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File: D:/hMailServer/Data/sarahharvey.com/sue/07/{07BF2271-8F20-4BB4-BA0C-43BCD4BDB0BC}.eml
Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2026 14:47:14 +0000 (UTC)
From: Lou Adler via LinkedIn <newsletters-noreply@linkedin.com>
Message-ID: <1519358227.30685825.1785768434387@lor1-app123675.prod.linkedin.com>
Subject: Using "Moneyball for HR!" to Predict Hiring Success
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To: Sue Home <sue@sarahharvey.com>
Require-Recipient-Valid-Since: sue@sarahharvey.com; Wed, 31 Dec 1969 23:59:59 +0000

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Win-Win Hiring

By Lou Adler


By Lou Adler

   =20
   =20
    Read this article on LinkedIn to join the conversation
Read on LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/comm/pulse/using-moneyball-hr-predict-hiring-succe=
ss-lou-adler-ka4ic?lipi=3Durn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_series_follow_newsl=
etter_02%3BORFFRuApSyOvbFE1Z%2FiUWA%3D%3D&midToken=3DAQFAbKIssAVDrw&midSig=
=3D2J1B6u11rT9co1&trk=3Deml-email_series_follow_newsletter_02-null-0-read_m=
ore_banner_cta_&trkEmail=3Deml-email_series_follow_newsletter_02-null-0-rea=
d_more_banner_cta_-null-wis8f~msdce8k3~du-null-null&eid=3Dwis8f-msdce8k3-du
 =20
It turns out every job can be plotted a radar map with each spoke measuring=
 the scope and complexity of the work itself. A candidate's major accomplis=
hments can be plotted on the same dimensions. Comparing the two shapes show=
s exactly where the person matches, where they're stretching, and where the=
 gap is too wide or whether the role represents a true career move. That's =
"Moneyball for HR!" and you can see it in action at this week's workshop. (=
All attendees will get a free Claude "Moneyball for HR!" skill, too.) Consi=
der this. A Type 1 mistakes is hiring the wrong person. The radar map point=
s this out graphically. A Type 2 mistakes is not hiring the best person. Th=
e best people typically aren't looking and they most often have non-traditi=
onal backgrounds. "Moneyball for HR!" opens the talent pool to these candid=
ates by assessing by what they've accomplished, not by box-checking their s=
kills. Most companies aren=E2=80=99t just making bad hires. They=E2=80=99re=
 missing out on exceptional ones. When a new hire underperforms, it=E2=80=
=99s rarely a mystery. It=E2=80=99s usually a Type 1 hiring mistake (hiring=
 the wrong person): The Dumb Mistakes: Poor team and culture fit that resul=
ts in fast, high-friction failures. The Common Mistakes: Quiet underperform=
ers who interview brilliantly but lack execution power. Stopping Type 1 mis=
takes stops you from losing ground. But preventing Type 2 mistakes is how y=
ou win. A Type 2 mistake happens when traditional hiring filters - like req=
uiring arbitrary degrees, rigid years of experience, or reliance on gut fee=
l - make the best people invisible. The top candidates are filtered out bef=
ore they ever reach an interview. Sherlock Holmes explaining the difference=
s between good and weak evidence. This free Claude skill allows hiring mana=
gers to evaluate the quality of the evidence they've collected to make the =
yes or no hiring decision. It basically conducts a Sherlock Holmes audit of=
 the evidence used to make the hiring decision and describes what's accurat=
e, what's biased and what's missing. When the evidence is complete it then =
accurately predicts Quality of Hire and post-hire Gallup's Q12 engagement s=
cores. The Double-Double Mistake Avoider When you fix these mistakes, you d=
on't just eliminate bad hires. You shift your entire performance baseline u=
pward since you're also attracting stronger talent in the process. The "Mon=
eyball for HR!" question: What does the person need to do to be considered =
a great success? This is where "Moneyball for HR!" is the key to solving bo=
th problems: Define Performance, Not Credentials: Write job descriptions ba=
sed on key outcomes (KPOs), not arbitrary requirement checklists. This wide=
ns the field to high performers with non-traditional backgrounds. Assess wi=
th Objective Evidence: Ditch structured resume interrogation. Use real work=
 examples and behavioral debriefs to reveal true capability. Sell the Impac=
t, Not Just the Paycheck: Top performers want growth and challenge. Pitch t=
he scope of the opportunity to win their buy-in. When you eliminate bad hir=
es and stop filtering out unseen talent, your baseline shifts: your average=
 hire becomes what used to be your Top 25%. None of this is possible using =
traditional hiring processes, resume screening filters that are common to b=
oth weak and strong candidates, or some type of personality test that predi=
cts preferences not competences. It will happen when your company switches =
to a "Moneyball for HR!" approach for hiring. That will be a great day.
Keep reading on LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/comm/pulse/using-moneyball-hr-predict-hiring-succe=
ss-lou-adler-ka4ic?lipi=3Durn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_series_follow_newsl=
etter_02%3BORFFRuApSyOvbFE1Z%2FiUWA%3D%3D&midToken=3DAQFAbKIssAVDrw&midSig=
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 =20
     =20

