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Date: Wed, 8 Apr 2026 15:06:31 +0100
From: "Emma Wilks (HSBC Research)" <HSBC.Research@hsbcib.com>
Reply-To: Emma Wilks <emma.wilks@hsbc.com>
To: <SALES@HYPERFLIGHT.CO.UK>
Message-ID: <1912950488.215840.1775657191016@kvm-gbl25209359-scamps-email-scheduler-cluster-research>
Subject: UK in Focus : Essential UK economic news for businesses
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
nter" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; border-spac=
ing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;"><a target=3D"_blank" href=3D"htt=
ps://research.hsbc.com/" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration:=
none;"> <img width=3D"100%" src=3D"cid:templates.assets.headers.economics.=
png@hsbc.com" alt=3D"HSBC Top Banner" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: blo=
ck; line-height: 100%; outline: none; text-decoration: none;"> </a></td>
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<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;color: rgb(118, 118, 118);"><sp=
an>Economics : United Kingdom</span> | <span>08-Apr-26</span></h4></td>
</tr><!-- Document Title -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<h1 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.5em; font-weight: bold;">UK in Focus</h1>
<h2 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-ser=
if; font-size: 1.125em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.625em;">Essential U=
K economic news for businesses</h2></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
</tr><!-- Top Synopsis -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; border-=
spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<ul style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;list-style-position: ins=
ide;">
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>The latest energy sh=
ock points to an undesirable mix of higher inflation and slower growth=E2=
=80=A6</span></li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
=E2=80=A6but it's not like 2022, so the policy response will likely differ<=
/span></li>
<li style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, san=
s-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;margin-top: 0.875em;"><span>=
The bar to hike rates is high, in our view, but uncertainty is also very hi=
gh </span></li>
</ul></td>
</tr><!-- Video Thumbnail --> <!-- Report Link -->
<tr>
<td style=3D"padding-top: 1em;"><a href=3D"https://www.resea=
rch.hsbc.com/R/20/vqzfv9mfCvSZ" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-deco=
ration: none;font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weigh=
t: normal;background-color:#020202; text-decoration: none; padding: .5em 2e=
m; color: #FCFDFF; display:inline-block; mso-padding-alt:0;text-underline-c=
olor:#020202"> <!--[if mso]><i style=3D"mso-font-width:200%;mso-text-raise:=
100%" hidden> </i><span style=3D"mso-text-raise:50%;"><![endif]--> <sp=
an>Read report</span> <span>( <span>5</span> <span>pages</span> )</span> <!=
--[if mso]></span><i style=3D"mso-font-width:200%;" hidden> ​</i=
><![endif]--> </a></td>
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</table></td>
</tr>
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<hr style=3D"margin: 0; border-width: 0; background: rgb(233, 2=
34, 233); color: rgb(233, 234, 233); height: 0.1em;"></td>
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=
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spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign=3D"top" style=3D"vertical-align: top"><img width=
=3D"50" height=3D"66" src=3D"cid:analysts.mbXGZ.jpg@hsbc.com" alt=3D"Analys=
t photo" style=3D"border: 0 none; display: block; line-height: 100%; outlin=
e: none; text-decoration: none;"></td>
<td style=3D"width: 100%;padding-left: 1em;">
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: bold;"><span>Emma Wilks</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.75em; font-weight: normal;"><span>UK Economist</span><b=
r><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15); =
text-decoration: none;">emma=E2=80=8B.wilks=E2=80=8B@hsbc=E2=80=8B.com</a><=
br><a href=3D"https://www.research.hsbc.com/S/10/s/analyst/mbXGZ" style=3D"=
color: rgb(179, 15, 15); text-decoration: none;color: rgb(32, 57, 157);"> <=
span>Subscribe to </span> <span>Emma</span> <span>'s</span> <span> research=
</span> </a></p></td>
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<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" wid=
th=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; borde=
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ay: inline-block; width: 9.6em; max-width: 9.6em">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"=
width=3D"100%" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; b=
order-spacing: 0; width: 100%;">
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<td><a href=3D"mailto:emma.wilks@hsbc.com?subject=3D=
Meeting%20Request&cc=3Daskresearch@hsbc.com&body=3DHello%20Emma%2C%=
20I%20am%20interested%20in%20your%20report%20on%20%27UK%20in%20Focus%20%3A%=
20Essential%20UK%20economic%20news%20for%20businesses%27%20and%20would%20li=
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<h4 style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans=
-serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: bold;"><span>An energy shock weake=
ns the outlook and brings greater uncertainty</span></h4>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>The =
Middle East conflict and resulting energy shock has made the UK's narrow pa=
th to recovery in 2026 even narrower. The spike in energy prices in March, =
damage to energy infrastructure, and effective closure of the Strait of Hor=
muz, has created a less favourable mix of higher inflation and slower growt=
h. In our base case scenario, the conflict is resolved relatively swiftly, =
oil prices fall back, inflation peaks at 3.4% in November, and rate cuts ar=
e delayed to 2027. However, uncertainty is high and how the conflict evolve=
s will be crucial for the UK economy in 2026 and 2027.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>That=
said, the interest rate policy reaction to the latest energy shock is unli=
kely to be comparable to that of 2022. Why? The size of the immediate energ=
y shock is smaller, interest rates are already restrictive, widespread fisc=
al support is unlikely, and the economic backdrop is vastly different. That=
starting point matters. Unlike 2022, UK economic growth is below potential=
, unemployment has been rising, wage growth cooling, and price pressures in=
the broader economy are weaker. Indeed, consumer confidence has been subdu=
ed for some time, and the initial reaction in the March survey saw just a 2=
pt decline, although that may fall further as higher prices begin to pinch =
and there is less scope to rely on savings to smooth consumption.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>Ther=
efore, while we think that the risks to our inflation outlook are to the up=
side =E2=80=93 given the degree of uncertainty and potential for a more pro=
tracted conflict than assumed in our base case =E2=80=93 the bar for the Bo=
E to hike, in our view, is high. That upside risk is reflected in the recen=
t volatility of financial conditions. But policy makers at the BoE will not=
want to overreact to an energy shock and place undue pressure on an alread=
y weak economy.</span></p>
<p style=3D"margin: 0; padding: 0;font-family: Arial, sans-=
serif; font-size: 0.875em; font-weight: normal;margin-top: 1em;"><span>None=
theless, the BoE will be on high alert to signs that inflation pressures sp=
read beyond the mechanical energy uplift, and lead to a de-anchoring of inf=
lation expectations. So far, firms have not reported a significant rise in =
their own expected price growth and 3-yr CPI expectations remain stable. Th=
e prospect of weaker demand may be of greater concern to the services secto=
r. Even if price pressures do begin to rise, limited pricing power may limi=
t the pass through, notwithstanding the strain on margins and subsequently =
possible weaker investment and employment growth. In our view, unemployment=
will continue to rise over the next year. For more information on our proj=
ections for the UK and European economies (see </span> <a href=3D"https://w=
ww.research.hsbc.com/R/84/TsH7Qflvqzfv9m" style=3D"color: rgb(179, 15, 15);=
text-decoration: none;">European Economics Quarterly, 23 March 2026</a> <s=
pan>).</span></p></td>
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