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Subject: What We Learned this Week (2402)
From: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
To: enzo@showfile.com
Message-Id: <20240113134509.3.f7dc2d5828b3dbf6@mg-d1.substack.com>
Date: Sat, 13 Jan 2024 13:45:09 +0000
sender: Artelligence <artelligence@substack.com>
References: <post-140495839@substack.com>
In-Reply-To: <post-140495839@substack.com>
Reply-To: Artelligence
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View this post on the web at https://artelligence.substack.com/p/what-we-le=
arned-this-week-2402

Welcome to Artelligence
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In This Issue
Guillaume Cerutti=E2=80=99s View of the Art Market in 2024: Christie=E2=80=
=99s CEO sees reason to be optimistic about 2024
Heritage Reports $1.76 Billion in 2023 Sales: Dallas coin and collectibles =
house has its best year ever
Rybolovlev Gets His Day in Court: The first week of the civil trial against=
 Sotheby=E2=80=99s started with dull technicalities but ended with raw emot=
ion
Guillaume Cerutti=E2=80=99s view of the art market in 2024
On LinkedIn, Christie=E2=80=99s CEO posted his views on the art market in 2=
024. Even though he predicts tough sledding for works trapped in the middle=
 market where expectations don=E2=80=99t match quality Cerutti is more upbe=
at than you might expect.=20
He cites three reasons: new clients have not stopped coming in; art and lux=
ury objects are still seen as a store of value; and consignors seem to have=
 a =E2=80=9Cmore realistic=E2=80=9D view of appropriate estimates and reser=
ve prices. The real news in the post is that Cerutti believes hammer ratios=
 and sell-through rates for the New York sales have =E2=80=9Cnow reached [a=
] tipping point.=E2=80=9D Citing a metric that balances hammer ratios again=
st sell-through rates, Cerutti believes the two-year slide from Nov 2021 to=
 Nov 2023 is the bottom of the cycle and the market can now rebuild momentu=
m.=20
We can bracket these views with plenty of caveats=E2=80=94Cerutti is trying=
 to build market confidence; using numbers from New York is fairly selectiv=
e even if those sales contribute a significant chunk to the firm=E2=80=99s =
overall business; and, it isn=E2=80=99t fully clear how Cerutti is calculat=
ing his numbers=E2=80=94nevertheless, CEOs rarely stick their necks out to =
make a public call like this. The downside risk is real. Which makes the ca=
ll not easy to ignore.
Heritage Reports $1.76 Billion in 2023 Sales
While the rest of the auction industry was retrenching in 2023 facing a han=
gover from pandemic spending and the new realities of a global economy retr=
enching and readjusting to a long list of challenges, Heritage Auction, the=
 Dallas coin, collectibles and art auction house, posted its best year for =
sales in its 47-year history. Growing by 21 percent from 2022 to 2023, Heri=
tage was able to sell $1.76 billion worth of cultural property. The leading=
 category for Heritage remains coins which accounted for $368.6 million or =
a little more than 20% of gross sales. Other leading categories at Heritage=
 are Sports, Comics and Comic Art, Entertainment, and American art. Among t=
he American art touted in Heritage=E2=80=99s release were works by Andy War=
hol, George Tooker, and Keith Haring.=20
Rybolovlev Gets His Day in Court
Jury trials are about facts. The jury is there to find them. But in the civ=
il litigation between two companies controlled by former Russian potash mag=
nate Dmitry Rybolovlev and Sotheby=E2=80=99s, the facts are really secondar=
y to the case. What matters most is what the jury thinks about the principa=
ls in the story. Are they believable? Do the jurors find them sympathetic?=
=20
Late on Friday afternoon, at the culmination of his testimony in the trial,=
 Rybolovlev gave the jury something wholly unexpected, a jolt of what seeme=
d like genuine emotion. Under cross examination from Sotheby=E2=80=99s lawy=
er, Marcus Asner, Rybolovlev was asked why he had put so much trust in the =
person he thought was acting as his agent in acquiring $2 billion of art, a=
 billion dollars of which Rybolovlev now believes he was overcharged. Throu=
gh an interpreter, the Russian Oligarch=E2=80=94who appears more like a Swi=
ss doctor-turned-pharmaceutical executive in dress and demeanor=E2=80=94see=
med to consider the question before becoming overwhelmed with emotion [ htt=
ps://substack.com/redirect/239e5c01-0918-4d71-8929-dc040be2caa7?j=3DeyJ1Ijo=
iMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY ]. At that point, =
