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Subject: What We Learned this Week (2333)
From: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
To: enzo@showfile.com
Message-Id: <20230818110105.3.45250ed279482ea5@mg2.substack.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2023 11:01:05 +0000
sender: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
References: <post-136136073@substack.com>
In-Reply-To: <post-136136073@substack.com>
Reply-To: Artelligence
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/what-we-le=
arned-this-week-2333

Welcome to Artelligence
This free Artelligence newsletter is published most Friday throughout the y=
ear. Additional newsletters analyzing auction data from LiveArt or featurin=
g our own reporting are for paid subscribers only.
Subscriptions are $12 a month or $120 for a year. For organizations, we off=
er group discounts for 30% for each subscription of two or more. Sharing a =
newsletter on occasion is fine; consistently circumventing group subscripti=
ons is not.=C2=A0
There is also an option to get a 7-day free trial. Just choose the subscrip=
tion plan you want and click on the 7-day trial option before checkout.=C2=
=A0
In This Issue
Lot Watch: The most Ferrari Ferrari to come to auction; Ed Ruscha=E2=80=99s=
 big Autumn opens with Bonhams sale in Los Angeles
Vox Orbis Artis: Take Our Poll on What=E2=80=99s Blue Chip Now?
The Myth of a Buyer=E2=80=99s Market: Don=E2=80=99t Get Your Hopes Up
Lot Watch
A $60 million Ferrari to Sell in Sotheby=E2=80=99s November Evening Sale
One of the car world=E2=80=99s most sought-after Ferrari=E2=80=99s will be =
offered in Sotheby=E2=80=99s November Evening sale. In 2018, RM Sotheby=E2=
=80=99s sold a 1962 Ferrari GTO 250 for $48 million. Since then, a unique M=
ercedes sold for $142 million. Those figures put some classic cars in the s=
ame price category as the most expensive works of art. So it isn=E2=80=99t =
surprising that Sotheby=E2=80=99s, whose corporate strategy embraces luxury=
 items as diverse as vacation homes, classic cars, collectible watches, han=
dbags, jewelry and other items, wants to auction this car in its most visib=
le sales. Nor is this the first time a car or house has been included in th=
ese sales. What makes this Ferrari special is that it is one of only 34 car=
s made. The 250 GTO is considered the apex of Ferrari styling but this car =
was one of two owned by Ferrari=E2=80=99s factory team. Race history adds t=
o the value of classic cars. RM Sotheby=E2=80=99s estimates the car to sell=
 for more than $60 million.
Paper Gem
MoMA=E2=80=99s Ed Ruscha /Now Then retrospective opens just after Labor day=
 this Fall. A week later on September 13th in Ruscha=E2=80=99s native Los A=
ngeles, Bonhams will offer a work on paper from an important period in the =
late 1960s when he created the highly valued Ribbon series of works on pape=
r often working in gunpowder as a medium. Bonhams has Gem from 1968, a work=
 on paper doesn=E2=80=99t have gunpowder, for sale with an estimate at $700=
,000. A similar sized work Vapor from 1970 sold in November made $730,800. =
And Pools also from 1970 made $693,000 in May. Both were sold above $400,00=
0 estimates.=20
The work leads a sale of 100 lots including works by Lynne Drexler, Lynda B=
englis, Ernie Barnes and Jaune Quick-to-See Smith.=20
The market for Ruscha=E2=80=99s art is somewhat unique in that his works on=
 paper have their own independent status as a market, although the painting=
s remain much more valuable. Last year, auction sales of Ruscha=E2=80=99s w=
orks on paper exceeded those of his paintings by $7 million, according to L=
iveArt=E2=80=99s data. There was $35 million spent on works on paper versus=
 the $28 million paid for paintings. That anomaly flipped back in the first=
 half of 2023 with only $6 million paid for works on paper including severa=
l from the Press collection versus the nearly $27 million spent on painting=
s, the bulk of that a single work from the Press family.
Vox Orbis Artis
Everyone is looking for Blue Chip. But the definition of Blue Chip is chang=
ing=E2=80=94especially as the best works become more and more expensive.=20
The Myth of a Buyer=E2=80=99s Market
It seems like everywhere you turn this Summer, we=E2=80=99re being told the=
 art market has become a =E2=80=9Cbuyer=E2=80=99s market.=E2=80=9D Much of =
the rationale for this claim comes from the fact that several different con=
tributing factors=E2=80=94the need to sell several large, important collect=
ions, pandemic effects upon buyers and broader macroeconomic effects create=
d by the pandemic=E2=80=94fell into a harmonic convergence in 2022 that cul=
minated in a crescendo of very strong sales.
