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Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2026 17:50:11 +0100
From: "Emma Wilks (HSBC Research)" <HSBC.Research@hsbcib.com>
Reply-To: Emma Wilks <emma.wilks@hsbc.com>
To: <SALES@HYPERFLIGHT.CO.UK>
Message-ID: <1487395483.545595.1780332611201@kvm-gbl25209359-scamps-email-scheduler-cluster-research>
Subject: UK in Focus : Essential UK economic news for businesses
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
nter" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; border-spac=
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ps://research.hsbc.com/" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration:=
none;"> <img width=3D"100%" src=3D"cid:templates.assets.headers.economics.=
png@hsbc.com" alt=3D"HSBC Top Banner" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: blo=
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<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(118, 118, 118);"><sp=
an>Economics : United Kingdom</span> | <span>01-Jun-26</span></h4></td>
</tr><!-- Document Title -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<h1 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.5em; font-weight: bold;">UK in Focus</h1>
<h2 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.625em;">Essential U=
K economic news for businesses</h2></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
</tr><!-- Top Synopsis -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; border-=
spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<td>
<ul style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;list-style-position: ins=
ide;">
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Headline indicators =
evidence the UK's relatively benign position before the latest energy suppl=
y shock=E2=80=A6</span></li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
=E2=80=A6but business surveys point to weaker demand and greater price pres=
sures=E2=80=A6</span></li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
=E2=80=A6a combination which could leave the BoE on the sidelines, waiting =
for more clarity before deciding on any policy change </span></li>
</ul></td>
</tr><!-- Video Thumbnail --> <!-- Report Link -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;"><a href=3D"https://www.resea=
rch.hsbc.com/R/20/gM6TGtTfCvSZ" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-deco=
ration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weigh=
t: normal;background-color:#020202; text-decoration: none; padding: .5em 2e=
m; color: #FCFDFF; display:inline-block; mso-padding-alt:0;text-underline-c=
olor:#020202"> <!--[if mso]><i style=3D"mso-font-width:200%;mso-text-raise:=
100%" hidden> </i><span style=3D"mso-text-raise:50%;"><![endif]--> <sp=
an>Read report</span> <span> <span>( </span> <span>2</span> <span>page<span=
>s</span></span> <span> )</span> </span> <!--[if mso]></span><i style=3D"ms=
o-font-width:200%;" hidden> ​</i><![endif]--> </a></td>
</tr>
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</table></td>
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34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
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spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign=3D"top" style=3D"vertical-align: top"><img width=
=3D"50" height=3D"66" src=3D"cid:analysts.mbXGZ.jpg@hsbc.com" alt=3D"Analys=
t photo" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-height: 100%; outlin=
e: none; text-decoration: none;"></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 1em;">
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Emma Wilks</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;"><span>UK Economist</span><b=
r><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); =
text-decoration: none;">emma=E2=80=8B.wilks=E2=80=8B@hsbc=E2=80=8B.com</a><=
br><a href=3D"https://www.research.hsbc.com/S/10/s/analyst/mbXGZ" style=3D"=
color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;color: rgb(32, 57, 157);"> <=
span>Subscribe to </span> <span>Emma</span> <span>'s</span> <span> research=
</span> </a></p></td>
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<td><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com?subject=3D=
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ref=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com?subject=3DMeeting%20Request&cc=3Daskr=
esearch@hsbc.com&body=3DHello%20Emma%2C%20I%20am%20interested%20in%20yo=
ur%20report%20on%20%27UK%20in%20Focus%20%3A%20Essential%20UK%20economic%20n=
ews%20for%20businesses%27%20and%20would%20like%20to%20contact%20you%20to%20=
discuss%20further" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;=
font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;colo=
r: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Req=E2=80=8Buest a meet=E2=80=8Bing<=
/span> </a></td>
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</tbody>
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ay: inline-block; width: 8.7em; max-width: 8.7em">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"=
width=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; b=
order-spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<tr>
<td><a href=3D"https://blinks.bloomberg.com/ib/32372=
023" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;"> <img src=3D=
"cid:templates.assets.social.bloomberg.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"32" height=3D=
"32" alt=3D"Bloomberg chat" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-h=
eight: 100%; outline: none; text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 0.25em;"><a h=
ref=3D"https://blinks.bloomberg.com/ib/32372023" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 1=
5, 15); text-decoration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.=
75em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Bloom=
=E2=80=8Bberg chat</span> </a></td>
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ay: inline-block; width: 6.9em; max-width: 6.9em">
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width=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; b=
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<td><a href=3D"https://open.symphony.com/?startChat=
=3D69337952110052" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;=
"> <img src=3D"cid:templates.assets.social.symphony.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"=
32" height=3D"32" alt=3D"Symphony" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block;=
line-height: 100%; outline: none; text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
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font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%">=
Sym=E2=80=8Bphony</a></td>
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ay: inline-block; width: 5.2em; max-width: 5.2em">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"=
width=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; b=
order-spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<td><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"=
color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;"> <img src=3D"cid:templates=
.assets.social.email.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"32" height=3D"32" alt=3D"Email"=
style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-height: 100%; outline: none;=
text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 0.25em;"><a h=
ref=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-d=
ecoration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-wei=
ght: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Em=E2=80=8Bail</span=
> </a></td>
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<td style=3D"display: inline-block"> </td>
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</tbody>
</table></td>
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<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
</tr><!-- Document Synopsis -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; border-=
spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Sector divergence acr=
oss activity indicators</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>On t=
he face of it, the official data over the past month has been encouraging. =
Growth came in stronger than expected in Q1, the rate of inflation slowed t=
o 2.8% y-o-y in April, and labour market conditions were soft =E2=80=93 sof=
t enough such that the risk of persistent inflation was subsiding but not w=
eak enough to be of major concern to activity. However, those indicators ar=
e inherently backward looking, and other than higher petrol prices putting =
now upward pressure on inflation, largely reflect economic conditions befor=
e the conflict in the Middle East.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Time=
lier business surveys paint a less reassuring picture. The PMI survey in Ma=
y showed a loss of activity momentum and confidence in future output, drive=
n by a subdued services sector. Within the sector, concerns are broad based=
, from higher energy costs, business rates, inflation and falling demand, w=
ith the pressures most acute in hospitality. The manufacturing sector, mean=
while, was more resilient, with the output index rising to its highest sinc=
e October 2024. However, that perceived momentum is likely to be short live=
d given that both the proportion of manufacturers accumulating inventory, a=
nd those reporting global supply chain disruption, have doubled, according =
to an ONS business survey.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>For =
consumers, while official pay data may overstate the current decline in rea=
l incomes (-0.5% 3m/3m). Other pay indicators point to more robust pay grow=
th but, in any case, a likely rise in inflation over the summer will drag o=
n household purchasing power. Moreover, subdued confidence and heightened u=
ncertainty may leave consumers sat on the sidelines, with both the housing =
market and leisure travel having already seen a drop in demand.</span></p>
<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Price=
pressures and policy choices</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Alon=
gside the troubling demand backdrop, price pressures have intensified to le=
vels comparable to previous global price shocks (chart 2). Forty percent of=
firms reported a rise in the cost of inputs in April, according to an ONS =
survey, with 20% of firms expected to raise prices in June. Higher energy a=
nd raw material prices are compounding elevated labour costs, and with furt=
her supply disruption possible, those pressures may persist over the second=
half of 2026. However, realised price increases have often undershot expec=
tations (chart 3), a possible reflection of an inability to fully pass cost=
s on when pressures are sector agnostic and demand is weak.</span></p></td>
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