it was no longer clear whether Rybolovlev was referring to Bouvier or Tania=
 Rappo, the close family friend who turned out to be Bouvier=E2=80=99s acco=
mplice, when he turned red-faced and paused to compose himself before sayin=
g that sometimes there are people whom you trust =E2=80=9Ccompletely and ut=
terly.=E2=80=9D
Although he prefaced his remarks by saying he had thought a great deal abou=
t this question recently, it does not appear that nine years after he disco=
vered Bouvier=E2=80=99s dishonesty that he had been able to make much headw=
ay on the question.=C2=A0
That awkward display of emotion may end up being the crucial moment in this=
 trial. The facts in dispute are quite narrow. Bouvier isn=E2=80=99t a part=
y to this case but he is effectively being tried in absentia. The Jury will=
 have to find whether Rybolovlev was defrauded by Bouvier, though there wil=
l be no consequences for Bouvier since he has already settled with Rybolovl=
ev but hasn=E2=80=99t admitted anything. Sotheby=E2=80=99s, on the other ha=
nd, has already stipulated that many of the negotiations that Bouvier claim=
ed were being conducted on Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s behalf, presented in court =
via emails, were entirely fabricated. First, the jury will have to determin=
e if there was fraud (though that seems hardly to be an issue that anyone i=
s contesting); then, the jury will also have to find whether Sotheby=E2=80=
=99s played a role in that fraud.=C2=A0
That=E2=80=99s where Sotheby=E2=80=99s Samuel Vallette comes in. So far, th=
e case against Sotheby=E2=80=99s comes down to some emails Vallette sent pr=
oviding color on the Magritte market and an =E2=82=AC80m valuation he gave =
for a Modigliani sculpture that Rybolovlev thought he was buying with a com=
bination of cash and a Degas painting and then resold as part of a swap wit=
h cash for a Rothko (which he never fully paid for once Bouvier=E2=80=99s d=
eceptions were revealed.)=C2=A0
One example of why facts don=E2=80=99t really matter in this case is the cu=
rious detail that the jury isn=E2=80=99t being told what many of these work=
s Rybolovlev bought for inflated prices were later resold for=E2=80=94even =
though they=E2=80=99re being told the valuations they were bought with and =
the fact that the works were resold. The only prices they=E2=80=99re seeing=
 for the now overly-famous Leonardo or the Modigliani head or the Magritte =
are the prices that Rybolovlev saw or paid and, of course, the prices Bouvi=
er actually paid when he bought the works from their owners ahead of his =
=E2=80=9Cclient.=E2=80=9D
It would appear that the judge, Jesse Furman, has decided those facts are n=
ot relevant. So the jury has not been told that the Leonardo Rybolovlev was=
 overcharged for by nearly $50 million eventually sold for three times what=
 the Russian ex-pat paid. They haven=E2=80=99t been told that the Magritte =
Bouvier bought for $24.1 million in 2011 before charging Rybolovlev $43.5 m=
illion was eventually sold in 2017 for $12 million. The jury heard that Ryb=
olovlev acquired a Modigliani Tete for $37.5 million in cash and a Degas pa=
inting, nominally satisfying a $60 million obligation. The jury also heard =
that Bouvier had paid only $31 million for the carved stone head and that, =
a year later, Rybolovlev swapped it through Bouvier at a nominal value of $=
80 million along with the promise of $60 million in payments for a stunning=
 Rothko. The jury did not hear that the Modigliani head was sold at auction=
 at Sotheby=E2=80=99s for $70 million the same season as the Rothko transac=
tion.
The jury heard that Rybolovlev eventually began to have doubts about Bouvie=
r. There were repeated press reports of lower prices paid on works that Ryb=
olovlev had acquired. The New York Times wrote that Leonardo=E2=80=99s Salv=
atore Mundi has sold for around $80 million which confused Rybolovlev=E2=80=
=99s team because they had paid $127 million. There were stories in Austria=
 that Gustav Klimt=E2=80=99s Water Serpents II sold for $120 million when R=
ybolovlev knew he paid $183 million. When confronted with these reports, Bo=
uvier offered to provide documentation proving the funds were paid to the K=
limts owner. But Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s team demurred.=C2=A0
Not long after that, Rybolovlev met Sandy Heller in St. Barth=E2=80=99s whe=
re the extent of the scheme unraveled. There Rybolovlev learned that the Mo=
digliani nude he bought for $117 million had been sold by Steve Cohen for $=
93.5 million. (The jury was not told that the painting was later sold at au=
ction for $170 million.)
