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Subject: "Too late to sell, too early to buy."
From: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/too-late-t=
o-sell-too-early-to-buy
Welcome to Artelligence
The Artelligence newsletter comes out every Friday with What We Learned thi=
s Week. Depending on the art market calendar or news cycle, you will receiv=
e other emails from this account on an irregular basis.
We are eager to hear from you. If you have questions, tips or suggestions f=
or coverage, contact us here [ mailto:maneker@artmarketmonitor.com ]. Feel =
free to forward the email to anyone you think would like to subscribe.
Please check your spam folder! Some new subscribers may not have received t=
he newsletter in their inbox immediately.
In This Issue
The Dial: New York=E2=80=99s Gigaweek =3D $1.8 billion
What Happened in New York: The numbers are stronger than we perceived, espe=
cially in the middle market
Results: Top Ten, Most Dynamic Bidding
Quintiles: Hammer ratios for all lots by quintiles
Market Share: Top artists by dollars spent
The Unguarded Market: Is a Sale without Guarantees Pure or Just Naked? A co=
llector shares some auction-night insight
The Dial
New York=E2=80=99s sales cycle of auctions at Bonhams, Christie=E2=80=99s, =
Phillips and Sotheby=E2=80=99s had a total of $1.8 billion in cash exchange=
d for art. The average lot value was $1,008,416 down substantially from the=
$1.8 million in both May and November of 2022. That=E2=80=99s a nearly 45%=
drop. The overall sell-through rate was 85%. Of the sold lots, 34% saw agg=
ressive bidding, 37% were sold in the estimate range, and 29% of the consig=
nors had to reevaluate their expectations.=20
What Happened in New York?
New York=E2=80=99s $1.8bn Gigaweek caused more than a little anxiety and co=
nsternation. There=E2=80=99s bad news in the numbers=E2=80=94and a few brig=
ht spots. Here=E2=80=99s the bad news: Compared to 2022, the May sales cycl=
e was down nearly $1.4bn from the previous season and $935m from the previo=
us year. The overall hammer ratio for this cycle was well off the 1.13 and =
1.10 levels of last year to a weak 1.01 this month. The sell-through rate w=
as down two percentage points from the Fall and the previous year. Now here=
=E2=80=99s the bight spot: part of the problem was that consignors offered =
too many works. There were more lots presented this month than in November =
of last year or the previous May. Remarkably, 18% more lots were sold this =
season than a year ago in May. Without the exceptionally high value of work=
s from the Allen collection in November or part two of the Macklowe collect=
ion in May, the average lot value dropped significantly. This is a big issu=
e for the top of the market. But in the middle market, demand remains persi=
stent and bidding is strong. (See below for more detail.) That may be a pos=
itive indicator that art remains in demand despite the significant strains =
on the global economy.
Results
Top Ten Lots
It=E2=80=99s a very good sign that half of the top ten lots were sold on mu=
ltiple bids, especially when the top half of the table sold between $40-70m=
=2E That was once a difficult price ban=
d and to see multiple bidders chasing=20=
work there offers some indication that the very upper reaches of the market=
can still be competitive. The Magritte number opens up a whole new level f=
or the artist. The Klimt selling to Japan is also a positive sign. On the o=
ther hand, the Bacon self portrait selling for essentially the same prices =
as a very similar work sold for 15 years ago should be concerning.=20
Most Dynamic Bidding
The most aggressively bid upon lots remain an interesting mix of work from =
new names, overlooked historical artists and even a Picasso earthenware pit=
cher produced in an edition of 500. Only two of the lots reached a final pr=
ice around $1m. Three lots reached prices around $500,000. Three made price=
s in the low six figures and two were sold for five-figure sums.=20
Quintiles
As the dynamic bidding chart reveals, the most competition in these sales c=
ame at the lowest price point. Strong bidding was seen on works estimated b=
etween $1000 and $30,000. There was also a lot of activity in the $60,000 t=
o $150,000 estimate range. Bidding was weaker but still quite positive in t=
he Middle Low range of $30,000 to $60,000 estimates. Above $150,000, the bi=
dding falls off sharply. Obviously there were lots at these price points th=
at saw strong competitive bidding. On the whole, the top two quintiles are =
just priced to a point where estimates are aspirational instead of indicati=
ve.=20
Market Share
The market share chart is most significant for lack of a dominating presenc=
e. Picasso is less than 10% of the overall market. Monet and Warhol don=E2=
=80=99t even appear among the top twelve artists by dollars spent. Four art=
ists appear on the list primarily because of the value of a single lot. On =
the whole, these numbers are a positive sign. The art market is getting bro=
ader and encompasses a greater range of artists and art. There were more th=
an 800 different artists represented in these sales.=20
The Unguarded Market: Is a Sale without Guarantees Pure or Just Naked?