As often happens with markets that seem to have run away, there comes a poi=
nt where supply exceeds demand and the market turns. The question is whethe=
r that happened in the first half of 2023 in a way that would suggest a mar=
ket dislocation. Artnet [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e=
20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx=
6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] says auction sales in the first half of 2023 were down 14% =
[ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]; Artta=
ctic says 18%.=C2=A0
These are big drops, indeed. Seen in the context, though, it may be putting=
 hope ahead of experience to declare the market either a buyer=E2=80=99s ma=
rket or, as Artnet did recently, =E2=80=9CBargain City.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0
Artnet is doing a lot of heavy breathing over some of the Spring=E2=80=99s =
less spectacular sales, especially the $197 million Gerald Fineberg collect=
ion (which still has works to sell) that underperformed estimates by at lea=
st 25%. They=E2=80=99re not alone. ARTnews chimed in this week in an email =
hyping the prospect of Emily Fisher Laundau=E2=80=99s art coming to auction=
 [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/102a0b5c-7981-40cb-a7af-8f1f669424e3?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]. =E2=
=80=9CA painting like the Fisher Landau Picasso =E2=80=9Cwill hopefully dem=
onstrate that the market has not come down=E2=80=9D over the past few month=
s, dealer Brett Gorvy told ARTnews,=E2=80=9D ARTnews wrote. =E2=80=9CMeanwh=
ile, an art adviser who asked to remain anonymous told ARTnews that the Pic=
asso could reinvigorate the market after wobbly sales in May.=E2=80=9D=C2=
=A0
Why exactly does that advisor need anonymity? But the quote hardly indicate=
s a buyer=E2=80=99s market.=C2=A0
Here Gorvy is trying to say what the auction houses have also been broadcas=
ting, there is still a great deal of demand among the very richest buyers f=
or top works of art. Although they make up a large part of the value of the=
se sales, the number of these buyers is quite small and there isn=E2=80=99t=
 a long list of works they want to spend more than $30 million on. So for F=
isher Landau=E2=80=99s 1932 Picasso, as Gorvy is saying, or the Klimt sold =
in London in June for $108 million or the $53 million Klimt sold in New Yor=
k in May or the Henri Rousseau sold for $43.5 million in New York, it=E2=80=
=99s really a seller=E2=80=99s market. Demand exceeds supply.=C2=A0
Three-Year Waves
If we want to look at the market in the broadest sense, it might help to ta=
ke a step back and consult Clare McAndrew=E2=80=99s annual report for Art B=
asel & UBS. Here we can begin to see a roughly three-year pattern of advanc=
ement and pullback.=C2=A0
The undulating wave of annual results creates a three-year wave pattern wit=
h crests from 2009-11, and again in 2012-14, then 2016-18, and finally 2020=
-23. Each three-year wave saw successive year-over-year rises in total sale=
s volume followed by a drop where the cycle starts over again. In 2015 and =
2019, There=E2=80=99s an extra year in between peak and trough but more oft=
en than not, the three-year cycle is clearly visible.=C2=A0
From 2011 to 2012, according to McAndrew=E2=80=99s numbers, the art market =
contracted by 13%. From 2014 to 2016, the fall was 16.5% with a 6.5% drop i=
n 2015 on the way to the bigger contraction. From 2018 to 2020, the market =
was down a dramatic 26% with 2019 only showing a 4.8% contraction. Obviousl=
y, the big drop in 2020 was due to the global pandemic=E2=80=99s disruption=
 of the entire commercial world.=C2=A0
If the first half of 2023 is a good guide to the full year=E2=80=99s result=
s, we=E2=80=99re looking at a drop deeper than 14-16 levels but less severe=
 than 18-20. None of this is anywhere near the nearly 36% drop from 2008 to=
 2009. That free fall caused Eli Broad to describe an auction in the Fall o=
f 2008, one that cratered in the wake of the mounting global financial cris=
is, as a =E2=80=9Chalf-price sale.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0
Half-Price Sale
That was a buyer=E2=80=99s market because there was little competition. You=
 had to have lots of cash and equal amounts of guts to buy at that moment. =
Even if you had both of those things, as Broad did, it felt too early. Broa=
d told The New York Times, =E2=80=9CI don=E2=80=99t think we=E2=80=99ve rea=
ched the bottom yet. We may be close.=E2=80=9D
After those 2008 sales, Gorvy himself gloomily recalled the market wastelan=
d of the early 1990s fully expecting a return to those arid days. In the wa=
ke of the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy, the art market pulled ba=
ck dramatically. The November 1990 New York auctions, The New York Times [ =
https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/2c50a4fc-0238-4303-9988-f525595ebf35?j=3De=
yJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ] said at th=
e time [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/2c50a4fc-0238-4303-9988-f525595eb=
f35?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ], =
saw only 80% of the Impressionist and Modern art works sell and just 50% of=
 the Contemporary works. Imagine the panic if that had happened in May!=20
During the Japanese-driven boom, Masao Wanibuchi bought Warhol=E2=80=99s Sh=
ot Red Marilyn for $4.1 million. Five years later in 1994, he sold it at au=
ction for $3.6 million.=20
For seven years, there was a buyer=E2=80=99s market until the Sally and Vic=
tor Ganz sale awakened competition and generated $206 million at Christie=
=E2=80=99s. At the time,  a single collection making $200 million, especial=
ly from Contemporary art, seemed like a fairy tale.
Gorvy=E2=80=99s worst fears in 2008 never materialized. The nadir for the g=
lobal economy came a few months later in March of 2009, almost exactly coin=
ciding with the Yves Saint Laurent-Pierre Berg=C3=A9 sale in Paris that mad=
e a record =E2=82=AC374 million ($504 million) trouncing the Ganz total. Th=
e point here is that even in Bargain City there are sales that are highly c=
ompetitive and favor the seller.=C2=A0
Caveat venditor!
The one positive thing about the =E2=80=9Cbuyer=E2=80=99s market=E2=80=9D m=
eme is when it acts as a warning to consignors to check their ambitions. Th=
is is a message that Josh Baer is putting out this week on social media and=
 in his podcast. No doubt the auction houses are doing the same.=20
On the demand side, it=E2=80=99s a very different story. There are few perm=
anent art buyers. Most collectors go through a 5-10 year period where they =
collect. Some go faster, a few are perennial buyers (and often sellers.) Ri=
ght now there seem to be plenty of buyers, maybe too many. Anyone who began=
 collecting during the last three year cycle (even those in the market for =
five or ten years) is probably champing to see prices pullback. The idea th=
at it is a buyer=E2=80=99s market may come from advisors flattering their c=
lients or simply wishful thinking.=C2=A0 Prices don=E2=80=99t seem to be co=
ming down as much as the market is narrowing around quality (whatever that =
may mean=E2=80=94see our poll above.)=C2=A0
Just what constitutes quality is also seemingly up for debate these days. I=
n an interview at a Bloomberg conference, Amy Cappellazzo pointed out to Ja=
mes Tarmy that there were a number of =E2=80=9Cbeat-up blue chip artists=E2=
=80=9D in the May sales. She cited Willem de Kooning and Lee Krasner whose =
works lacked competition. She might have added Wayne Thiebaud who saw stron=
g sales for one or two high-quality works but saw the majority of other pie=
ces on offer struggle.=C2=A0
Krasner aside, Saara Pritchard also points out in Artnet=E2=80=99s half-yea=
r report that demand for female Abstract Expressionists remains strong, Sur=
realism too. Pritchard makes another point that tempers the =E2=80=9Cbuyer=
=E2=80=99s market=E2=80=9D myth. She reminds us that the primary market rem=
ains very strong. Prices for many in-demand artists have equalized between =
auction and primary. Primary buyers are less visible but no less important =
to pricing or demand.=C2=A0
If the seller=E2=80=99s advantage had truly eroded or vanished, we wouldn=
=E2=80=99t see primary artists on the secondary market because there simply=
 wouldn=E2=80=99t be anyone there to pay the premium.=C2=A0
The Paradox of Hoping for Lower Prices
The optimism that paradoxically drives all of this talk of a buyer=E2=80=99=
s market=E2=80=94now=E2=80=99s my chance!=E2=80=94is the strongest evidence=
 that we have a long way to go before we reach the kind of capitulation tha=
t makes a real buyer=E2=80=99s market.=C2=A0
Look at Artnet [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3=
a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7=
gWdY ]=E2=80=99s take on the Fineberg sale [ https://link.sbstck.com/redire=
ct/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0=
jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]:
=E2=80=9CThey left millions of dollars on the table,=E2=80=9D said a New Yo=
rk-based art advisor whose client bought one of the top lots of the sale. G=
oing into the auction, the client was ready to pay $8 million for the histo=
ric work, which carried an estimate of $5 million to $7 million. The final =
price, including fees, was $6.1 million. It was an auction record for the a=
rtist=E2=80=94but considerably less than the buyer had been willing to fork=
 over. =E2=80=9CMy client is very happy,=E2=80=9D the advisor said.