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td style=3D"-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; mso=
-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt;"> <a href=3D"https://www.linkedi=
n.com/comm/pulse/using-moneyball-hr-predict-hiring-success-lou-adler-ka4ic?=
lipi=3Durn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_series_follow_newsletter_02%3BORFFRuAp=
SyOvbFE1Z%2FiUWA%3D%3D&amp;midToken=3DAQFAbKIssAVDrw&amp;midSig=3D2J1B6u11r=
T9co1&amp;trk=3Deml-email_series_follow_newsletter_02-newsletter_content_pr=
eview-0-title_&amp;trkEmail=3Deml-email_series_follow_newsletter_02-newslet=
ter_content_preview-0-title_-null-wis8f~msdce8k3~du-null-null&amp;eid=3Dwis=
8f-msdce8k3-du" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"no-underline font-medium text-sm=
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or HR!" to Predict Hiring Success </h2> </a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style=3D"=
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yle=3D"font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.25; color: rgba(0,=
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n> </div> <table role=3D"presentation" valign=3D"top" border=3D"0" cellspac=
ing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"email-button " data-tes=
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banner_cta_-null-wis8f~msdce8k3~du-null-null&amp;eid=3Dwis8f-msdce8k3-du" t=
arget=3D"_blank" tabindex=3D"-1" aria-hidden=3D"true" class=3D"no-underline=
" style=3D"color: #0a66c2; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; text-dec=
oration: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; =
text-decoration-line: none;"> <span class=3D"no-underline text-white" style=
=3D"color: #ffffff; text-decoration-line: none;"> Read on LinkedIn </span> =
</a> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </a> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div=
> </td> </tr> <tr data-test-id=3D"newsletter-content-preview--content"> <td=
 class=3D"font-sans text-md leading-open text-system-gray-90" style=3D"-web=
kit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; mso-table-lspace: 0=
pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacS=
ystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', 'Fira Sans', Ubuntu, Oxyge=
n, 'Oxygen Sans', Cantarell, 'Droid Sans', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI E=
moji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Lucida Grande', Helvetica, Ari=
al, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #282828;"> <div d=
ata-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p class=3D"m-0 mt-1.5 text-md leadi=
ng-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; margin-top: 12px; font-siz=
e: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class=3D"italic" data-test-id=3D"little-=
text-block" style=3D"font-style: italic;">It turns out every job can be plo=
tted a radar map with each spoke measuring the scope and complexity of the =
work itself. A candidate's major accomplishments can be plotted on the same=
 dimensions. Comparing the two shapes shows exactly where the person matche=
s, where they're stretching, and where the gap is too wide or whether the r=
ole represents a true career move. </span> </p> </div> <div data-test-id=3D=
"publishing-text-block"> <p class=3D"m-0 mt-1.5 text-md leading-open" style=
=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; margin-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 1.5;"> <span class=3D"italic" data-test-id=3D"little-text-block" st=
yle=3D"font-style: italic;"><a href=3D"https://hiring.tips/PerfectHiring_in=
teractive_completre" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"inline no-underline cursor-=
pointer text-color-link font-bold" data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block-li=
nk" style=3D"text-decoration: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-tex=
t-size-adjust: 100%; display: inline; cursor: pointer; font-weight: 600; co=
lor: #0a66c2; text-decoration-line: none;">That's "Moneyball for HR!" and y=
ou can see it in action at this week's workshop</a></span><span class=3D"it=
alic" data-test-id=3D"little-text-block" style=3D"font-style: italic;">. (A=
ll attendees will get a free Claude "Moneyball for HR!" skill, too.) </span=
> </p> </div> <div data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p class=3D"m-0 =
mt-1.5 text-md leading-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; margin=
-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class=3D"italic" dat=
a-test-id=3D"little-text-block" style=3D"font-style: italic;">Consider this=
. A Type 1 mistakes is hiring the wrong person. The radar map points this o=
ut graphically. A Type 2 mistakes is not hiring the best person. The best p=
eople typically aren't looking and they most often have non-traditional bac=
kgrounds. "Moneyball for HR!" opens the talent pool to these candidates by =
assessing by what they've accomplished, not by box-checking their skills. <=
/span> </p> </div> <hr data-test-id=3D"publishing-divider-block" class=3D"m=
y-1 h-[1px] border-0 bg-system-gray-60" style=3D"margin-top: 8px; margin-bo=