Aside from buying art, the second favorite pastime in the art world is spin=
ning up with theories to explain market behavior. With that in mind, a coll=
ector sat at breakfast last Friday on the tail end of the 10-day auction cy=
cle trying to explain why the Fineberg collection had caused such a hiccup =
in the art market.=C2=A0
=E2=80=9CI used to think the art market was the night of the sale,=E2=80=9D=
the collector prefaced. Here we should add that this person is a serious b=
uyer who participates actively in the market=E2=80=94as a buyer and seller,=
as well as acting as an advisor to or agent for others. That is to say, we=
=E2=80=99re listening to someone involved in all aspects of the market, inc=
luding regularly providing third-party guarantees on lots. =E2=80=9CBut I n=
ow realize that the market takes place over a longer cycle in the days and =
weeks leading up to a sale.=E2=80=9D
The Fineberg estate chose a novel=E2=80=94but more common in recent seasons=
=E2=80=94strategy to sell their $200 million collection. Following the exam=
ple of the Sollinger collection at Sotheby=E2=80=99s last season, Fineberg=
=E2=80=99s heirs negotiated for the best possible terms without accepting a=
guarantee. In an accelerating market, this could have paid off handsomely =
as it mostly did for Sollinger. It is universally accepted that we are no l=
onger in an upward market. The question was whether the auction houses coul=
d match supply and demand to engineer a soft landing. Most everyone views t=
he current market warily. Too much is changing on too many levels.=C2=A0
Naked and Afraid
The mystery surrounding Fineberg is why the estate chose not to accept any =
third-party guarantees before the sale. Christie=E2=80=99s was transparent =
after the sale that their feedback from collectors was cautious. Some works=
by big names were good but not must-have items; some were estimated for a =
different market; still, collectors were circling many of the other works w=
ith excitement. At breakfast, our collector was frustrated not to have been=
able to put a lock on some of the works in advance by providing a third-pa=
rty guarantee at numbers above the advances. As it happened, the collector =
bid on=E2=80=94and won=E2=80=94at least one lot in the Fineberg sale after =
competitive bidding. This isn=E2=80=99t someone who chickened out but, as w=
e=E2=80=99ll see, the vibe surrounding the sale did put this person on the =
sidelines for some lots.
Even having previously judged some of the other works good buys at the esti=
mate level, our collector=E2=80=94along with many others judging from the s=
ale results=E2=80=94got spooked by the presale buzz and decided not to bid.=
Why? It turns out the mood of the market plays an important role. With the=
estate turning down guarantees, Christie=E2=80=99s had only one tool left:=
hit the phones. Specialists called collectors and dangled the idea that wo=
rks were going to be sold at whatever the market would bear. As the auction=
approached, Sotheby=E2=80=99s and Phillips had their own compromise sales =
take place on important lots. That added to the sense of a market teetering=
=2E=C2=A0
At showtime for Fineberg, buyers judged the smart move was to err on the si=
de of caution. Last Wednesday night, what one reporter tried to describe as=
a =E2=80=9Cpure=E2=80=9D market because there were no guarantees became a =
gun-to-the-head market, only the most confident could bid. Choosing wrong s=
eemed much riskier than just sitting on your paddle and watching. Those who=
had must-buy works were rewarded with far less competition. One advisor le=
ft the saleroom after nabbing an Alex Katz gleefully all but skipping.=C2=
=A0
Shock Absorbers
One auction hardly a scientific study of guarantees but there=E2=80=99s a l=
ot of confusion around the role these market collars play. Many market part=
icipants complain that guarantees distort prices. They declare loudly in th=
e press that the auction houses are artificially supporting unreal numbers.=
=20
One advisor warns that guarantors should not be confused with buyers, meani=
ng there are a lot of parties who would take a guarantee but would not bid =
competitively. The guarantee is effectively a put option. It gives the guar=
antor the right to become a seller above their price. The downside risk is =
owning the work but the upside goal is just getting paid. For the party who=
doesn=E2=80=99t really want to own the work, the auction holds no positive=
outcome. Without allowing guarantors to participate, the estate unwittingl=
y narrowed the pool of potential bidders in a market where buyers already h=
ad enough reason to stay home.