A client ready to pay $8 million isn=E2=80=99t the same thing as a client w=
ho pays $8 million. The work being coyly discussed was Barkely Hendricks=E2=
=80=99s portrait of Stanley Whitney. Had the advisor=E2=80=99s client been =
willing to guarantee the work at $8 million, which seems a tad aggressive, =
one could fault the Fineberg family for refusing third-party guarantees and=
 losing a sale.=C2=A0
In this case, though, the work sold for the $5 million low estimate or $6.1=
 million with fees. Does that seem oddly low with the combination of a famo=
us artist as the subject and an important upcoming Hendricks show next mont=
h at the Frick? Yes. But the price was still an auction record and hardly w=
hat anyone would think of as a fire sale (though you could argue it might h=
ave sold for the $8 million or much more privately.)
The 25% or more gap between the presale expectations and what the Fineberg =
family realized was due to a combination of buyers resisting estimates, the=
 family eschewing guarantees and some level of market fatigue. That still l=
eaves us a good way away from the kind of market frustration that would put=
 buyer=E2=80=99s in control.=C2=A0
Much of the price resistance we=E2=80=99ve all been witnessing for a while =
in the market is a buyer=E2=80=99s strike. Bidders are chopping their incre=
ments at the first opportunity, often fighting auctioneers from the opening=
 bids. Private transactions have become standoffs with both buyers and sell=
ers anchored to their numbers.
The key missing factor, of course, is the failure of a broader economic dis=
location to materialize. But who hopes for a cruel recession just to get a =
painting for their price? That would be a big price to pay for a cheaper ar=
t market. It would also probably drive out of the market many of those hopi=
ng to see lower prices.=C2=A0
Right now, there=E2=80=99s nothing forcing anyone to sell. To categorize th=
is art market as a buyer=E2=80=99s market, we would need a dozen Ronald Per=
elmans forced to sell to meet other obligations.=C2=A0
If that were to happen, we wouldn=E2=80=99t see negotiations like this one =
described by  [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a=
0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7g=
WdY ]Artnet [ https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c=
49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWd=
Y ]:=C2=A0
=E2=80=9CSometimes in a good market, a person is asking $18 million and whe=
n you offer them $16 million, they spit at you,=E2=80=9D one advisor said. =
=E2=80=9CToday, they will pay attention to you. This is the buyer=E2=80=99s=
 market.=E2=80=9D
That=E2=80=99s not a buyer=E2=80=99s market. That=E2=80=99s a normal market=
 instead of one running on momentum.=20
A buyer=E2=80=99s market is when you have something that is worth $18 milli=
on. unexpectedly you find yourself in real need of cash and no asset you ca=
n turn into cash other than your $18 million painting. Except when you relu=
ctantly try to sell it, no one offers you $18 million =E2=80=A6 or even $16=
 million. They offer you $9 million=E2=80=94and you take it.

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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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@media (min-width: 300px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 350px) {
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@media (max-width: 400px) {
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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 750px) {
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


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</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
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important;margin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:=
0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-r=
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ont-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opa=
city:0;overflow:hidden;" class=3D"preview">Why a Buyer's Strike is differen=
t from a Buyer's Market + Ed Ruscha in LA + What Makes a Work Blue Chip? Ta=
ke our poll to help us find an answer. &#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#82=
04;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&=
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;&#160;&#8204;</div><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0=
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idth=3D"550" height=3D"117" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_11=
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ight: 26px;"><h1 class=3D"post-title published" style=3D"-moz-appearance: o=
ptimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance=
: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: opti=
mizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', =
-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sa=
ns-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-si=
ze: 32px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 36px; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"http=
s://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2259&post_id=3D136136073&ut=
m_source=3Dpost-email-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyN=
jg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywiaWF0IjoxNjkyMzU2OTQ2LCJleHAiOjE2OTQ5NDg5=
NDYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.vVGWtHuly-ihtrFGnz=
TdL3YvV1qafNowwaIbPeuNGcw" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration=
: none;">What We Learned this Week (2333)</a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle" st=
yle=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antial=
iased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: anti=
aliased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #808080; font-family: 'SF C=
ompact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Hel=
vetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI=
 Symbol'; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: =
4px 0 0; margin-top: 12px;">Why a Buyer's Strike is different from a Buyer'=
s Market + Ed Ruscha in LA + What Makes a Work Blue Chip? Take our poll to =
help us find an answer.</h3><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" bor=
der=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"post-meta" style=3D"=
align-items: center; height: 20px; margin: 1em 0;"><tr><td><table role=3D"p=
resentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0=
"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspac=
ing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div =
class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--VfQY8 frontend-pencr=
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temFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500=
; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unse=
t; text-transform: uppercase;"><a style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-fam=
ily: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystem=
Font, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji'=
, 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; l=
etter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: none; t=
ext-transform: uppercase;" href=3D"https://substack.com/@artelligence" clas=
s=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--VfQY8 frontend-pencraft-=
Text-module__size-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--=
p0dP8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--x7khA frontend-pencraft=
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--ud4Z0 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--IDkUL frontend-=
pencraft-Text-module__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--jzH=
dd">Marion Maneker</a></div></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=
=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft fro=
ntend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--VfQY8 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size=
-11--k1e8b frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--p0dP8 frontend-pe=
ncraft-Text-module__weight-medium--x7khA frontend-pencraft-Text-module__fon=
t-meta--U_nxy frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-secondary--WRADg fronten=
d-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--IDkUL frontend-pencraft-Text-m=
odule__reset--dW0zZ frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--jzHdd" style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(128, 128, 128); font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-s=
