 2017. But the outlook wasn&#8217;t great. A ye=
ar later the 30% stake had slid to $15.9 million. By March of 2019, just th=
ree months later, the value of the stake was projected to slide to $11.1 mi=
llion.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px;=
 line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The art market had a good year in =
2019, so that drop in EBIDTA probably reflected the investment Frieze was m=
aking in starting new fairs. Though beyond the addition of Frieze Los Angel=
es and Frieze Seoul, it isn&#8217;t apparent what the company was spending =
money on that would have impacted EBIDTA. So perhaps there was softening of=
 the over-crowded art fair business. Whatever the conditions, they would so=
on turn far worse than anyone might have imagined.&#160;</p><p style=3D"col=
or: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0=
;">Nothing could have been worse for the art fair business than the catacly=
sm of Covid. In that context, it isn&#8217;t really a surprise that neither=
 Endeavor nor Sharpe and Slotover were eager to exercise their put/ call op=
tions in 2020.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px=
; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">By May of this year, things had f=
inally improved. Even if it now took four fairs to generate the earnings th=
at used to come from just two fairs, Frieze was back in business and genera=
ting enough cash flow to bring the options back to their 2016 level. The ou=
tstanding 30% stake was now back at par from the deal seven years ago. Ende=
avor bought it for $16.5 million which values all of Frieze, pre-Armory Sho=
w and EXPO Chicago acquisition, at $55 million.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color:=
 rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">=
It isn&#8217;t surprising that Sharpe and Slotover would want out. This typ=
e of deal structure usually results when the sellers believe their company =
is worth more in the future than the buyers do. They either believed art fa=
irs would continue to grow and Frieze along with it or hoped that the addit=
ion of Endeavor&#8217;s capital and clout would accelerate the company&#821=
7;s growth. Neither of those things happened. Frieze expanded but the costs=
 outpaced the earnings. Whether this is because of stiff competition from A=
rt Basel or poor management or simply the overhang of Covid costs, we&#8217=
;ll never know.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The three-year out-of-date put/c=
all option had to be exercised. Yet it also seems likely the May transactio=
n helped clean up the ownership of Frieze for Endeavor to pursue buying EXP=
O Chicago and Armory show. That still doesn&#8217;t explain the very differ=
ent valuations for Frieze and Armory Show. Based on the 2016 formula, the A=
rmory Show would have to generate $3.25 million in cash to be worth $24.4.&=
#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">It seems unlikely that Vornado was reluctant to =
sell the Armory Show. The fair business is peripheral to Vornado&#8217;s co=
mmercial real estate empire which is beset by enormous challenges as New Yo=
rk tries to cope with a massive secular shift in commercial real estate. Th=
at should give us some confidence that Armory was generating the $3.25 mill=
ion from its yearly fair.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font=
-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">If that&#8217;s the ca=
se, why isn&#8217;t Frieze doing better? There&#8217;s a good chance Frieze=
 London has better numbers than Armory. So that means Frieze&#8217;s other =
three fairs are a drag on the company. It&#8217;s been seven years that End=
eavor has owned Frieze but there still doesn&#8217;t seem to be much of a p=
lan for how to expand the business beyond opening fairs in LA and Seoul whi=
ch will take time to contribute margin.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64,=
 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Worse, i=
t would seem that Frieze New York which struggled on Randall&#8217;s Island=
 and now seems ill-suited to The Shed has been swapped for the better perfo=
rming Armory Show. (If we didn&#8217;t have these numbers, no one would hav=
e made that comparison.) That may not be the case. But the combination of t=
he deal structure and the dramatically better presentation at the Javits Ce=
nter would seem to back that up. Another way to think about this is that Fr=
ieze had to buy the growth it was supposed to get organically by investing =
in itself.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">If that weren&#8217;t enough of a problem, =
there&#8217;s the impending confrontation with Art Basel. Frieze has been s=
mart to expand to places where Art Basel isn&#8217;t. But the Swiss company=
 doesn&#8217;t seem to respect the d&#233;tente. This year, the second edit=
ion of Paris Plus opens the week after Frieze London. Paradoxically, the ti=
ming may end up helping Frieze. The two fairs come close enough together fo=
r visitors to spend two weeks in Europe seeing a year&#8217;s worth of art.=
&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height:=
 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-bottom: 0;">That said, if the art world c=
ontinues to move its European operations from London to the Continent, over=
 time the advantage may shift toward Paris Plus. That&#8217;s without addin=
g the fact that Paris is the capital of the luxury goods industry and the c=
onvergence of art and fashion seem to favor that city as a global convening=
 point.&#160;&#160;</p></div></div><div class=3D"container-border" style=3D=
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