Without the ability to guide the market with the judicious use of third-par=
ty guarantees, our collector believes, Christie=E2=80=99s was left pushing =
on string to generate demand. With third-party guarantees in place, our col=
lector estimates the sale could have made 25% more than the $197 million fi=
nal tally. That=E2=80=99s a pretty big miss=E2=80=94though it is hard to im=
agine being upset at a $197 million haul.=C2=A0
None of that would have held back the repricing the market made last week e=
ven as the Fineberg day sale and Sotheby=E2=80=99s day sale both demonstrat=
ed that there were still animal spirits loose for the right lots. The broad=
er mood of the market was bruised with or without Fineberg, our collector h=
as come to accept. Had Christie=E2=80=99s been able to put in a market floo=
r with guarantees, it might have cushioned the shock but the market had alr=
eady turned. Our collector was pretty sanguine about it. =E2=80=9CSomeone I=
know recently told me, and I think this is right,=E2=80=9D our collector c=
oncluded, =E2=80=9Cit=E2=80=99s too late to sell and too early to buy.=E2=
=80=9D
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</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
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style=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !importa=
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tant;margin-left:0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !im=
portant;padding-right:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;"/><img src=3D=
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Q7sK2w" alt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px =
!important;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 !imp=
ortant;margin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !=
important;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-righ=
t:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div style=3D"display:none;font=
-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacit=
y:0;overflow:hidden;" class=3D"preview">Results for New York's $1.8 Billion=
sales + Why One Buyer Mostly Sat Out the Fineberg sale  ‌ =
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100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"email-body-=
container"><tr><td></td><td width=3D"550" class=3D"content"></td><td></td><=
/tr><tr><td></td><td align=3D"left" width=3D"550" class=3D"content"><div st=
yle=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 auto; max-width: 550px=
; overflow-wrap: break-word; width: 100%;"><table role=3D"presentation" wid=
th=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td align=
=3D"right" style=3D"height: 20px;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"au=
to" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"verti=
cal-align: middle;"><span class=3D"tw-font-body tw-text-ssm tw-text-substac=
k-secondary" style=3D"color: #808080 !important; font-family: SF Pro Text, =
-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Inter, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Aria=
l, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol !importan=
t; font-size: 13px !important;"><a href=3D"https://open.substack.com/pub/ar=
telligence/p/too-late-to-sell-too-early-to-buy?utm_source=3Demail&redirect=
=3Dapp-store" class=3D"tw-text-substack-secondary tw-underline" style=3D"-w=
ebkit-text-decoration-line: underline !important; color: #808080 !important=
; text-decoration-line: underline !important;">Open in app</a> or <a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3V=
ic3RhY2suY29tL3AvdG9vLWxhdGUtdG8tc2VsbC10b28tZWFybHktdG8tYnV5P3Rva2VuPWV5Sj=
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711goe-Q?" class=3D"tw-text-substack-secondary tw-underline" style=3D"-webk=
it-text-decoration-line: underline !important; color: #808080 !important; t=
ext-decoration-line: underline !important;">online</a></span></td></tr></ta=
ble></td></tr></table><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" class=3D"=
header graphic-header" style=3D"border-spacing: 0; padding: 16px 0 32px;"><=
tr><td align=3D"center" style=3D"padding: 0; text-align: center;"><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3V=
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711goe-Q?"><img role=3D"presentation" width=3D"550" height=3D"110" src=3D"h=
ttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro=
gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%=
2Fimages%2Fe3cfc2fc-ffba-4eae-8c1a-7c9381cc0cef_1100x220.png" class=3D"head=
er-image" style=3D"border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; m=
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</td></tr></table><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D"post typography" style=3D"font=
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ader" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><h1 class=3D"post-title=
published" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smo=
othing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-s=
moothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font=
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px; margin: 0;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_i=
d=3D2259&post_id=3D123410942&utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&isFreemail=3Dtru=
e&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzMyNjg2NjEsInBvc3RfaWQiOjEyMzQxMDk0MiwiaWF0IjoxN=
jg0OTM3MDg0LCJleHAiOjE2ODc1MjkwODQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjU5Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1y=
ZWFjdGlvbiJ9.J4N9G0CwpC-i538pN5alR5LxObwBz-cp_vkFen8r2AY" style=3D"color: #=
404040; text-decoration: none;">"Too late to sell, too early to buy.&q=
uot;</a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegib=
ility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizele=
gibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibili=
ty; color: #808080; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, Blink=
MacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Col=
or Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 18px; font-weigh=
t: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 12px;">Results f=
or New York's $1.8 Billion sales + Why One Buyer Mostly Sat Out the Fineber=
g sale</h3><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspa=
cing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"post-meta" style=3D"align-items: cent=
er; height: 20px; margin: 1em 0;"><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" widt=