ystem, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial=
, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; fon=
t-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; ma=
rgin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><time dateTime=
=3D"2023-08-18T11:07:25.423Z">Aug 18</time></div></td></tr></table></td></t=
r></table></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" bor=
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lspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;">=
<table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"38" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" ce=
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serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size:=
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pacity: 1; outline: none; padding: 12px 20px; text-align: center; text-deco=
ration: none !important; white-space: nowrap;"><span style=3D"color: #fffff=
f; text-decoration: none;">Upgrade to paid</span></a></p></div><div style=
=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; =
border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"=
header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -m=
oz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;=
 -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color=
: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkM=
acSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Colo=
r Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-wei=
ght: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative=
;">In This Issue</h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"=
margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 6=
4, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; pa=
dding-left: 4px;"><strong>Lot Watch: </strong><span>The most Ferrari Ferrar=
i to come to auction</span><strong>;</strong><span> Ed Ruscha&#8217;s big A=
utumn opens with Bonhams sale in Los Angeles</span></p></li><li style=3D"ma=
rgin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64,=
 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padd=
ing-left: 4px;"><strong>Vox Orbis Artis:</strong><span> Take Our Poll on Wh=
at&#8217;s Blue Chip Now?</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;=
"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16=
px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><st=
rong>The Myth of a Buyer&#8217;s Market: </strong><span>Don&#8217;t Get You=
r Hopes Up</span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin:=
 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=
=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialias=
ed; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antiali=
ased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: =
'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto=
, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Seg=
oe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; =
margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Lot Watch</h2><h4 class=3D"he=
ader-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz=
-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -=
webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: =
rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMac=
SystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color =
Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weigh=
t: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;"=
>A $60 million Ferrari to Sell in Sotheby&#8217;s November Evening Sale</h4=
><div data-component-name=3D"ImageGalleryStatic" class=3D"frontend-componen=
ts-ImageGallery-module__static--gQ9AX frontend-components-ImageGallery-modu=
le__imageGallery--shoTe" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margi=
n: 32px 0; margin-inline-end: 0; margin-inline-start: 0; width: 100%;"><img=
 src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:go=
od,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%=
2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F773eb685-6918-4887-8ae5-96013723d1f3_1456x720.png" alt =
style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display:=
 block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: midd=
le;"></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height=
: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">One of the car world&#8217;s most sought-after=
 Ferrari&#8217;s will be offered in Sotheby&#8217;s November Evening sale. =
In 2018, RM Sotheby&#8217;s sold a 1962 Ferrari GTO 250 for $48 million. Si=
nce then, a unique Mercedes sold for $142 million. Those figures put some c=
lassic cars in the same price category as the most expensive works of art. =
So it isn&#8217;t surprising that Sotheby&#8217;s, whose corporate strategy=
 embraces luxury items as diverse as vacation homes, classic cars, collecti=
ble watches, handbags, jewelry and other items, wants to auction this car i=
n its most visible sales. Nor is this the first time a car or house has bee=
n included in these sales. What makes this Ferrari special is that it is on=
e of only 34 cars made. The 250 GTO is considered the apex of Ferrari styli=
ng but this car was one of two owned by Ferrari&#8217;s factory team. Race =
history adds to the value of classic cars. RM Sotheby&#8217;s estimates the=
 car to sell for more than $60 million.</p><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-=
widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothi=
ng: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoot=
hing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); =
font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Sego=
e UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI=
 Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-hei=
ght: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Paper Gem</h4><d=
iv class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; lin=
e-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width:=
 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspac=
ing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=
=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: cent=
er;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text=
-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://=
link.sbstck.com/redirect/234f627a-4cc2-4682-94b5-a01479b9e0b1?j=3DeyJ1IjoiM=
jdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-=
items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height=
: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; w=
idth: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-pos=
t-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6d6bf37f-2ec5-4d59-a59c-39034fb0bfba=
_8591x3546.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot=
;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:601,&quot;width&quot;:=
1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3520938,&quot;alt&quot;=
:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;=
href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&q=
uot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"227.026098901=
0989" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_291=
2,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-po=
st-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d6bf37f-2ec5-4d59-a59c-39034=
fb0bfba_8591x3546.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: n=
one !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom=
: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !impor=
tant;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table=
></figure></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-h=
eight: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>MoMA&#8217;s </span><em>Ed Ruscha /=
Now Then</em><span> retrospective opens just after Labor day this Fall. A w=
eek later on September 13th in Ruscha&#8217;s native Los Angeles, Bonhams w=
ill offer a work on paper from an important period in the late 1960s when h=
e created the highly valued Ribbon series of works on paper often working i=
n gunpowder as a medium. Bonhams has </span><em>Gem</em><span> from 1968, a=
 work on paper doesn&#8217;t have gunpowder, for sale with an estimate at $=
700,000. A similar sized work </span><em>Vapor</em><span> from 1970 sold in=
 November made $730,800. And Pools also from 1970 made $693,000 in May. Bot=
h were sold above $400,000 estimates. </span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64,=
 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The work=
 leads a sale of 100 lots including works by Lynne Drexler, Lynda Benglis, =