One of the problems with the trial is that Rybolovlev bought art at a parti=
cularly volatile time in the art market. And, of course, whether the works =
eventually sold for more or less makes little difference to the central cla=
im of the case: was the Russian defrauded and by whom.=C2=A0Whether it is t=
o support his own case or really a matter of credulity, Rybolovlev keeps co=
ming back to the idea that he paid up for the works that Bouvier presented =
him, even for ones he did not particularly like, because Sotheby=E2=80=99s =
had blessed them with strong supporting opinions. Could this really be how =
a fearsome Russian oligarch who made his money during the most anarchic and=
 brutal period of Russian capitalism does business?
On the witness stand, Dmitry Rybolovlev recounted his life=E2=80=99s story.=
 Born deep inside Russia, in Perm, he trained as a doctor in the former Sov=
iet Union but came of age during the dismantling of Communism. Partnering f=
irst with his father, he made a lot of money buying and re-selling medical =
supplies. That taste of capitalism sent him  to Moscow where he rose in the=
 securities industry before launching a bank and, eventually, identifying t=
he potash industry as under-developed in Russia despite vast resources. Ryb=
olovlev was one of the first generation to emerge from the country=E2=80=99=
s shock transition to capitalism. A few clever, aggressive young people wer=
e able to acquiring controlling interests in former state enterprises in th=
at period. But the transition created a gangster-style economy that wasn=E2=
=80=99t safe for anyone, especially the rich.=C2=A0
It was in that climate, speaking no French, Rybolovlev moved his family to =
Geneva to keep them safe while he almost lost his stake in Uralkali, the po=
tash concern, to gangsters. The brutality of 1990s Russia in contrast to th=
e safety and opulence of Geneva might explain in some way Rybolovlev=E2=80=
=99s lax approach to spending a third of his net worth on art more than a d=
ecade later.
The family eventually bought a house in Geneva that had been owned by art c=
ollectors. It was wired with spotlights which, Rybolovlev claims, is what m=
otivated him to buy art. The previous owner had put a Chagall in a prominen=
t place. So Rybolovlev sought out a Chagall.=C2=A0
Not speaking French and knowing little about art dealing in Geneva, the Cha=
gall was found for Rybolovlev by the wife of the family dentist, Tania Rapp=
o. Extremely outgoing and resourceful, Rappo had found the Chagall through =
a series of local contacts which made for a classic messy art deal with man=
y intermediaries seeking a commission. The viewing for Chagall=E2=80=99s Gr=
and Crique, Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s first art purchase took place at the Genev=
a Freeport. At the time, Yves Bouvier was the largest tenant at the Freepor=
t through his freight forwarding company. Bouvier would try to expand the F=
reeport concept by building similar facilities that he owned in Singapore a=
nd Luxembourg. Neither succeeded.=C2=A0
Where Bouvier did succeed was in recognizing the opportunity presented by a=
 young Russian billionaire who wants to buy art. In 2002 when Bouvier met R=
ybolovlev, the oligarch was only in his mid-30s. In a very short amount of =
time he had made an enormous amount of money and traveled from the Russian =
provinces to one of the world=E2=80=99s most sophisticated cities. Dependen=
t upon the goodwill of friends like Rappo, one can see how Bouvier seemed t=
o present Rybolovlev with what appeared to be a great opportunity.=C2=A0
A common assumption people make about the Geneva Freeport is that Bouvier=
=E2=80=99s role there gave him knowledge of what works of art were hidden i=
n which storage rooms. He may have gleaned that from his dealings with clie=
nts but officially, there was no access that Bouvier would have had. Rybolo=
lev didn=E2=80=99t know that. And Bouvier wasn=E2=80=99t going to tell him.=
=C2=A0Bouvier promised he could cut out all of the intermediaries and get R=
ybolovlev better deals on the best art.=20
Still, that doesn=E2=80=99t explain why Rybolovlev would decide to spend so=
 much of his own money on art. From 2002 to 2014, Rybolovlev spent 30% of h=
is $7 billion net worth on art, an area he really wasn=E2=80=99t very famil=
iar with and, from the testimony of the manager of his family office and hi=
s own, something he didn=E2=80=99t devote a great deal of time making sure =
he was getting the best deal even though he often expressed skepticism abou=
t the value of works Bouvier was trying to get him to buy.
The trust Rybolovlev put into Bouvier and his crew=E2=80=94Rappo=E2=80=99s =
role seems to have been very important there and Bouvier was seen in court =
via deposition saying that he had paid her $100 million in commissions for =
the introduction to Rybolovlev. The jury heard, though they might not have =
noticed, that when Rybolovlev was approached by outsiders offering works of=
 art, he moved quickly to regain control.=20
When Rybolovlev somehow found himself at Gagosian talking Rothkos, Bouvier =
countered quickly. When Rybolovlev was approached by a friendly biotech ven=
ture capitalist about Leonardo=E2=80=99s Salvatore Mundi, Bouvier moved qui=
ckly to insert himself in the deal by playing upon Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s fea=
rs that any negotiation with a rich Russian would require him to pay more.