h=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td><table =
role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpad=
ding=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft=
frontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--tAIEo frontend-pencraft-Text-module__=
size-11--1-ofT frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--1soeQ fronten=
d-pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--aTbx5 frontend-pencraft-Text-module_=
_font-meta--2i-cR frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-primary--2I-sF front=
end-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--38jbr frontend-pencraft-Text=
-module__reset--20JLV frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--3RRSj custom-css=
-email-post-author" style=3D"color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact', -ap=
ple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Robo=
to, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'S=
egoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; l=
ine-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset; text-transform: upperc=
ase;"><a style=3D"color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system,=
-apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helveti=
ca, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sym=
bol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height:=
20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: none; text-transform: uppercase;" href=
=3D"https://substack.com/profile/735466-marion-maneker" class=3D"pencraft f=
rontend-pencraft-Box-module__reset--tAIEo frontend-pencraft-Text-module__si=
ze-11--1-ofT frontend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--1soeQ frontend-=
pencraft-Text-module__weight-medium--aTbx5 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__f=
ont-meta--2i-cR frontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-primary--2I-sF fronten=
d-pencraft-Text-module__transform-uppercase--38jbr frontend-pencraft-Text-m=
odule__reset--20JLV frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--3RRSj">Marion Mane=
ker</a></div></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentatio=
n" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tr><td =
style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft frontend-pencraft-=
Box-module__reset--tAIEo frontend-pencraft-Text-module__size-11--1-ofT fron=
tend-pencraft-Text-module__line-height-20--1soeQ frontend-pencraft-Text-mod=
ule__weight-medium--aTbx5 frontend-pencraft-Text-module__font-meta--2i-cR f=
rontend-pencraft-Text-module__color-secondary--XjVGl frontend-pencraft-Text=
-module__transform-uppercase--38jbr frontend-pencraft-Text-module__reset--2=
0JLV frontend-pencraft-Text-module__meta--3RRSj" style=3D"color: #808080; f=
ont-family: 'SF Compact', -apple-system, -apple-system, -system-ui, BlinkMa=
cSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color=
Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 11px; font-weight:=
500; letter-spacing: .2px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; text-decoration: =
unset; text-transform: uppercase;"><time dateTime=3D"2023-05-24T14:03:09.75=
9Z">May 24</time></div></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></tabl=
e><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0=
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r-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-os=
x-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -web=
kit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #40=
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This Issue</strong></h2><ol style=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=
=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #4040=
40; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; paddin=
g-left: 4px;"><strong>The Dial: </strong><span>New York’s Gigaweek =
=3D $1.8 billion</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: =
26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>What Happene=
d in New York: </strong><span>The numbers are stronger than we perceived, e=
specially in the middle market</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 =
32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px;=
line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><stron=
g>Results: </strong><span>Top Ten, Most Dynamic Bidding</span></p></li><li =
style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: =
#404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; p=
adding-left: 4px;"><strong>Quintiles: </strong><span>Hammer ratios for all =
lots by quintiles</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p sty=
le=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height:=
26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Market Shar=
e: </strong><span>Top artists by dollars spent</span></p></li><li style=3D"=
margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: #404040; =
font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-le=
ft: 4px;"><strong>The Unguarded Market: Is a Sale without Guarantees Pure o=
r Just Naked? </strong><span>A collector shares some auction-night insight<=
/span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr =
style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; pa=
dding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appe=
arance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-a=
ppearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appeara=
nce: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display',=
-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, s=
ans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-s=
ize: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em=
0; position: relative;">The Dial</h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-contain=
er-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"=
><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapp=
er" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=
=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: cent=
er;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"534" style=3D"text-=
align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://s=
ubstackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A=
%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef64ecec-4e1=
9-415c-91e3-616d95c60ad3_1024x1024.jpeg" rel style=3D"align-items: center; =
border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin:=
