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Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2026 16:39:10 +0100
From: "Emma Wilks (HSBC Research)" <HSBC.Research@hsbcib.com>
Reply-To: Emma Wilks <emma.wilks@hsbc.com>
To: <SALES@HYPERFLIGHT.CO.UK>
Message-ID: <1572014197.405690.1785857950638@kvm-gbl20127202-scamps-email-scheduler-cluster-research>
Subject: UK in Focus : Essential UK economic news for businesses
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
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<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;"><a target=3D"_blank" href=3D"htt=
ps://research.hsbc.com/" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration:=
none;"> <img width=3D"100%" src=3D"cid:templates.assets.headers.economics.=
png@hsbc.com" alt=3D"HSBC Top Banner" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: blo=
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<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(118, 118, 118);"><sp=
an>Economics : United Kingdom</span> | <span>04-Aug-26</span></h4></td>
</tr><!-- Document Title -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<h1 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.5em; font-weight: bold;">UK in Focus</h1>
<h2 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.625em;">Essential U=
K economic news for businesses</h2></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
</tr><!-- Top Synopsis -->
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
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spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<ul style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;list-style-position: ins=
ide;">
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Consumer demand was =
boosted by the hot weather and the World Cup through June and July</span></=
li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
The BoE left rates unchanged but pointed to the upside risks to, and uncert=
ain outlook for, inflation</span></li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
PM Burnham announced some small policy changes, but the big tough decisions=
are yet to come</span></li>
</ul></td>
</tr><!-- Video Thumbnail --> <!-- Report Link -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;"><a href=3D"https://www.resea=
rch.hsbc.com/R/20/XJlhPcpfCvSZ" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-deco=
ration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weigh=
t: normal;background-color:#020202; text-decoration: none; padding: .5em 2e=
m; color: #FCFDFF; display:inline-block; mso-padding-alt:0;text-underline-c=
olor:#020202"> <!--[if mso]><i style=3D"mso-font-width:200%;mso-text-raise:=
100%" hidden> </i><span style=3D"mso-text-raise:50%;"><![endif]--> <sp=
an>Read report</span> <span> <span>(</span> <span>1</span> <span>page<span>=
</span></span> <span>)</span> </span> <!--[if mso]></span><i style=3D"mso-f=
ont-width:200%;" hidden> ​</i><![endif]--> </a></td>
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<td valign=3D"top" style=3D"vertical-align: top"><img width=
=3D"50" height=3D"66" src=3D"cid:analysts.mbXGZ.jpg@hsbc.com" alt=3D"Analys=
t photo" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-height: 100%; outlin=
e: none; text-decoration: none;"></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 1em;">
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Emma Wilks</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;"><span>UK Economist</span><b=
r><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); =
text-decoration: none;">emma=E2=80=8B.wilks=E2=80=8B@hsbc=E2=80=8B.com</a><=
br><a href=3D"https://www.research.hsbc.com/S/10/s/analyst/mbXGZ" style=3D"=
color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;color: rgb(32, 57, 157);"> <=
span>Subscribe to</span> <span>Emma</span><span>'s</span> <span>research</s=
pan> </a></p></td>
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th=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; borde=
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ay: inline-block; width: 9.6em; max-width: 9.6em">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"=
width=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; b=
order-spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
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<td><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com?subject=3D=
Meeting%20Request&cc=3Daskresearch@hsbc.com&body=3DHello%20Emma%2C%=
20I%20am%20interested%20in%20your%20report%20on%20%27UK%20in%20Focus%20%3A%=
20Essential%20UK%20economic%20news%20for%20businesses%27%20and%20would%20li=
ke%20to%20contact%20you%20to%20discuss%20further" style=3D"color: rgb(179, =
15, 15); text-decoration: none;"> <img src=3D"cid:templates.assets.social.b=
ook-a-meeting.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"32" height=3D"32" alt=3D"Request a mee=
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<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 0.25em;"><a h=
ref=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com?subject=3DMeeting%20Request&cc=3Daskr=
esearch@hsbc.com&body=3DHello%20Emma%2C%20I%20am%20interested%20in%20yo=
ur%20report%20on%20%27UK%20in%20Focus%20%3A%20Essential%20UK%20economic%20n=
ews%20for%20businesses%27%20and%20would%20like%20to%20contact%20you%20to%20=
discuss%20further" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;=
font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;colo=
r: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Req=E2=80=8Buest a meet=E2=80=8Bing<=
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<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 0.25em;"><a h=