The volume and value of Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s art purchases seemed to increa=
se greatly after he cashed out of his holdings in Russia in 2010. That=E2=
=80=99s the same year he bought AS Monaco, the local football club that his=
 investments helped rise to French Ligue 1.=20
So far, Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s lawyers have done a good job showing that Bouv=
ier was a predatory and duplicitous figure. Sotheby=E2=80=99s attorneys hav=
e established that the administration of the Rybolovlev family office left,=
 as Rybolovlev was forced to concede on the stand, =E2=80=9Croom for improv=
ement.=E2=80=9D=20
All of that is really just prologue to the main event next week when Rybolo=
vlev=E2=80=99s lawyers call Sam Vallette as an adverse witness. What the ju=
ry makes of Vallette, like Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s unexpected show of humiliat=
ion and vulnerability, may matter more than any of the facts in the case.=
=C2=A0
As the trial continues on Tuesday, Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s lawyers informed th=
e judge that after testimony from an expert witness on the art market, they=
 planned to have Vallette testify. They also told the judge they planned to=
 call Rybolovlev=E2=80=99s art advisor, Sandy Heller, and Nicholas Acquavel=
la.

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    display: none;
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co=
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    padding: 36px;
    height: 680px;
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co=
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@media screen and (max-width: 840px) {
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 768px) {
  .post {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-header .post-label {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-header .meta-author-wrap.alternative-meta .meta-right-column =
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-footer.use-separators {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-footer.next-prev {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-table {
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  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-userhead-cell,
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@media screen and (min-width: 768px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media all and (-ms-high-contrast: none), (-ms-high-contrast: active) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media (max-width: 420px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 420px) and (max-width: 600px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 480px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 500px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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@media only screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media only screen and (min-width: 630px) {
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@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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layer-progress-bar .audio-player-progress-bar-popup {
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}


@media (min-width: 250px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 300px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 350px) {
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-title {
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@media (min-width: 350px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 400px) {
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}


@media (max-width: 400px) {
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}


@media (min-width: 600px) {
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ner {
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}


@media (max-width: 650px) {
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    min-width: calc(100% - 20px);
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}


@media (max-width: 750px) {
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}


@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
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modal-content > .container {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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modal-content > .container {
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}


@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}
</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;"><im=
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p:0 !important;margin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-=
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one;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0p=
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204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;</div><table role=
=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
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padding=3D"0"><tr><td align=3D"right" style=3D"height: 20px;"><table role=
=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
=3D"0"><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align: middle;"><span class=3D"pencraft pc=
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style=3D"color: unset; list-style: none; margin: 0; text-decoration: unset;=
">Forwarded this email? <a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoi=
aHR0cHM6Ly9hcnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Uuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3N1YnNjcmliZT91dG1fc291cmNlPWV=
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o" style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: none;">What We Learned=
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optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearanc=
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x; font-weight: normal; line-height: 24px; margin: 4px 0 0; margin-top: 12p=
x;">Rybolovlev Shows His Emotions + Guillaume Cerutti sticks his neck out +=
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: none;">Contact Us!</span></a></p><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-heig=
ht: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; mar=
gin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" sty=