0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><i=
mg data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amaz=
onaws.com/public/images/ef64ecec-4e19-415c-91e3-616d95c60ad3_1024x1024.jpeg=
","fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height&=
quot;:1024,"width":1024,"resizeWidth":534,"bytes&q=
uot;:257973,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":&q=
uot;image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,&q=
uot;topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"5=
34" height=3D"534" class src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_534,c=
_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-=
media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef64ecec-4e19-415c-91e3-616d95c6=
0ad3_1024x1024.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none=
!important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0=
; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !importan=
t;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></=
figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px=
; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">New York’s sales cycle of auctions at Bonhams,=
Christie’s, Phillips and Sotheby’s had a total of $1.8 billion=
in cash exchanged for art. The average lot value was $1,008,416 down subst=
antially from the $1.8 million in both May and November of 2022. That’=
;s a nearly 45% drop. The overall sell-through rate was 85%. Of the sold lo=
ts, 34% saw aggressive bidding, 37% were sold in the estimate range, and 29=
% of the consignors had to reevaluate their expectations. </p><div style=3D=
"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; bor=
der: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"hea=
der-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-=
osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -w=
ebkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #=
404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFon=
t, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', '=
Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; =
line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">What Hap=
pened in New York?</h2><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-he=
ight: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>New York’s $1.8bn Gigaweek cau=
sed more than a little anxiety and consternation. There’s bad news in=
the numbers—and a few bright spots. </span><strong>Here’s the =
bad news:</strong><span> Compared to 2022, the May sales cycle was down nea=
rly $1.4bn from the previous season and $935m from the previous year. The o=
verall hammer ratio for this cycle was well off the 1.13 and 1.10 levels of=
last year to a weak 1.01 this month. The sell-through rate was down two pe=
rcentage points from the Fall and the previous year. </span><strong>Now her=
e’s the bight spot:</strong><span> part of the problem was that consi=
gnors offered too many works. There were more lots presented this month tha=
n in November of last year or the previous May. Remarkably, 18% more lots w=
ere sold this season than a year ago in May. Without the exceptionally high=
value of works from the Allen collection in November or part two of the Ma=
cklowe collection in May, the average lot value dropped significantly. This=
is a big issue for the top of the market. But in the middle market, demand=
remains persistent and bidding is strong. (See below for more detail.) Tha=
t may be a positive indicator that art remains in demand despite the signif=
icant strains on the global economy.</span></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; heig=
ht: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor=
-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smooth=
ing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoo=
thing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-fa=
mily: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', =
Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji'=
, 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.=
16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Results</h2><h4 class=
=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility=
; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibil=
ity; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; c=
olor: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSy=
stemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Em=
oji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight:=
bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">T=
op Ten Lots</h4><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"fo=
nt-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"marg=
in: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" bor=
der=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em=
0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"l=
eft" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a clas=
s=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fe=
tch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-med=
ia.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda82bb8c-3369-48a4-b5f9-212c81b47dd=
e_1596x486.png" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: bl=
ock; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position:=
relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"s=
rc":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d=
a82bb8c-3369-48a4-b5f9-212c81b47dde_1596x486.png","fullscreen&quo=
t;:null,"imageSize":null,"height":443,"width"=
:1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":213597,"alt"=
:null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","h=
ref":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,&qu=
ot;internalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"167.3420329670=
3296" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_291=
2,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-po=
st-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda82bb8c-3369-48a4-b5f9-212c8=
1b47dde_1596x486.png" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: non=
e !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: =
0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !importa=
nt;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><=
/figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26p=
x; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">It’s a very good sign that half of the top te=
n lots were sold on multiple bids, especially when the top half of the tabl=
e sold between $40-70m. That was once a difficult price band and to see mul=