Ernie Barnes and Jaune Quick-to-See Smith. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 6=
4, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The market=
 for Ruscha&#8217;s art is somewhat unique in that his works on paper have =
their own independent status as a market, although the paintings remain muc=
h more valuable. Last year, auction sales of Ruscha&#8217;s works on paper =
exceeded those of his paintings by $7 million, according to LiveArt&#8217;s=
 data. There was $35 million spent on works on paper versus the $28 million=
 paid for paintings. That anomaly flipped back in the first half of 2023 wi=
th only $6 million paid for works on paper including several from the Press=
 collection versus the nearly $27 million spent on paintings, the bulk of t=
hat a single work from the Press family.</p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; =
line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height:=
 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-wi=
dget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing=
: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothi=
ng: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); fo=
nt-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe =
UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI E=
moji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-heigh=
t: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Vox Orbis Artis</h=
2><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; m=
argin: 0 0 20px 0;">Everyone is looking for Blue Chip. But the definition o=
f Blue Chip is changing&#8212;especially as the best works become more and =
more expensive. </p><table cellSpacing=3D"16px" width=3D"100%" class=3D"pol=
l-embed poll-email" style=3D"margin: 32px auto; max-width: 600px;"><tbody><=
tr><td align=3D"center"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"StaticPol=
l" class=3D"poll-email-wrapper" style=3D"border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .1=
3); border-radius: 12px; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: -apple-system=
, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, san=
s-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; padding:=
 16px 16px 8px; width: 100%;"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D=
"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td class=3D"po=
ll-header" style=3D"color: rgb(128, 128, 128); font-size: 12px; font-weight=
: 500; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 4px; padding: 0;">POLL</td></tr><t=
r width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-question" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); f=
ont-family: 'SF Pro Display', -apple-system-headline, -apple-system, -syste=
m-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif,=
 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 20px;=
 font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 8px; vertical-align: t=
op;"><td>For you&#8212;or your clients&#8212;what's the Blue Chip you're lo=
oking for?</td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" bor=
der=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"poll-options" style=
=3D"border-spacing: 0 12px;"><tr><td width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-option"><=
a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY=
2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2FwaS92MS9wb2xsL3ZvdGUvZW1haWw_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMmxr=
SWpveE16TXlOamcyTmpFc0luQnZjM1JmYVdRaU9qRXpOakV6TmpBM015d2ljRzlzYkY5cFpDSTZ=
PVFF6T1RBc0luQnZiR3hmYjNCMGFXOXVYMmxrSWpveU9EZzJOekVzSW1saGRDSTZNVFk1TWpNMU=
5qazBOaXdpWlhod0lqb3hOamswT1RRNE9UUTJMQ0pwYzNNaU9pSndkV0l0TWpJMU9TSXNJbk4xW=
WlJNkluQnZiR3d0ZG05MFpTSjkuWFQ3WmJBdUVhYTVBRXpidzRzZE9KZzZzRWF3dVlwQXZ6S3dw=
cFl2bjA3ZyIsInAiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywicyI6MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4NjYxLCJ=
pYXQiOjE2OTIzNTY5NDYsImV4cCI6MTY5NDk0ODk0NiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW=
5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0._3GWuDFWcXeGGgNJdlGuVcCpc8YOhmz-t8-DxIatvEU?" width=3D"10=
0%" class=3D"poll-vote-link" style=3D"background-color: rgb(238, 238, 238);=
 border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .13); border-radius: 6px; color: rgb(128, =
128, 128); display: block; height: 100%; padding: 10px 0; text-align: cente=
r; text-decoration: none; width: 100%;"><div class=3D"poll-vote-contents" s=
tyle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); display: block; font-size: 14px; font-weigh=
t: 600; height: 100%; line-height: 20px; width: 100%;">Any work by a major =
artist</div></a></td></tr><tr><td width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-option"><a h=
ref=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uu=
c3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2FwaS92MS9wb2xsL3ZvdGUvZW1haWw_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMmxrSWp=
veE16TXlOamcyTmpFc0luQnZjM1JmYVdRaU9qRXpOakV6TmpBM015d2ljRzlzYkY5cFpDSTZPVF=
F6T1RBc0luQnZiR3hmYjNCMGFXOXVYMmxrSWpveU9EZzJOeklzSW1saGRDSTZNVFk1TWpNMU5qa=
zBOaXdpWlhod0lqb3hOamswT1RRNE9UUTJMQ0pwYzNNaU9pSndkV0l0TWpJMU9TSXNJbk4xWWlJ=
NkluQnZiR3d0ZG05MFpTSjkuVUphNmR4OG9XOEdGV0RMRWozZ3lIOU9zb3JYcVNRQ0dZb3J4NVI=
tcU9oYyIsInAiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywicyI6MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4NjYxLCJpYX=
QiOjE2OTIzNTY5NDYsImV4cCI6MTY5NDk0ODk0NiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rL=
XJlZGlyZWN0In0.J6iWFtUeQlhNMG0UnTrfowxQEwq1CurEx7SiwBlR910?" width=3D"100%"=
 class=3D"poll-vote-link" style=3D"background-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); bo=
rder: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .13); border-radius: 6px; color: rgb(128, 128=
, 128); display: block; height: 100%; padding: 10px 0; text-align: center; =
text-decoration: none; width: 100%;"><div class=3D"poll-vote-contents" styl=
e=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); display: block; font-size: 14px; font-weight: =
600; height: 100%; line-height: 20px; width: 100%;">High quality work by a =
minor artist</div></a></td></tr><tr><td width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-option=
"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2=
VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2FwaS92MS9wb2xsL3ZvdGUvZW1haWw_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYM=
mxrSWpveE16TXlOamcyTmpFc0luQnZjM1JmYVdRaU9qRXpOakV6TmpBM015d2ljRzlzYkY5cFpD=
STZPVFF6T1RBc0luQnZiR3hmYjNCMGFXOXVYMmxrSWpveU9EZzJOek1zSW1saGRDSTZNVFk1TWp=
NMU5qazBOaXdpWlhod0lqb3hOamswT1RRNE9UUTJMQ0pwYzNNaU9pSndkV0l0TWpJMU9TSXNJbk=
4xWWlJNkluQnZiR3d0ZG05MFpTSjkuYm1mTENGeUpoSXA4ZDFOVWhqVnJaajdDOTRscTN6U2xQZ=
jNyNjZMdkItbyIsInAiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywicyI6MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4NjYx=
LCJpYXQiOjE2OTIzNTY5NDYsImV4cCI6MTY5NDk0ODk0NiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJ=
saW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.XnhShjfooKs6BesFqxAsM3_ZOj8HjJ2SPxz3PtAgM3M?" width=3D=
"100%" class=3D"poll-vote-link" style=3D"background-color: rgb(238, 238, 23=
8); border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .13); border-radius: 6px; color: rgb(12=
8, 128, 128); display: block; height: 100%; padding: 10px 0; text-align: ce=
nter; text-decoration: none; width: 100%;"><div class=3D"poll-vote-contents=
" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); display: block; font-size: 14px; font-we=
ight: 600; height: 100%; line-height: 20px; width: 100%;">Only great work b=
y a major artist</div></a></td></tr><tr><td width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-op=
tion"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbG=
xpZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2FwaS92MS9wb2xsL3ZvdGUvZW1haWw_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyV=
nlYMmxrSWpveE16TXlOamcyTmpFc0luQnZjM1JmYVdRaU9qRXpOakV6TmpBM015d2ljRzlzYkY5=
cFpDSTZPVFF6T1RBc0luQnZiR3hmYjNCMGFXOXVYMmxrSWpveU9EZzJOelFzSW1saGRDSTZNVFk=
1TWpNMU5qazBOaXdpWlhod0lqb3hOamswT1RRNE9UUTJMQ0pwYzNNaU9pSndkV0l0TWpJMU9TSX=
NJbk4xWWlJNkluQnZiR3d0ZG05MFpTSjkuSE4ydnhDRmJuSm1sNDVMeDlidkRUZk9TZUdMajdRd=
jZFWnBWOXVZZVkxTSIsInAiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywicyI6MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4=
NjYxLCJpYXQiOjE2OTIzNTY5NDYsImV4cCI6MTY5NDk0ODk0NiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWI=
iOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.MrtRV2Km9KQGPiauXYLYhL6HNXhUrCIrDjP90szby-o?" widt=
h=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-vote-link" style=3D"background-color: rgb(238, 238=