ref=3D"https://blinks.bloomberg.com/ib/32372023" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 1=
5, 15); text-decoration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.=
75em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Bloom=
=E2=80=8Bberg chat</span> </a></td>
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ay: inline-block; width: 6.9em; max-width: 6.9em">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"=
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<td><a href=3D"https://open.symphony.com/?startChat=
=3D69337952110052" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;=
"> <img src=3D"cid:templates.assets.social.symphony.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"=
32" height=3D"32" alt=3D"Symphony" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block;=
line-height: 100%; outline: none; text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 0.25em;"><a h=
ref=3D"https://open.symphony.com/?startChat=3D69337952110052" style=3D"colo=
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Sym=E2=80=8Bphony</a></td>
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ay: inline-block; width: 5.2em; max-width: 5.2em">
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order-spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
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<td><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"=
color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;"> <img src=3D"cid:templates=
.assets.social.email.png@hsbc.com" width=3D"32" height=3D"32" alt=3D"Email"=
style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-height: 100%; outline: none;=
text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
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ref=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-d=
ecoration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-wei=
ght: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);width: 100%"> <span>Em=E2=80=8Bail</span=
> </a></td>
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</table></td>
<td style=3D"display: inline-block"> </td>
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<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
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spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<td>
<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>A bit hot all round=
=E2=80=A6</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>The =
UK economy entered the summer with decent consumer momentum, as we had expe=
cted in last month's </span> <a href=3D"https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/=
wmwD6RbXJlhPcp" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;">U=
K in Focus</a> <span>. Retail sales in June rose 1.0% m-o-m, bolstered by s=
ales related to the hot weather and the FIFA World Cup. Notwithstanding tho=
se events, retail sales rose 2.6% 3m/yr (chart 1), likely supported by real=
income growth at +0.4% y-o-y in June, and a fall in the net inflow of cash=
savings year-to-date. However, the hot weather was cited as reducing footf=
all =E2=80=93 online sales grew strongly =E2=80=93 and fuel sales were down=
, despite lower prices.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>That=
said, the prospect, and change, of Prime Minister in July appears to have =
helped bolster consumer confidence, particularly across younger age cohorts=
(see </span> <a href=3D"https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/pWJzPRnXJlhPcp"=
style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;">UK data round-up=
, 24 July 2026</a> <span>) (chart 2). Meanwhile, business surveys reported =
improved activity in July, notably UK services PMI returned to expansion, m=
anufacturers continued to report growth, but employment growth remained sof=
t.</span></p>
<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 1em;"><span>=E2=
=80=A6but can it last?</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Whil=
e a sizzling summer of activity is welcomed, some caution over its sustaina=
bility is warranted given the looming headwinds in the second half of the y=
ear. Importantly, for households, it will depend on the path of real income=
growth and the confidence to draw upon savings. On the former, inflation s=
lowed to 2.6% y-o-y in June, but is set to rise to c3.7% in Q4 (chart 3), a=
nd with private-sector nominal wage growth expected to remain subdued, the =
squeeze in household budgets will tighten further, although if the savings =
rate falls faster than we expect, demand could remain relatively resilient.=
But we expect volatile conditions in the Middle East and uncertainty from =
domestic policymakers to keep a lid on any upside news on demand in H226.</=
span></p>
<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Bank =
of England's mixed messaging=E2=80=A6</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>At i=
ts latest policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee, voted 6-3 in favou=
r of leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% (see </span> <a href=3D"http=
s://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/fQv7bSkXJlhPcp" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15,=
15); text-decoration: none;">One vote closer, still two votes short, 30 Ju=
ly 2026</a> <span>). Against a backdrop of global uncertainty, the tone of =
the committee was cautious and the risks to inflation were still judged to =
be on the upside. The BoE is vigilant to risk that the disruption in the Mi=
ddle East sparks second-round inflation effects, ie, price rises ripple thr=
ough non-energy sectors and into wage negotiations.</span></p></td>
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