ttom: 8px; height: 1px; border-width: 0; background-color: #8c8c8c;"> <div =
data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p class=3D"m-0 mt-1.5 text-md lead=
ing-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; margin-top: 12px; font-si=
ze: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class=3D"font-[700]" data-test-id=3D"li=
ttle-text-block" style=3D"font-weight: 700;">Most companies aren=E2=80=99t =
just making bad hires. They=E2=80=99re missing out on exceptional ones.</sp=
an> </p> </div> <div data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p class=3D"m-=
0 mt-1.5 text-md leading-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; marg=
in-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class data-test-id=
=3D"little-text-block">When a new hire underperforms, it=E2=80=99s rarely a=
 mystery. It=E2=80=99s usually a Type 1 hiring mistake (hiring the wrong pe=
rson):</span> </p> </div> <div data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p c=
lass=3D"m-0 mt-1.5 text-md leading-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin:=
 0px; margin-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class da=
ta-test-id=3D"little-text-block"> <ul class=3D"block mt-2 mr-0 ml-3 p-0" da=
ta-test-id=3D"little-template-list-unordered" style=3D"margin-left: 24px; m=
argin-right: 0px; margin-top: 16px; display: block; padding: 0px;"> <li cla=
ss=3D"mt-1.5 ml-2 text-md leading-open text-system-gray-90" style=3D"margin=
-left: 16px; margin-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #2=
82828;"> <span class data-test-id=3D"little-text-block">The Dumb Mistakes: =
Poor team and culture fit that results in fast, high-friction failures.</sp=
an> </li> <li class=3D"mt-1.5 ml-2 text-md leading-open text-system-gray-90=
" style=3D"margin-left: 16px; margin-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-heigh=
t: 1.5; color: #282828;"> <span class data-test-id=3D"little-text-block">Th=
e Common Mistakes: Quiet underperformers who interview brilliantly but lack=
 execution power.</span> </li> </ul> </span> </p> </div> <div data-test-id=
=3D"publishing-text-block"> <blockquote class=3D"block my-3 mx-0 py-0 pr-0 =
pl-1.5 leading-open not-italic text-cool-gray-80 text-lg font-bold font-san=
s border-solid border-0 border-l-4 border-l-system-gray-80" data-test-id=3D=
"publishing-text-block-blockquote" style=3D"margin-left: 0px; margin-right:=
 0px; margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px; display: block; border-width: =
0; border-left-width: 4px; border-style: solid; border-left-color: #424242;=
 padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 12px; padding-right: =
0px; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI',=
 Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', 'Fira Sans', Ubuntu, Oxygen, 'Oxygen Sans', Cant=
arell, 'Droid Sans', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji=
', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Lucida Grande', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-s=
ize: 20px; font-weight: 600; font-style: normal; line-height: 1.5; color: #=
38434f;"> <p class=3D"m-0 text-md leading-regular font-medium" style=3D"mar=
gin: 0px; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.25;"> <span cla=
ss data-test-id=3D"little-text-block">Stopping Type 1 mistakes stops you fr=
om losing ground. But preventing Type 2 mistakes is how you win.</span> </p=
> </blockquote> </div> <div data-test-id=3D"publishing-text-block"> <p clas=
s=3D"m-0 mt-1.5 text-md leading-open" style=3D"font-weight: 400; margin: 0p=
x; margin-top: 12px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"> <span class data-=
test-id=3D"little-text-block">A Type 2 mistake happens when traditional hir=
ing filters - like requiring arbitrary degrees, rigid years of experience, =
or reliance on gut feel - make the best people invisible. The top candidate=
s are filtered out before they ever reach an interview.</span> </p> </div> =
<span>...</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class=3D"pt-2 no-underline" style=3D"=
-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; mso-table-lspac=
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t-preview__bottom-cta" data-test-id=3D"email-button" style=3D"-webkit-text-=
size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-t=
able-rspace: 0pt;"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign=3D"middle" align=3D"left" style=
=3D"-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; mso-table-l=
space: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt;"> <a href=3D"https://www.linkedin.com/co=
mm/pulse/using-moneyball-hr-predict-hiring-success-lou-adler-ka4ic?lipi=3Du=
rn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_series_follow_newsletter_02%3BORFFRuApSyOvbFE1=
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eight: min-content; border-radius: 24px; padding-top: 12px; padding-bottom:=
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ckground-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: #0a66c2; border-width: 1px; border=
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