, 238); border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .13); border-radius: 6px; color: rg=
b(128, 128, 128); display: block; height: 100%; padding: 10px 0; text-align=
: center; text-decoration: none; width: 100%;"><div class=3D"poll-vote-cont=
ents" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); display: block; font-size: 14px; fon=
t-weight: 600; height: 100%; line-height: 20px; width: 100%;">A or B + good=
 provenance</div></a></td></tr><tr><td width=3D"100%" class=3D"poll-option"=
><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2V=
uY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2FwaS92MS9wb2xsL3ZvdGUvZW1haWw_dG9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMm=
xrSWpveE16TXlOamcyTmpFc0luQnZjM1JmYVdRaU9qRXpOakV6TmpBM015d2ljRzlzYkY5cFpDS=
TZPVFF6T1RBc0luQnZiR3hmYjNCMGFXOXVYMmxrSWpveU9EZzJOelVzSW1saGRDSTZNVFk1TWpN=
MU5qazBOaXdpWlhod0lqb3hOamswT1RRNE9UUTJMQ0pwYzNNaU9pSndkV0l0TWpJMU9TSXNJbk4=
xWWlJNkluQnZiR3d0ZG05MFpTSjkuekNiTDFtWnprZkVzbVhkbG9qRUQ3SU0zeGVhMktWbHNlY0=
d2eEowTnBlNCIsInAiOjEzNjEzNjA3MywicyI6MjI1OSwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTMzMjY4NjYxL=
CJpYXQiOjE2OTIzNTY5NDYsImV4cCI6MTY5NDk0ODk0NiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJs=
aW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.vT1zq8WCjTSJa0_83a-pPgnJ9nBGEz9Ow0GyFhIwli8?" width=3D"=
100%" class=3D"poll-vote-link" style=3D"background-color: rgb(238, 238, 238=
); border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, .13); border-radius: 6px; color: rgb(128=
, 128, 128); display: block; height: 100%; padding: 10px 0; text-align: cen=
ter; text-decoration: none; width: 100%;"><div class=3D"poll-vote-contents"=
 style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); display: block; font-size: 14px; font-wei=
ght: 600; height: 100%; line-height: 20px; width: 100%;">High quality work =
by new talent</div></a></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></tabl=
e></td></tr></tbody></table><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26p=
x;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32=
px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-=
moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -=
webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;=
 appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF C=
ompact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Hel=
vetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI=
 Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margi=
n: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">The Myth of a Buyer&#8217;s Market=
</h4><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16=
px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto;=
 width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" c=
ellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic=
" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-alig=
n: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"470" style=
=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"=
https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/4338883d-8519-46ff-b123-3a8508fb0a35?j=3De=
yJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=
=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: colu=
mn; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoratio=
n: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://su=
bstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f7855ee8-4362-4a41-b771-b0=
e3f2109bcc_470x470.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscr=
een&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:470,&quot;widt=
h&quot;:470,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:81686,&quot;alt&=
quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&=
quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:fal=
se,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"470" height=3D"470" cla=
ss src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_470,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:g=
ood,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com=
%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7855ee8-4362-4a41-b771-b0e3f2109bcc_470x470.jpeg" sty=
le=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: bl=
ock; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !impor=
tant; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=
=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class=3D"ima=
ge-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color: #808080; font-size: 14=
px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line-height: 20px; margin-top=
: 8px; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-align: center; width: 70=
%;">Warhol&#8217;s Shot Red Marilyn was bought in the 1980s market boom the=
n sold in the 1990s buyer&#8217;s market.</figcaption></figure></div><p sty=
le=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0=
 0 20px 0;">It seems like everywhere you turn this Summer, we&#8217;re bein=
g told the art market has become a &#8220;buyer&#8217;s market.&#8221; Much=
 of the rationale for this claim comes from the fact that several different=
 contributing factors&#8212;the need to sell several large, important colle=
ctions, pandemic effects upon buyers and broader macroeconomic effects crea=
ted by the pandemic&#8212;fell into a harmonic convergence in 2022 that cul=
minated in a crescendo of very strong sales.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, =
64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>As =
often happens with markets that seem to have run away, there comes a point =
where supply exceeds demand and the market turns. The question is whether t=
hat happened in the first half of 2023 in a way that would suggest a market=
 dislocation. </span><em><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b=
12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrM=
e5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decorati=
on: underline;">Artnet</a></em><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/=
aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQm=
MpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-de=
coration: underline;"> says auction sales in the first half of 2023 were do=
wn 14%</a><span>; Arttactic says 18%.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rg=
b(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><sp=
an>These are big drops, indeed. Seen in the context, though, it may be putt=
ing hope ahead of experience to declare the market either a buyer&#8217;s m=
arket or, as </span><em>Artnet</em><span> did recently, &#8220;Bargain City=
=2E&#8221;&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"c=
olor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><em>Artnet </em><span>is doing a=
 lot of heavy breathing over some of the Spring&#8217;s less spectacular sa=
les, especially the $197 million Gerald Fineberg collection (which still ha=
s works to sell) that underperformed estimates by at least 25%. They&#8217;=
re not alone. </span><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/102a0b5c-7=
981-40cb-a7af-8f1f669424e3?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iR=
nigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: =
underline;">ARTnews chimed in this week in an email hyping the prospect of =
Emily Fisher Laundau&#8217;s art coming to auction</a><span>. &#8220;A pain=
ting like the Fisher Landau Picasso &#8220;will hopefully demonstrate that =
the market has not come down&#8221; over the past few months, dealer Brett =
Gorvy</span><strong> </strong><span>told </span><em>ARTnews</em><span>,&#82=
21; ARTnews wrote. &#8220;Meanwhile, an art adviser who asked to remain ano=
nymous told </span><em>ARTnews </em><span>that the Picasso could reinvigora=
te the market after wobbly sales in May.&#8221;&#160;</span></p><p style=3D=
"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20=
px 0;">Why exactly does that advisor need anonymity? But the quote hardly i=
ndicates a buyer&#8217;s market.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64=
); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Here Gorvy is t=
rying to say what the auction houses have also been broadcasting, there is =
still a great deal of demand among the very richest buyers for top works of=
 art. Although they make up a large part of the value of these sales, the n=
umber of these buyers is quite small and there isn&#8217;t a long list of w=
orks they want to spend more than $30 million on. So for Fisher Landau&#821=
7;s 1932 Picasso, as Gorvy is saying, or the Klimt sold in London in June f=