tiple bidders chasing work there offers some indication that the very upper=
reaches of the market can still be competitive. The Magritte number opens =
up a whole new level for the artist. The Klimt selling to Japan is also a p=
ositive sign. On the other hand, the Bacon self portrait selling for essent=
ially the same prices as a very similar work sold for 15 years ago should b=
e concerning. </p><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-app=
earance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-=
appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appear=
ance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Display'=
, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, =
sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-=
size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625e=
m 0; position: relative;">Most Dynamic Bidding</h4><div class=3D"captioned-=
image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin=
: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=
=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpaddin=
g=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"tex=
t-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" =
style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" hre=
f=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:=
steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%=
2F34f811b8-4f37-475f-98c6-815f0c575af5_1598x488.png" rel style=3D"align-ite=
ms: center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: a=
uto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; widt=
h: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://substack-post-m=
edia.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/34f811b8-4f37-475f-98c6-815f0c575af5_15=
98x488.png","fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,&qu=
ot;height":445,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,&qu=
ot;bytes":206995,"alt":null,"title":null,"typ=
e":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold"=
;:true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" alt w=
idth=3D"550" height=3D"168.09752747252747" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"http=
s://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progre=
ssive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fi=
mages%2F34f811b8-4f37-475f-98c6-815f0c575af5_1598x488.png" style=3D"-ms-int=
erpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: =
auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertica=
l-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align:=
center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #4040=
40; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The most aggre=
ssively bid upon lots remain an interesting mix of work from new names, ove=
rlooked historical artists and even a Picasso earthenware pitcher produced =
in an edition of 500. Only two of the lots reached a final price around $1m=
=2E Three lots reached prices around $5=
00,000. Three made prices in the low s=
ix figures and two were sold for five-figure sums. </p><h2 class=3D"header-=
with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-=
font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webki=
t-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #4040=
40; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, '=
Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Sego=
e UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line=
-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Quintiles</h=
2><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;=
line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; wi=
dth: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cell=
spacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tb=
ody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"=
content" width=3D"502" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link=
" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_au=
to:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws=
=2Ecom%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36ac7ed8-216=
5-43f6-8cf3-a3990f2d0c28_1024x1024.jpe=
g" rel style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-dir=
ection: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; te=
xt-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":&quo=
t;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/36ac7ed8-2165-=
43f6-8cf3-a3990f2d0c28_1024x1024.jpeg","fullscreen":null,&qu=
ot;imageSize":null,"height":1024,"width":1024,&quo=
t;resizeWidth":502,"bytes":357269,"alt":null,"=
;title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":=
null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"interna=
lRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"502" height=3D"502" class src=3D"https:=
//substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_502,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressi=
ve:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimag=
es%2F36ac7ed8-2165-43f6-8cf3-a3990f2d0c28_1024x1024.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-inte=
rpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: a=
uto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical=
-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: =
center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color: #808080; font-size: 14px; font-weight:=
400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line-height: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-l=
eft: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-align: center; width: 70%;">Hammer ratio=
s are calculated using aggregate hammer prices divided by aggregate estimat=
es for each quintile. Average estate/Average premium price are included to =
provide additional information on each quintile, they are not calculated in=
the hammer ratio. Premium prices include fees which are not included in es=
timates.</figcaption></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">As the dynamic bidding chart =
reveals, the most competition in these sales came at the lowest price point=
=2E Strong bidding was seen on works es=
timated between $1000 and $30,000. The=
re was also a lot of activity in the $60,000 to $150,000 estimate range. Bi=
dding was weaker but still quite positive in the Middle Low range of $30,00=
0 to $60,000 estimates. Above $150,000, the bidding falls off sharply. Obvi=
ously there were lots at these price points that saw strong competitive bid=