le=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antiali=
ased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antia=
liased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family=
: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Robo=
to, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'S=
egoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em=
; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">In This Issue</h2><ol style=
=3D"margin-top: 0; padding: 0;"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Guil=
laume Cerutti&#8217;s View of the Art Market in 2024: </strong><span>Christ=
ie&#8217;s CEO sees reason to be optimistic about 2024</span></p></li><li s=
tyle=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; color: r=
gb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0; margin-botto=
m: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Heritage Reports $1.76 Billion in 2023 Sa=
les: </strong><span>Dallas coin and collectibles house has its best year ev=
er</span></p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;"><p style=3D"box-sizin=
g: border-box; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; =
margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0; padding-left: 4px;"><strong>Rybolovlev Gets Hi=
s Day in Court: </strong><span>The first week of the civil trial against So=
theby&#8217;s started with dull technicalities but ended with raw emotion</=
span></p></li></ol><div style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr s=
tyle=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; pad=
ding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appea=
rance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-ap=
pearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; appearan=
ce: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Di=
splay', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, A=
rial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';=
 font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 =
0.625em 0; position: relative;">Guillaume Cerutti&#8217;s view of the art m=
arket in 2024</h2><div class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"=
font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"ma=
rgin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" b=
order=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Imag=
e2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=
=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D=
"1456" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_bla=
nk" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/d2db9f70-3dc1-432f-80e5-11a19edaf=
b7f?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" re=
l style=3D"align-items: center; border: none; display: block; flex-directio=
n: column; height: auto; margin: 0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-de=
coration: none; width: auto;"><img data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;htt=
ps://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc1bcf27-c374-41e3-=
a2dd-d5f5e0b0c78c_4563x3761.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quo=
t;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1200,=
&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:24668=
86,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image=
/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topIm=
age&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"550" heigh=
t=3D"453.2967032967033" class=3D"wide-image" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com=
/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3=
A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc1bcf27-c3=
74-41e3-a2dd-d5f5e0b0c78c_4563x3761.jpeg" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: =
bicubic; border: none !important; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0 a=
uto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !important; vertical-align: middle; =
width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></=
tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-=
size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">On LinkedIn, Christie&#=
8217;s CEO posted his views on the art market in 2024. Even though he predi=
cts tough sledding for works trapped in the middle market where expectation=
s don&#8217;t match quality Cerutti is more upbeat than you might expect. <=
/p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; =
margin: 0 0 20px 0;">He cites three reasons: new clients have not stopped c=
oming in; art and luxury objects are still seen as a store of value; and co=
nsignors seem to have a &#8220;more realistic&#8221; view of appropriate es=
timates and reserve prices. The real news in the post is that Cerutti belie=
ves hammer ratios and sell-through rates for the New York sales have &#8220=
;now reached [a] tipping point.&#8221; Citing a metric that balances hammer=
 ratios against sell-through rates, Cerutti believes the two-year slide fro=
m Nov 2021 to Nov 2023 is the bottom of the cycle and the market can now re=
build momentum. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; li=
ne-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">We can bracket these views with plent=
y of caveats&#8212;Cerutti is trying to build market confidence; using numb=
ers from New York is fairly selective even if those sales contribute a sign=
ificant chunk to the firm&#8217;s overall business; and, it isn&#8217;t ful=
ly clear how Cerutti is calculating his numbers&#8212;nevertheless, CEOs ra=
rely stick their necks out to make a public call like this. The downside ri=
sk is real. Which makes the call not easy to ignore.</p><div style=3D"font-=
size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: n=
one; height: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-wi=
th-anchor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-fo=
nt-smoothing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-=
font-smoothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64,=
 64, 64); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemF=
ont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji',=
 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold=
; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;"><stron=
g>Heritage Reports $1.76 Billion in 2023 Sales</strong></h2><div class=3D"c=
aptioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px; line-height: 26p=
x; margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"margin: 0 auto; width: 100%;"><tabl=
e class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cel=
lpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-paddi=
ng-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td=
 align=3D"left" class=3D"content" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-align: cente=
r;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/=
redirect/faa98d7e-d868-441d-8638-31907b4cb5a3?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhO=
M3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=3D"align-items: center; b=
order: none; display: block; flex-direction: column; height: auto; margin: =
0; padding: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: auto;"><im=
g data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazo=
naws.com/public/images/9f2a66b7-1133-4c17-9f7c-1a407f7cbec3_1920x1080.png&q=
uot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imag=
eSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:819,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resize=
Width&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1251999,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title=
&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&q=
uot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedire=
ct&quot;:null}" alt width=3D"550" height=3D"309.375" class=3D"wide-image" s=
rc=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_2912,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good=
,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2F=
public%2Fimages%2F9f2a66b7-1133-4c17-9f7c-1a407f7cbec3_1920x1080.png" style=
=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: none !important; display: bloc=
k; height: auto; margin: 0 auto; margin-bottom: 0; max-width: 100% !importa=
nt; vertical-align: middle; width: auto !important;"></a></td><td style=3D"=
text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class=3D"image-c=
aption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box; color: #808080; font-size: 14px; =
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: -.15px; line-height: 20px; margin-top: 8p=
x; padding-left: 15%; padding-right: 15%; text-align: center; width: 70%;">=
Frank Frazetta, Dark Kingdom (1976) $6m</figcaption></figure></div><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0=
 20px 0;">While the rest of the auction industry was retrenching in 2023 fa=
cing a hangover from pandemic spending and the new realities of a global ec=
onomy retrenching and readjusting to a long list of challenges, Heritage Au=
ction, the Dallas coin, collectibles and art auction house, posted its best=
 year for sales in its 47-year history. Growing by 21 percent from 2022 to =
2023, Heritage was able to sell $1.76 billion worth of cultural property. T=
he leading category for Heritage remains coins which accounted for $368.6 m=
illion or a little more than 20% of gross sales. Other leading categories a=
t Heritage are Sports, Comics and Comic Art, Entertainment, and American ar=
t. Among the American art touted in Heritage&#8217;s release were works by =
Andy Warhol, George Tooker, and Keith Haring. </p><div style=3D"font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"background: #e0e0e0; border: none; h=
eight: 1px; margin: 32px 0; padding: 0;"></div><h2 class=3D"header-with-anc=
hor-widget" style=3D"-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility; -moz-osx-font-smo=
othing: antialiased; -webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility; -webkit-font-s=
moothing: antialiased; appearance: optimizelegibility; color: rgb(64, 64, 6=
4); font-family: 'SF Compact Display', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, '=
Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Sego=
e UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol'; font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: bold; line=
-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0; position: relative;">Rybolovlev G=
ets His Day in Court</h2><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Jury trials are about facts. The=
 jury is there to find them. But in the civil litigation between two compan=
ies controlled by former Russian potash magnate Dmitry Rybolovlev and Sothe=
by&#8217;s, the facts are really secondary to the case. What matters most i=
s what the jury thinks about the principals in the story. Are they believab=
le? Do the jurors find them sympathetic? </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64,=
 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Late o=
n Friday afternoon, at the culmination of his testimony in the trial, Rybol=
ovlev gave the jury something wholly unexpected, a jolt of what seemed like=
 genuine emotion. Under cross examination from Sotheby&#8217;s lawyer, Marc=
us Asner, Rybolovlev was asked why he had put so much trust in the person h=
e thought was acting as his agent in acquiring $2 billion of art, a billion=
 dollars of which Rybolovlev now believes he was overcharged. Through an in=
terpreter, the Russian Oligarch&#8212;who appears more like a Swiss doctor-=
turned-pharmaceutical executive in dress and demeanor&#8212;</span><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/239e5c01-0918-4d71-8929-dc040be2caa7?j=3D=
eyJ1IjoiMjdjZXI5In0.nCNhOM3c1d0jQmMpisrMe5iRnigHXx6Fx_g6pp7gWdY" rel style=
=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); text-decoration: underline;">seemed to consider=
 the question before becoming overwhelmed with emotion</a><span>. At that p=
oint, it was no longer clear whether Rybolovlev was referring to Bouvier or=
 Tania Rappo, the close family friend who turned out to be Bouvier&#8217;s =
accomplice, when he turned red-faced and paused to compose himself before s=
aying that sometimes there are people whom you trust &#8220;completely and =
utterly.&#8221;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16=
px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Although he prefaced his remark=
s by saying he had thought a great deal about this question recently, it do=
es not appear that nine years after he discovered Bouvier&#8217;s dishonest=
y that he had been able to make much headway on the question.&#160;</p><p s=
tyle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin:=