or $108 million or the $53 million Klimt sold in New York in May or the Hen=
ri Rousseau sold for $43.5 million in New York, it&#8217;s really a seller&=
#8217;s market. Demand exceeds supply.&#160;</p><h5 style=3D"-moz-appearanc=
e: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appear=
ance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: =
optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Displa=
y', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial=
, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; fon=
t-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;">Three-Year W=
aves</h5><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size=
: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 a=
uto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"=
0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMSt=
atic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-=
align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" st=
yle=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=
=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/211cb006-9244-48ae-875b-7c3a2a1847fb?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel sty=
le=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: co=
lumn; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decorat=
ion: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://=
substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/286defac-775a-4b96-b21a-=
6ec48d49720a_2402x1472.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;full=
screen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:892,&quot;w=
idth&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:281906,&quot=
;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quo=
t;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;=
:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"336.=
95054945054943" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/f=
etch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fs=
ubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F286defac-775a-4b96-=
b21a-6ec48d49720a_2402x1472.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; =
border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; marg=
in-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: au=
to !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbod=
y></table><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-=
box; color: #808080; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -.1=
5px; line-height: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: =
15%; text-align: center; width: 70%;">2023 Art Basel UBS Art Market Report<=
/figcaption></figure></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 1=
6px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">If we want to look at the mark=
et in the broadest sense, it might help to take a step back and consult Cla=
re McAndrew&#8217;s annual report for Art Basel &amp; UBS. Here we can begi=
n to see a roughly three-year pattern of advancement and pullback.&#160;</p=
><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; ma=
rgin: 0 0 20px 0;">The undulating wave of annual results creates a three-ye=
ar wave pattern with crests from 2009-11, and again in 2012-14, then 2016-1=
8, and finally 2020-23. Each three-year wave saw successive year-over-year =
rises in total sales volume followed by a drop where the cycle starts over =
again. In 2015 and 2019, There&#8217;s an extra year in between peak and tr=
ough but more often than not, the three-year cycle is clearly visible.&#160=
;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px=
; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">From 2011 to 2012, according to McAndrew&#8217;s num=
bers, the art market contracted by 13%. From 2014 to 2016, the fall was 16.=
5% with a 6.5% drop in 2015 on the way to the bigger contraction. From 2018=
 to 2020, the market was down a dramatic 26% with 2019 only showing a 4.8% =
contraction. Obviously, the big drop in 2020 was due to the global pandemic=
&#8217;s disruption of the entire commercial world.&#160;</p><p style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px =
0;">If the first half of 2023 is a good guide to the full year&#8217;s resu=
lts, we&#8217;re looking at a drop deeper than 14-16 levels but less severe=
 than 18-20. None of this is anywhere near the nearly 36% drop from 2008 to=
 2009. That free fall caused Eli Broad to describe an auction in the Fall o=
f 2008, one that cratered in the wake of the mounting global financial cris=
is, as a &#8220;half-price sale.&#8221;&#160;</p><h5 style=3D"-moz-appearan=
ce: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appea=
rance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance:=
 optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Displ=
ay', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Aria=
l, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; fo=
nt-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;">Half-Price =
Sale</h5><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>That was a buyer&#8217;s market because th=
ere was little competition. You had to have lots of cash and equal amounts =
of guts to buy at that moment. Even if you had both of those things, as Bro=
ad did, it felt too early. Broad told </span><em>The New York Times</em><sp=
an>, &#8220;I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;ve reached the bottom yet. We may =
be close.&#8221;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 1=
6px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>After those 2008 sales, =
Gorvy himself gloomily recalled the market wasteland of the early 1990s ful=
ly expecting a return to those arid days. In the wake of the bursting of th=
e Japanese bubble economy, the art market pulled back dramatically. The Nov=
ember 1990 New York auctions, </span><em><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com=
/redirect/2c50a4fc-0238-4303-9988-f525595ebf35?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNh=
OM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64=
); text-decoration: underline;">The New York Times</a></em><a href=3D"https=
://link.sbstck.com/redirect/2c50a4fc-0238-4303-9988-f525595ebf35?j=3DeyJ1Ij=
oiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"col=
or: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;"> said at the time</a><spa=
n>, saw only 80% of the Impressionist and Modern art works sell and just 50=
% of the Contemporary works. Imagine the panic if that had happened in May!=
 </span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>During the Japanese-driven boom, Masao =
Wanibuchi bought Warhol&#8217;s </span><em>Shot Red Marilyn</em><span> for =
$4.1 million. Five years later in 1994, he sold it at auction for $3.6 mill=
ion. </span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-h=
eight: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">For seven years, there was a buyer&#8217;=
s market until the Sally and Victor Ganz sale awakened competition and gene=
rated $206 million at Christie&#8217;s. At the time,  a single collection m=
aking $200 million, especially from Contemporary art, seemed like a fairy t=
ale.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 2=
6px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Gorvy&#8217;s worst fears in 2008 never materiali=
zed. The nadir for the global economy came a few months later in March of 2=
009, almost exactly coinciding with the Yves Saint Laurent-Pierre Berg&#233=
; sale in Paris that made a record &#8364;374 million ($504 million) trounc=
ing the Ganz total. The point here is that even in Bargain City there are s=
ales that are highly competitive and favor the seller.&#160;</p><h5 style=
=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialias=
ed; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antiali=
ased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: =
'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto=
, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Seg=
oe UI Symbol'; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625e=
m 0;">Caveat venditor!</h5><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 1=
6px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The one positive thing about t=
he &#8220;buyer&#8217;s market&#8221; meme is when it acts as a warning to =
consignors to check their ambitions. This is a message that Josh Baer is pu=
tting out this week on social media and in his podcast. No doubt the auctio=
n houses are doing the same. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-s=