ding. On the whole, the top two quintiles are just priced to a point where =
estimates are aspirational instead of indicative. </p><h2 class=3D"header-w=
ith-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-f=
ont-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit=
-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #40404=
0; font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'S=
egoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe=
UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-=
height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Market Share<=
/h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; =
width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" ce=
llspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><=
tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=
=3D"content" width=3D"496" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-=
link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,=
q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazo=
naws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F62e58d0d-a1b7-4c82-ba37-ca20d45f68fe_1024x1024=
=2Ejpeg" rel style=3D"align-items: cente=
r; border: none; display: block; flex=
-direction: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative=
; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":=
"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/62e58d0d-a=
1b7-4c82-ba37-ca20d45f68fe_1024x1024.jpeg","fullscreen":null=
,"imageSize":null,"height":1024,"width":1024,=
"resizeWidth":496,"bytes":591078,"alt":null,&=
quot;title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href&qu=
ot;:null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"int=
ernalRedirect":null}" alt width=3D"496" height=3D"496" class src=3D"ht=
tps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_496,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progr=
essive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2F=
images%2F62e58d0d-a1b7-4c82-ba37-ca20d45f68fe_1024x1024.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-=
interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; heigh=
t: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vert=
ical-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-ali=
gn: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #4=
04040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The market =
share chart is most significant for lack of a dominating presence. Picasso =
is less than 10% of the overall market. Monet and Warhol don’t even a=
ppear among the top twelve artists by dollars spent. Four artists appear on=
the list primarily because of the value of a single lot. On the whole, the=
se numbers are a positive sign. The art market is getting broader and encom=
passes a greater range of artists and art. There were more than 800 differe=
nt artists represented in these sales. </p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; l=
ine-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: =
1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h4 class=3D"header-with-anchor-wid=
get" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing:=
antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothin=
g: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-family=
: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Robo=
to, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'S=
egoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em=
; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">The Unguarded Market: Is a =
Sale without Guarantees Pure or Just Naked?</h4><div class=3D"captioned-ima=
ge-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 3=
2px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"i=
mage-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"=
0" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-ali=
gn: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" style=
=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"=
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep=
/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F129=
00de2-37f4-4b41-85df-305760fecba3_2062x1624.png" rel style=3D"align-items: =
center; border: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto;=
margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: a=
uto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{"src":"https://substack-post-media=
=2Es3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12900=
de2-37f4-4b41-85df-305760fecba3_2062x1=
624.png","fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"=
height":1147,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"=
;bytes":7719621,"alt":null,"title":null,"type=
":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold"=
:true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null}" alt wi=
dth=3D"550" height=3D"433.2760989010989" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https:=
//substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progress=
ive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fima=
ges%2F12900de2-37f4-4b41-85df-305760fecba3_2062x1624.png" style=3D"-ms-inte=
rpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: a=
uto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical=
-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: =
center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color: #808080; font-size: 14px; font-weight:=
400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line-height: 20px; margin-top: 8px; padding-l=
eft: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-align: center; width: 70%;">Grace Hartig=
an, On Orchard Street (1957), $1,197,000, the lot in the Fineberg sale with=
the highest hammer ratio</figcaption></figure></div><p style=3D"color: #40=
4040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Aside from b=
uying art, the second favorite pastime in the art world is spinning up with=
theories to explain market behavior. With that in mind, a collector sat at=
breakfast last Friday on the tail end of the 10-day auction cycle trying t=
o explain why the Fineberg collection had caused such a hiccup in the art m=
arket. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 2=
6px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">“I used to think the art market was the nig=
ht of the sale,” the collector prefaced. Here we should add that this=
person is a serious buyer who participates actively in the market—as=
a buyer and seller, as well as acting as an advisor to or agent for others=
=2E That is to say, we’re listeni=