 0 0 20px 0;">That awkward display of emotion may end up being the crucial =
moment in this trial. The facts in dispute are quite narrow. Bouvier isn&#8=
217;t a party to this case but he is effectively being tried in absentia. T=
he Jury will have to find whether Rybolovlev was defrauded by Bouvier, thou=
gh there will be no consequences for Bouvier since he has already settled w=
ith Rybolovlev but hasn&#8217;t admitted anything. Sotheby&#8217;s, on the =
other hand, has already stipulated that many of the negotiations that Bouvi=
er claimed were being conducted on Rybolovlev&#8217;s behalf, presented in =
court via emails, were entirely fabricated. First, the jury will have to de=
termine if there was fraud (though that seems hardly to be an issue that an=
yone is contesting); then, the jury will also have to find whether Sotheby&=
#8217;s played a role in that fraud.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64=
, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">That&#8217;=
s where Sotheby&#8217;s Samuel Vallette comes in. So far, the case against =
Sotheby&#8217;s comes down to some emails Vallette sent providing color on =
the Magritte market and an &#8364;80m valuation he gave for a Modigliani sc=
ulpture that Rybolovlev thought he was buying with a combination of cash an=
d a Degas painting and then resold as part of a swap with cash for a Rothko=
 (which he never fully paid for once Bouvier&#8217;s deceptions were reveal=
ed.)&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">One example of why facts don&#8217;t really=
 matter in this case is the curious detail that the jury isn&#8217;t being =
told what many of these works Rybolovlev bought for inflated prices were la=
ter resold for&#8212;even though they&#8217;re being told the valuations th=
ey were bought with and the fact that the works were resold. The only price=
s they&#8217;re seeing for the now overly-famous Leonardo or the Modigliani=
 head or the Magritte are the prices that Rybolovlev saw or paid and, of co=
urse, the prices Bouvier actually paid when he bought the works from their =
owners ahead of his &#8220;client.&#8221;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64,=
 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>It wou=
ld appear that the judge, Jesse Furman, has decided those facts are not rel=
evant. So the jury has not been told that the Leonardo Rybolovlev was overc=
harged for by nearly $50 million eventually sold for three times what the R=
ussian ex-pat paid. They haven&#8217;t been told that the Magritte Bouvier =
bought for $24.1 million in 2011 before charging Rybolovlev $43.5 million w=
as eventually sold in 2017 for $12 million. The jury heard that Rybolovlev =
acquired a Modigliani </span><em>Tete </em><span>for $37.5 million in cash =
and a Degas painting, nominally satisfying a $60 million obligation. The ju=
ry also heard that Bouvier had paid only $31 million for the carved stone h=
ead and that, a year later, Rybolovlev swapped it through Bouvier at a nomi=
nal value of $80 million along with the promise of $60 million in payments =
for a stunning Rothko. The jury did not hear that the Modigliani head was s=
old at auction at Sotheby&#8217;s for $70 million the same season as the Ro=
thko transaction.</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: =
16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>The jury heard that Ryb=
olovlev eventually began to have doubts about Bouvier. There were repeated =
press reports of lower prices paid on works that Rybolovlev had acquired. <=
/span><em>The New York Times</em><span> wrote that Leonardo&#8217;s </span>=
<em>Salvatore Mundi</em><span> has sold for around $80 million which confus=
ed Rybolovlev&#8217;s team because they had paid $127 million. There were s=
tories in Austria that Gustav Klimt&#8217;s </span><em>Water Serpents II </=
em><span>sold for $120 million when Rybolovlev knew he paid $183 million. W=
hen confronted with these reports, Bouvier offered to provide documentation=
 proving the funds were paid to the Klimts owner. But Rybolovlev&#8217;s te=
am demurred.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size:=
 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Not long after that, Rybolov=
lev met Sandy Heller in St. Barth&#8217;s where the extent of the scheme un=
raveled. There Rybolovlev learned that the Modigliani nude he bought for $1=
17 million had been sold by Steve Cohen for $93.5 million. (The jury was no=
t told that the painting was later sold at auction for $170 million.)</p><p=
 style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margi=
n: 0 0 20px 0;">One of the problems with the trial is that Rybolovlev bough=
t art at a particularly volatile time in the art market. And, of course, wh=
ether the works eventually sold for more or less makes little difference to=
 the central claim of the case: was the Russian defrauded and by whom.&#160=
;Whether it is to support his own case or really a matter of credulity, Ryb=
olovlev keeps coming back to the idea that he paid up for the works that Bo=
uvier presented him, even for ones he did not particularly like, because So=
theby&#8217;s had blessed them with strong supporting opinions. Could this =
really be how a fearsome Russian oligarch who made his money during the mos=
t anarchic and brutal period of Russian capitalism does business?</p><p sty=
le=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0=
 0 20px 0;">On the witness stand, Dmitry Rybolovlev recounted his life&#821=
7;s story. Born deep inside Russia, in Perm, he trained as a doctor in the =
former Soviet Union but came of age during the dismantling of Communism. Pa=
rtnering first with his father, he made a lot of money buying and re-sellin=
g medical supplies. That taste of capitalism sent him  to Moscow where he r=
ose in the securities industry before launching a bank and, eventually, ide=
ntifying the potash industry as under-developed in Russia despite vast reso=
urces. Rybolovlev was one of the first generation to emerge from the countr=
y&#8217;s shock transition to capitalism. A few clever, aggressive young pe=
ople were able to acquiring controlling interests in former state enterpris=
es in that period. But the transition created a gangster-style economy that=
 wasn&#8217;t safe for anyone, especially the rich.&#160;</p><p style=3D"co=
lor: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px =