ize: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">On the demand side, it&#=
8217;s a very different story. There are few permanent art buyers. Most col=
lectors go through a 5-10 year period where they collect. Some go faster, a=
 few are perennial buyers (and often sellers.) Right now there seem to be p=
lenty of buyers, maybe too many. Anyone who began collecting during the las=
t three year cycle (even those in the market for five or ten years) is prob=
ably champing to see prices pullback. The idea that it is a buyer&#8217;s m=
arket may come from advisors flattering their clients or simply wishful thi=
nking.&#160; Prices don&#8217;t seem to be coming down as much as the marke=
t is narrowing around quality (whatever that may mean&#8212;see our poll ab=
ove.)&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-he=
ight: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Just what constitutes quality is also seem=
ingly up for debate these days. In an interview at a Bloomberg conference, =
Amy Cappellazzo pointed out to James Tarmy that there were a number of &#82=
20;beat-up blue chip artists&#8221; in the May sales. She cited Willem de K=
ooning and Lee Krasner whose works lacked competition. She might have added=
 Wayne Thiebaud who saw strong sales for one or two high-quality works but =
saw the majority of other pieces on offer struggle.&#160;</p><p style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px =
0;"><span>Krasner aside, Saara Pritchard also points out in </span><em>Artn=
et</em><span>&#8217;s half-year report that demand for female Abstract Expr=
essionists remains strong, Surrealism too. Pritchard makes another point th=
at tempers the &#8220;buyer&#8217;s market&#8221; myth. She reminds us that=
 the primary market remains very strong. Prices for many in-demand artists =
have equalized between auction and primary. Primary buyers are less visible=
 but no less important to pricing or demand.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px =
0;">If the seller&#8217;s advantage had truly eroded or vanished, we wouldn=
&#8217;t see primary artists on the secondary market because there simply w=
ouldn&#8217;t be anyone there to pay the premium.&#160;</p><h5 style=3D"-mo=
z-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -we=
bkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; a=
ppearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Com=
pact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helve=
tica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI S=
ymbol'; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;">T=
he Paradox of Hoping for Lower Prices</h5><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64=
); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The optimism th=
at paradoxically drives all of this talk of a buyer&#8217;s market&#8212;no=
w&#8217;s my chance!&#8212;is the strongest evidence that we have a long wa=
y to go before we reach the kind of capitulation that makes a real buyer&#8=
217;s market.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px;=
 line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Look at</span><em><span> </s=
pan><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0=
c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gW=
dY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">Artne=
t</a></em><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-af=
fe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g=
6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;"=
>&#8217;s take on the Fineberg sale</a><span>:</span></p><blockquote style=
=3D"border-left: 4px solid #653366; margin: 20px 0; padding: 0;"><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0=
 20px 0; margin-left: 20px;">&#8220;They left millions of dollars on the ta=
ble,&#8221; said a New York-based art advisor whose client bought one of th=
e top lots of the sale. Going into the auction, the client was ready to pay=
 $8 million for the historic work, which carried an estimate of $5 million =
to $7 million. The final price, including fees, was $6.1 million. It was an=
 auction record for the artist&#8212;but considerably less than the buyer h=
ad been willing to fork over. &#8220;My client is very happy,&#8221; the ad=
visor said.</p></blockquote><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">A client ready to pay $8 mill=
ion isn&#8217;t the same thing as a client who pays $8 million. The work be=
ing coyly discussed was Barkely Hendricks&#8217;s portrait of Stanley Whitn=
ey. Had the advisor&#8217;s client been willing to guarantee the work at $8=
 million, which seems a tad aggressive, one could fault the Fineberg family=
 for refusing third-party guarantees and losing a sale.&#160;</p><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0=
 20px 0;">In this case, though, the work sold for the $5 million low estima=
te or $6.1 million with fees. Does that seem oddly low with the combination=
 of a famous artist as the subject and an important upcoming Hendricks show=
 next month at the Frick? Yes. But the price was still an auction record an=
d hardly what anyone would think of as a fire sale (though you could argue =
it might have sold for the $8 million or much more privately.)</p><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0=
 20px 0;">The 25% or more gap between the presale expectations and what the=
 Fineberg family realized was due to a combination of buyers resisting esti=
mates, the family eschewing guarantees and some level of market fatigue. Th=
at still leaves us a good way away from the kind of market frustration that=
 would put buyer&#8217;s in control.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64=
, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Much of the=
 price resistance we&#8217;ve all been witnessing for a while in the market=
 is a buyer&#8217;s strike. Bidders are chopping their increments at the fi=
rst opportunity, often fighting auctioneers from the opening bids. Private =
transactions have become standoffs with both buyers and sellers anchored to=
 their numbers.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; lin=
e-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The key missing factor, of course, is =
the failure of a broader economic dislocation to materialize. But who hopes=
 for a cruel recession just to get a painting for their price? That would b=
e a big price to pay for a cheaper art market. It would also probably drive=
 out of the market many of those hoping to see lower prices.&#160;</p><p st=
yle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0 0 20px 0;">Right now, there&#8217;s nothing forcing anyone to sell. To ca=
tegorize this art market as a buyer&#8217;s market, we would need a dozen R=
onald Perelmans forced to sell to meet other obligations.&#160;</p><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0=
 20px 0;"><span>If that were to happen, we wouldn&#8217;t see negotiations<=
/span><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3=
a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7=
gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;"> li=
ke this one described by </a><em><a href=3D"https://link.sbstck.com/redirec=
t/aa682b12-ac25-4e20-affe-3a0c49e9e497?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0j=
QmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-=
decoration: underline;">Artnet</a></em><span>:&#160;</span></p><blockquote =
style=3D"border-left: 4px solid #653366; margin: 20px 0; padding: 0;"><p st=
yle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0 0 20px 0; margin-left: 20px;">&#8220;Sometimes in a good market, a person=
 is asking $18 million and when you offer them $16 million, they spit at yo=
u,&#8221; one advisor said. &#8220;Today, they will pay attention to you. T=
his is the buyer&#8217;s market.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p style=3D"color: =
rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">T=
hat&#8217;s not a buyer&#8217;s market. That&#8217;s a normal market instea=
d of one running on momentum. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-=
size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-bottom: 0;">A buy=
er&#8217;s market is when you have something that is worth $18 million. une=
xpectedly you find yourself in real need of cash and no asset you can turn =
into cash other than your $18 million painting. Except when you reluctantly=
 try to sell it, no one offers you $18 million &#8230; or even $16 million.=
 They offer you $9 million&#8212;and you take it.</p></div></div><div class=
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