ng to someone involved in all aspects=20=
of the market, including regularly providing third-party guarantees on lots=
=2E “But I now realize that the m=
arket takes place over a longer cycle=20=
in the days and weeks leading up to a sale.”</p><p style=3D"color: #4=
04040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The Fineber=
g estate chose a novel—but more common in recent seasons—strate=
gy to sell their $200 million collection. Following the example of the Soll=
inger collection at Sotheby’s last season, Fineberg’s heirs neg=
otiated for the best possible terms without accepting a guarantee. In an ac=
celerating market, this could have paid off handsomely as it mostly did for=
Sollinger. It is universally accepted that we are no longer in an upward m=
arket. The question was whether the auction houses could match supply and d=
emand to engineer a soft landing. Most everyone views the current market wa=
rily. Too much is changing on too many levels. </p><h5 style=3D"-moz-a=
ppearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webki=
t-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appe=
arance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact Displa=
y', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial=
, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; fon=
t-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;">Naked and Af=
raid</h5><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; ma=
rgin: 0 0 20px 0;">The mystery surrounding Fineberg is why the estate chose=
not to accept any third-party guarantees before the sale. Christie’s=
was transparent after the sale that their feedback from collectors was cau=
tious. Some works by big names were good but not must-have items; some were=
estimated for a different market; still, collectors were circling many of =
the other works with excitement. At breakfast, our collector was frustrated=
not to have been able to put a lock on some of the works in advance by pro=
viding a third-party guarantee at numbers above the advances. As it happene=
d, the collector bid on—and won—at least one lot in the Fineber=
g sale after competitive bidding. This isn’t someone who chickened ou=
t but, as we’ll see, the vibe surrounding the sale did put this perso=
n on the sidelines for some lots.</p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size:=
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Even having previously judge=
d some of the other works good buys at the estimate level, our collector=
212;along with many others judging from the sale results—got spooked =
by the presale buzz and decided not to bid. Why? It turns out the mood of t=
he market plays an important role. With the estate turning down guarantees,=
Christie’s had only one tool left: hit the phones. Specialists calle=
d collectors and dangled the idea that works were going to be sold at whate=
ver the market would bear. As the auction approached, Sotheby’s and P=
hillips had their own compromise sales take place on important lots. That a=
dded to the sense of a market teetering. </p><p style=3D"color: #40404=
0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">At showtime for=
Fineberg, buyers judged the smart move was to err on the side of caution. =
Last Wednesday night, what one reporter tried to describe as a “pure&=
#8221; market because there were no guarantees became a gun-to-the-head mar=
ket, only the most confident could bid. Choosing wrong seemed much riskier =
than just sitting on your paddle and watching. Those who had must-buy works=
were rewarded with far less competition. One advisor left the saleroom aft=
er nabbing an Alex Katz gleefully all but skipping. </p><h5 style=3D"=
-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; =
-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased=
; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: #404040; font-family: 'SF Compact =
Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica,=
Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol=
'; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;">Shock =
Absorbers</h5><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26p=
x; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">One auction hardly a scientific study of guarantees=
but there’s a lot of confusion around the role these market collars =
play. Many market participants complain that guarantees distort prices. The=
y declare loudly in the press that the auction houses are artificially supp=
orting unreal numbers. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; lin=
e-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">One advisor warns that guarantors shou=
ld not be confused with buyers, meaning there are a lot of parties who woul=
d take a guarantee but would not bid competitively. The guarantee is effect=
ively a put option. It gives the guarantor the right to become a seller abo=
ve their price. The downside risk is owning the work but the upside goal is=
just getting paid. For the party who doesn’t really want to own the =
work, the auction holds no positive outcome. Without allowing guarantors to=
participate, the estate unwittingly narrowed the pool of potential bidders=
in a market where buyers already had enough reason to stay home.</p><p sty=
le=3D"color: #404040; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px =
0;">Without the ability to guide the market with the judicious use of third=
-party guarantees, our collector believes, Christie’s was left pushin=
g on string to generate demand. With third-party guarantees in place, our c=
ollector estimates the sale could have made 25% more than the $197 million =
final tally. That’s a pretty big miss—though it is hard to imag=
ine being upset at a $197 million haul. </p><p style=3D"color: #404040=
; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">None of that wou=
ld have held back the repricing the market made last week even as the Fineb=
erg day sale and Sotheby’s day sale both demonstrated that there were=
still animal spirits loose for the right lots. The broader mood of the mar=
ket was bruised with or without Fineberg, our collector has come to accept.=
Had Christie’s been able to put in a market floor with guarantees, i=
t might have cushioned the shock but the market had already turned. Our col=
lector was pretty sanguine about it. “Someone I know recently told me=
, and I think this is right,” our collector concluded, “it̵=
7;s too late to sell and too early to buy.”</p><div style=3D"font-siz=
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