0;">It was in that climate, speaking no French, Rybolovlev moved his family=
 to Geneva to keep them safe while he almost lost his stake in Uralkali, th=
e potash concern, to gangsters. The brutality of 1990s Russia in contrast t=
o the safety and opulence of Geneva might explain in some way Rybolovlev&#8=
217;s lax approach to spending a third of his net worth on art more than a =
decade later.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-=
height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The family eventually bought a house in =
Geneva that had been owned by art collectors. It was wired with spotlights =
which, Rybolovlev claims, is what motivated him to buy art. The previous ow=
ner had put a Chagall in a prominent place. So Rybolovlev sought out a Chag=
all.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-hei=
ght: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>Not speaking French and knowing littl=
e about art dealing in Geneva, the Chagall was found for Rybolovlev by the =
wife of the family dentist, Tania Rappo. Extremely outgoing and resourceful=
, Rappo had found the Chagall through a series of local contacts which made=
 for a classic messy art deal with many intermediaries seeking a commission=
=2E The viewing for Chagall&#8217;s </s=
pan><em>Grand Crique, </em><span>Rybol=
ovlev&#8217;s first art purchase</span><em> </em><span>took place at the Ge=
neva Freeport. At the time, Yves Bouvier was the largest tenant at the Free=
port through his freight forwarding company. Bouvier would try to expand th=
e Freeport concept by building similar facilities that he owned in Singapor=
e and Luxembourg. Neither succeeded.&#160;</span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb=
(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Wher=
e Bouvier did succeed was in recognizing the opportunity presented by a you=
ng Russian billionaire who wants to buy art. In 2002 when Bouvier met Rybol=
ovlev, the oligarch was only in his mid-30s. In a very short amount of time=
 he had made an enormous amount of money and traveled from the Russian prov=
inces to one of the world&#8217;s most sophisticated cities. Dependent upon=
 the goodwill of friends like Rappo, one can see how Bouvier seemed to pres=
ent Rybolovlev with what appeared to be a great opportunity.&#160;</p><p st=
yle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0 0 20px 0;">A common assumption people make about the Geneva Freeport is t=
hat Bouvier&#8217;s role there gave him knowledge of what works of art were=
 hidden in which storage rooms. He may have gleaned that from his dealings =
with clients but officially, there was no access that Bouvier would have ha=
d. Rybololev didn&#8217;t know that. And Bouvier wasn&#8217;t going to tell=
 him.&#160;Bouvier promised he could cut out all of the intermediaries and =
get Rybolovlev better deals on the best art. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64,=
 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">Still, t=
hat doesn&#8217;t explain why Rybolovlev would decide to spend so much of h=
is own money on art. From 2002 to 2014, Rybolovlev spent 30% of his $7 bill=
ion net worth on art, an area he really wasn&#8217;t very familiar with and=
, from the testimony of the manager of his family office and his own, somet=
hing he didn&#8217;t devote a great deal of time making sure he was getting=
 the best deal even though he often expressed skepticism about the value of=
 works Bouvier was trying to get him to buy.</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, =
64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The trust=
 Rybolovlev put into Bouvier and his crew&#8212;Rappo&#8217;s role seems to=
 have been very important there and Bouvier was seen in court via depositio=
n saying that he had paid her $100 million in commissions for the introduct=
ion to Rybolovlev. The jury heard, though they might not have noticed, that=
 when Rybolovlev was approached by outsiders offering works of art, he move=
d quickly to regain control. </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-s=
ize: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;"><span>When Rybolovlev so=
mehow found himself at Gagosian talking Rothkos, Bouvier countered quickly.=
 When Rybolovlev was approached by a friendly biotech venture capitalist ab=
out Leonardo&#8217;s </span><em>Salvatore Mundi</em><span>, Bouvier moved q=
uickly to insert himself in the deal by playing upon Rybolovlev&#8217;s fea=
rs that any negotiation with a rich Russian would require him to pay more.<=
/span></p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height:=
 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">The volume and value of Rybolovlev&#8217;s art =
purchases seemed to increase greatly after he cashed out of his holdings in=
 Russia in 2010. That&#8217;s the same year he bought AS Monaco, the local =
football club that his investments helped rise to French Ligue 1. </p><p st=
yle=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: =
0 0 20px 0;">So far, Rybolovlev&#8217;s lawyers have done a good job showin=
g that Bouvier was a predatory and duplicitous figure. Sotheby&#8217;s atto=
rneys have established that the administration of the Rybolovlev family off=
ice left, as Rybolovlev was forced to concede on the stand, &#8220;room for=
 improvement.&#8221; </p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 64, 64); font-size: 16p=
x; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0;">All of that is really just prolo=
gue to the main event next week when Rybolovlev&#8217;s lawyers call Sam Va=
llette as an adverse witness. What the jury makes of Vallette, like Rybolov=
lev&#8217;s unexpected show of humiliation and vulnerability, may matter mo=
re than any of the facts in the case.&#160;</p><p style=3D"color: rgb(64, 6=
4, 64); font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0 0 20px 0; margin-bott=
om: 0;">As the trial continues on Tuesday, Rybolovlev&#8217;s lawyers infor=
med the judge that after testimony from an expert witness on the art market=
, they planned to have Vallette testify. They also told the judge they plan=
ned to call Rybolovlev&#8217;s art advisor, Sandy Heller, and Nicholas Acqu=
avella.&#160;</p></div></div><div class=3D"container-border" style=3D"borde=
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